A crisis war with the Nomads in charge instead of the Prophets?

The Silent Generation, the Baby Boomer Generation, Generation-X, the Millennial Generation (or Generation-Y) and the Pivotal Generation (Generation Z)
DaKardii
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A crisis war with the Nomads in charge instead of the Prophets?

Post by DaKardii »

The last two crisis wars the United States faced were the Civil War (1861-65) and World War II (1941-45).

Notice that they began exactly 80 years apart and ended exactly 80 years apart. At a first glance, this is a good indication of when the next crisis war will break out: sometime in the early 2020s. That being said, I have observed something very... interesting.

To figure out which generations were in charge during those crisis wars, I looked at (1) the last presidential election prior to the beginning of those wars (1860 and 1940); and (2) the last presidential election prior to the end of those wars (1864 and 1944). Then, I took into account which generations were between the ages of 35 and 80 during those election years, and assigned points to those generations based of the number of years within them that fell on the ages 35 - 80 spectrum. For example:

In 1860, an 80-year-old was born in 1780, as a member of the Compromise Generation. The Compromise Generation consisted of those born between 1767 and 1791, according to Strauss-Howe theory (Strauss-Howe numbers are used in all calculations). So the Compromisers who were between ages 35 and 80 in 1860 were those born between 1780 and 1791. This is a twelve-year period (assuming we start on January 1, 1780 and end on December 31, 1791), and the Compromise Generation therefore gets 12 points for that election year. The generation with the most points is the "dominant generation" following that election and prior to the next. So here are the results based on this methodology:

CIVIL WAR (1861-65)
1860: Compromise (12), Transcendental (30), Gilded (4)
1864: Compromise (8), Transcendental (30), Gilded (8)

WORLD WAR II (1941-45)
1940: Missionary (23), Lost (18), Greatest (5)
1944: Missionary (19), Lost (18), Greatest (9)

THIRD CRISIS WAR (2021-25)
2020: Silent (3), Baby Boomer (18), Generation X (21), Millennials (4)
2024: Baby Boomer (17), Generation X (21), Millennials (8)

Notice that in the Civil War, the dominant generation was the Transcendental Generation. In World War II, it was the Missionary Generation. In the theoretical Third Crisis War of 2021-25, it's Generation X.

Also notice that the Transcendental and Missionary Generations were both Prophet generations. But Generation X is a Nomad generation. For this reason, it is very likely that in the next crisis war, the United States will handle the war much differently than it did with the Civil War or with World War II, because a Nomad generation will be in charge instead of a Prophet generation.

What repercussions do you believe this will have?

John
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Re: A crisis war with the Nomads in charge instead of the Prophets?

Post by John »

One problem with your analysis is that it doesn't take into account
that the US in World War II was triggered by Japan, not be the US.
How would your analysis be affected if Japan had bombed Pearl Harbor
in 1935 or 1945?

Strauss and Howe haven't done any work on generational theory since
1995, so their research and their numbers have been out of date for a
long time. Most of them don't even make sense any more. The
Revolutionary War Crisis era ended in 1781 with the war climax and the
Battle of Yorktown. The next Fourth Turning began 58 years later in
1839, ending in 1859, and so the Civil War began at the beginning of a
Fifth Turning.

The civil war Crisis Era ended in 1865, and the next Fourth Turning
began 58 years later, in 1923. So WW II began right at the end of the
Fourth Turning.

The next Fourth Turning began in 1945+58, or 2003. So today we're
right near the end of the Fourth Turning, just as in the case of WW
II.

Perhaps you could do your analysis based on those figures, but I
believe that the war will be triggered outside of the United States,
such as in the South China Sea, Kashmir or the Middle East.

However, there is one scenario today that's knowable today where the
US might POSSIBLY begin the war, and that would be by attacking North
Korea.

DaKardii
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: A crisis war with the Nomads in charge instead of the Prophets?

Post by DaKardii »

John wrote:One problem with your analysis is that it doesn't take into account
that the US in World War II was triggered by Japan, not be the US.
How would your analysis be affected if Japan had bombed Pearl Harbor
in 1935 or 1945?

