The Silent Generation, the Baby Boomer Generation, Generation-X, the Millennial Generation (or Generation-Y) and the Pivotal Generation (Generation Z)
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Post by CrosstimbersOkie »

I missed it if it was discussed elsewhere. I see from the weblog that John believes that the Fourth Turning began in 2003. Why then?

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Re: 2003?

Post by John »

CrosstimbersOkie wrote: > I missed it if it was discussed elsewhere. I see from the weblog
> that John believes that the Fourth Turning began in 2003. Why
> then?
Here's some material I've written before.

The Crisis Era (Fourth Turning) begins when the previous Artist
generation completely loses influence in society, and that happens
almost unvaryingly and inexorably about 58 years after the climax of
the preceding crisis war. So WW II ended in 1945, and 58 years
later is 2003.

Here's an earlier example: The Revolutionary War climaxed in 1782, and
so the Fourth Turning Crisis era began 58 years later, in 1840.

In the 1840 time frame, here's an introductory description to
the Mexican-American war:
The Mexican-American War (1846-1848) marked the first U.S. armed
conflict chiefly fought on foreign soil. It pitted a politically
divided and militarily unprepared Mexico against the
expansionist-minded administration of U.S. President James
K. Polk, who believed the United States had a “manifest destiny”
to spread across the continent to the Pacific Ocean. A border
skirmish along the Rio Grande started off the fighting and was
followed by a series of U.S. victories. When the dust cleared,
Mexico had lost about one-third of its territory, including nearly
all of present-day California, Utah, Nevada, Arizona and New

Causes of the Mexican-American War

Texas gained its independence from Mexico in 1836. Initially, the
United States declined to incorporate it into the union, largely
because northern political interests were against the addition of
a new slave state. The Mexican government was also encouraging
border raids and warning that any attempt at annexation would lead
to war.

Nonetheless, annexation procedures were quickly initiated after
the 1844 election of Polk, who campaigned that Texas should be
“re-annexed” and that the Oregon Territory should be
“re-occupied.” Polk also had his eyes on California, New Mexico
and the rest of what is today the U.S. Southwest. When his offer
to purchase those lands was rejected, he instigated a fight by
moving troops into a disputed zone between the Rio Grande and
Nueces River that both countries had previously recognized as part
of the Mexican state of Coahuila."

So the United States completely reversed policy, becoming much more
belligerent with respect to Mexico between 1836 and 1844. In 1836,
America avoided war. In 1844, America was much more nationalistic,
ready to embrace war because of "manifest destiny." What changed?
What changed was the end of influence of the preceding Artist
generation, and the rise of the new Nomad generation, and that's the
beginning of America's Fourth Turning, or Crisis Era.

Here's an example from modern times.

In 1991, U.S. and coalition forces had ejected Saddam Hussein's Iraq
from Kuwait, but stopped at Iraq's border. It was known with ABSOLUTE
CERTAINTY that Saddam had WMDs, since they had been used against the
Kurds and Iran in 1988. And yet, despite absolutely certainty that
Iraq had WMDs, and might use them again, a decision was made to ignore
them and stop the military action at Iraq's border, leaving the WMD
issue in the hands of U.N. inspectors. The public were simply not
very concerned about known WMDs in Iraq, or that Iraq might use them

In 2003, U.S. forces were nowhere near the border of Iraq. It was
SUSPECTED that there were WMDs in Iraqi labs somewhere. That was
enough to launch a major military action inside Iraq. Whether you
love George Bush or hate him, there's no doubt that the public were
enormously concerned about WMDs in 2003, but were NOT concerned in

What changed? The Silents (the Artists of WW II) lost influence about
58 years after the climax of WW II, and Generation-X (the new Nomad
generation) was rising in 2003. That's when America's new Crisis Era
began. That's what changed between 1991 and 2003, and by the way
that's when all the criminal activity began in the banks, leading to
the current global financial crisis, which is far from over.

Today, once again, WMDs are being used on a daily basis, this
time by Bashar al-Assad in Syria, but nobody gives a shit.

Here are some articles I've written in the past:

** The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e080217

** 1-Jan-16 World View -- 2016 and the 'dramatic multiplication of conflicts in the world'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e160101

** Investors commemorate the false panic of Monday, October 19, 1987
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e071019

** Kenya settles into low-level violence on the way to Rwanda
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e080201

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Re: 2003?

Post by CrosstimbersOkie »

I see. I just never thought of the events of 2003 having the same effect as the events of 2008. And my uncle, whom I'm close to and who is the quintessential Artist (born 1942), didn't retire until 2007. And I think of the Artist Colin Powell who was Secretary of State up until 2005.

I actually like the idea of the Crisis beginning in 2003 because I'm quite ready for it to be over with. However, since we are drawing parallels I'm a parallel to George Patton. He was born in 1885, two years after the first of the Lost Generation arrived. I was born in 1963, two years after the arrival of the first of Generation-X. In 1945 at the close of the Crisis Patton was 60 years old. I'm only 53. And the tail end of my generation haven't entered Midlife yet.

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