> In generational dynamics, the generation types are distinct, but
> unlike Howe and strauss's theory, there are no lengths assigned to
> them. So my question is in what years surrounding the crisis are
> the different generations born.
> Prophets have no memory of the crisis war, so I would expect their
> generation to begin 3-5 years before the crisis war, and artists
> remember it as children but did not fight in it/weren't adults, in
> which I would expect their generation to begin maybe 18-20 years
> before the crisis climax. Am I correct in assuming this? And what
> determines the boundaries of the nomad and hero
Here's some general information that I've posted before:
There's a difference between a crisis era and a crisis war. A crisis
war can also start during the Unraveling era or during the Fifth
Turning that follows a Crisis Era, if no crisis war has occurred up to
Once a series of Regeneracy events trigger a new crisis war, it
gathers strength until there's a crisis war climax. America's three
crisis wars lasted 7 years, 5 years, and 4 years, respectively, so
that appears to be a typical time range. Institutional upheaval does
not count as crisis war.
A crisis war climax triggers the beginning of a new saeculum cycle.
The era time spans are pretty much fixed, since they depend on
generational changes, which are irreversible. In particular, they are
not event driven, as some claim. The Crisis Era begins at a certain
time, irrespective of events.
The timeline following a crisis war climax is roughly as follows:
climax + 0 years: Recovery Era
climax + 15 years: Awakening Era
climax + 36 years: Unraveling Era
climax + 58 years: Crisis Era
climax + 78 years: Fifth Turning
Those time spans are pretty much fixed since generational transitions
are fixed. The only transition that's caused by events is the
Regeneracy, which is the point where a non-crisis war turns into a
crisis war. Regeneracy events can trigger a new crisis war at any
time, but the probability that an event will trigger a new crisis war
is very small during the Recovery and Awakening eras, and then
increases as the eras flow, until the crisis era makes the probability
fairly high. Basically, the probability of an event triggering a new
crisis war is negatively correlated to the percentage of the
population that are in generations that survived the previous crisis
war. Thus, there are no sharp divisions between the eras, but gradual
changes that accumulate.
If an unexpected mass invasion occurs during an Awakening era, then
the country will fight (or not fight) with Awakening era behaviors.
But if the invasion is sufficiently brutal, then there'll be a "First
Turning reset," meaning that the country will return to a Recovery Era
following the war climax. This seems to occur most frequently when
mass migrations are forced on a population during an Awakening era.
Here's a table of inter-crisis periods that I posted over ten years
ago. It shows the number of years past the end of the previous crisis
war that the new crisis war starts.
> LENGTH OF INTER-CRISIS PERIOD
> # years of total Turning
> ------- -------- ------------------
> 0- 40 0% 1T, 2T
> 41- 49 11% first half of 3T
> 50- 59 33% second half of 3T
> 60- 69 25% first half of 4T
> 70- 79 16% second half of 4T
> 80- 89 4% fifth turning
> 90- 99 6%
> 100-117 5%
The standard Time Magazine definition of Gen-X starts them in birth
year 1963 or 1964.
But from the point of view of generational theory, what matters is
when a child is old enough to know what's going on, and is able to
adopt generational attitudes and behaviors, usually around five years
old. So in generational theory, the Boomers start from birth year
1942, and the Gen-Xers start from birth year 1959.