Strauss and Howe haven't done any work on generational theory since
1995, so their research and their numbers have been out of date for a
long time. Most of them don't even make sense any more. The
Revolutionary War Crisis era ended in 1781 with the war climax and the
Battle of Yorktown. The next Fourth Turning began 58 years later in
1839, ending in 1859, and so the Civil War began at the beginning of a
Fifth Turning.

The civil war Crisis Era ended in 1865, and the next Fourth Turning
began 58 years later, in 1923. So WW II began right at the end of the
Fourth Turning.

The next Fourth Turning began in 1945+58, or 2003. So today we're
right near the end of the Fourth Turning, just as in the case of WW
II.

Perhaps you could do your analysis based on those figures, but I
believe that the war will be triggered outside of the United States,
such as in the South China Sea, Kashmir or the Middle East.

However, there is one scenario today that's knowable today where the
US might POSSIBLY begin the war, and that would be by attacking North
Korea.
How would you change the years defining the generations that Strauss and Howe put down in their research? I know you consider Baby Boomers to be those born between 1942 and 1959 (Strauss-Howe defines them as 1943-1960), but what about other generations?

Can you please give me years that would define the generations starting with the Transcendentals (the prophet generation during the Civil War turning) so I can re-do my analysis?

John
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Re: A crisis war with the Nomads in charge instead of the Prophets?

Post by John »

DaKardii wrote: > How would you change the years defining the generations that
> Strauss and Howe put down in their research? I know you consider
> Baby Boomers to be those born between 1942 and 1959 (Strauss-Howe
> defines them as 1943-1960), but what about other generations?

> Can you please give me years that would define the generations
> starting with the Transcendentals (the prophet generation during
> the Civil War turning) so I can re-do my analysis?
You can figure them out for yourself. Eras and generations are
generated by numbers of years, starting with the climax of the crisis
war. If a crisis war climaxes in year YYYY, then:

Eras:
YYYY+00 to YYYY+18: Recovery era
YYYY+19 to YYYY+38: Awakening era
YYYY+39 to YYYY+58: Unraveling era
YYYY+59 to YYYY+78: Crisis era
YYYY+79 ..........: Fifth Turning

Birth years of generations:
YYYY-04 to YYYY+14: Prophets
YYYY+15 to YYYY+34: Nomads
YYYY+35 to YYYY+54: Heroes
YYYY+55 to YYYY+74: Artists

Trevor
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Re: A crisis war with the Nomads in charge instead of the Prophets?

Post by Trevor »

Actually, I would say that the nomads were in charge during both the Civil War and WWII. If you consider that for the post-revolutionary generation, the Nomads began around 1800 and post civil-war around 1880. While there were a few prophets around during each of those crisis wars, by and large, it was run by the nomads. With our war of independence considering the gap was close to a century, I expect many of the early hero generation was in charge as well.

I admit, when it comes to Colonial America, it does seem that not all the colonies were on the same timeline, though I haven't been able to deduce specifics. I believe that the New England were farthest into a crisis era, since they were the first to rebel.

One of the things Strauss and Howe believed was that the civil war came around 10 years too early, since they had a difficult time finding a hero generation. I'd attribute that to the fact that the crisis war was a Civil War. Nobody feels heroic and triumphant after a civil war, even if they're on the winning side.

More than once, I've wondered why Howe hasn't done anything more on his theory. Most of his recent work seems to center around marketing to millennials.

John
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Re: A crisis war with the Nomads in charge instead of the Prophets?

Post by John »

The nomads are in charge today. Trump is a Boomer, but the people who
make policy and do the work are Gen-Xers.

I believe that Strauss rather than Howe was the sharp one.

DaKardii
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: A crisis war with the Nomads in charge instead of the Prophets?

Post by DaKardii »

John wrote:
DaKardii wrote: > How would you change the years defining the generations that
> Strauss and Howe put down in their research? I know you consider
> Baby Boomers to be those born between 1942 and 1959 (Strauss-Howe
> defines them as 1943-1960), but what about other generations?

> Can you please give me years that would define the generations
> starting with the Transcendentals (the prophet generation during
> the Civil War turning) so I can re-do my analysis?
You can figure them out for yourself. Eras and generations are
generated by numbers of years, starting with the climax of the crisis
war. If a crisis war climaxes in year YYYY, then:

Eras:
YYYY+00 to YYYY+18: Recovery era
YYYY+19 to YYYY+38: Awakening era
YYYY+39 to YYYY+58: Unraveling era
YYYY+59 to YYYY+78: Crisis era
YYYY+79 ..........: Fifth Turning

Birth years of generations:
YYYY-04 to YYYY+14: Prophets
YYYY+15 to YYYY+34: Nomads
YYYY+35 to YYYY+54: Heroes
YYYY+55 to YYYY+74: Artists
Thank you, John. Here's what I got based on these alternate numbers:

1860: Civil War Prophets (16), Transcendentals (20), Gildeds (10)
1864: Civil War Prophets (12), Transcendentals (20), Gildeds (14)

1940: Fifth turning (1), Missionaries (19), Lost (20), GIs (6)
1944: Missionaries (16), Lost (20), GIs (10)

2020: Fifth turning (1), Baby Boomers (19), Generation X (20), Millennials (6)
2024: Baby Boomers (16), Generation X (20), Millennials (10)

Based on your numbers, it appears that the Nomad generations were indeed the largest generation in leadership during the last two crisis wars after all. Now I'm more relieved. Because of my initial flawed analysis, I feared that we could be in for something bad, as I initially believed a different generation type was in charge.

While we're on that subject, how would different generation types handle a crisis war if they were in charge of the country? This of course is assuming that a crisis war breaks out early (in the case of the Artist generation of the previous saeculum or the Prophet generation of the current saeculum) or late (in the case of the Hero generation of the current saeculum or the Artist generation of the current saeculum).
Last edited by DaKardii on Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

John
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Re: A crisis war with the Nomads in charge instead of the Prophets?

Post by John »

A generational crisis war is always bad, no matter who's in charge.

falopex
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Re: A crisis war with the Nomads in charge instead of the Prophets?

Post by falopex »

Trevor wrote:I admit, when it comes to Colonial America, it does seem that not all the colonies were on the same timeline, though I haven't been able to deduce specifics. I believe that the New England were farthest into a crisis era, since they were the first to rebel.
I have some thoughts on this.

The earliest colonies developed in Virgina and farther south. These colonists had a very "corporate" mindset and thought of themselves as still being Englishmen. They set out to exploit the agrarian assets of the region, and sowed the seeds for the plantation south. They were opposed by the Powhatan natives from the very beginning, and the Powhatans played a major part in the colonists' first Crisis. (The second Crisis being the American Revolution.)

Later colonies, running perhaps a generation or less apart from the earlier ones, focused more to the north in New England and beyond. These settlers were largely refugees fleeing persecution (such as the pilgrims on the Mayflower) and felt little loyalty to the Crown. They were initially well received by the Wampanoag and other local tribes, but this turned to increasing friction as the settlers exceeded the land allotted to them, and it is with the Wampanoag and their allies that these northern colonies struggled during their first Crisis. They relied less on slavery, with some colonies banning it from the beginning on religious grounds, and set the seeds for the industrial north.

Approaching the Revolution Crisis, the two sets of colonies begin to entrain into a single timeline, but they each had very different characters. This made them allies against the Crown, but also pitted them against each other on key issues such as slavery, which was a major point of contention in trying to adopt the Declaration of Independence. For the sake of Independence, many of these dividing issues were reluctantly compromised, thus setting the stage for the Civil War Crisis one cycle later, when all the compromises would fall apart.
Ray Henry (falopex)

falopex
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Re: A crisis war with the Nomads in charge instead of the Prophets?

Post by falopex »

John wrote:A generational crisis war is always bad, no matter who's in charge.
I concur. The generational makeup at the beginning of a Crisis may color how it begins, but those distinctions become increasingly irrelevant as the Climax of the Crisis approaches. In the end, all generational roads eventually lead to the same saecular Rome.
Ray Henry (falopex)

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