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One Generation Might Decide the 2020 U.S. Election?

Posted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:50 pm
by OceanGazer
I’m new here; looks like a lot of great discussion has happened here. I’d like to bring up a topic that seems appropriate and timely: I heard a fascinating discussion yesterday on radio about how Generation Jones might play a big role on election day this Tuesday. I assume people here are aware of Generation Jones (born mid-1950s to mid-1960s, between the Boomers and GenX), although I’m surprised that there isn’t more discussion about Jones here. Anyway, one of the radio guests said that early voter data from early voters and other polling (including enthusiasm levels, etc.) indicate that there is going to be a disproportionally big turnout among GOP Jonesers on election day. He and another expert on the show both felt that this Generation Jones turnout could be enough to give Trump the win. Apparently, huge Jones turnout for Bush in 2004 gave him the win, and these experts were saying that there are numerous commonalities between these two elections/situations.

I found this so interesting that I researched it today, and am curious what generation aficionados like you think about this. Here’s some of the articles (excerpts/links) I found in my research today:

Medium, October 29: ... 98b3bc0051

“The widely discussed Trump-has-lost-the-seniors narrative focuses on the 65+ crowd and misses this key point. Those aged mid-50’s to mid-60’s have not left Trump. In fact, this is the generational cohort which has polled highest for Trump throughout 2020. In many polls, it’s the only age group to favor him, and often by large margins. Some signs point to a massive turnout by this segment on election day itself. In studying generational electoral data for over twenty years, I’ve rarely seen a generation in such a potentially pivotal position.

Can Generation Jones be stoked by grievance to save a controversial, non-popular-vote-elected GOP President? It’s happened before. In 2004, like 2020, there were relatively few persuadable voters. Bush masterfully used grievance with cultural wedge issues to turn out his largely GenJones base…That support coalesced dramatically in the closing days…As the Polling Report’s post-election cover story concluded: “History will show that one generation of voters – Generation Jones -- provided the decisive vote that re-elected George W. Bush.”

McClatchy, Sept. 19, 2020: ... 86795.html

“Trump receives his highest share of support from middle-aged men and women, an often overlooked demographic that is now playing a critical role in keeping the president’s electoral hopes alive…These voters — older members of Generation X and younger Baby Boomers… are often the only age group that give Trump the majority of their support in national and battleground state surveys.”

The New York Times, Oct. 7, 2020: ... delta.html

The only significant age group still supporting Trump is “a group of middle-aged people who include the youngest boomers and the oldest members of Generation X.”

New York Times, June 24, 2020: ... trump.html

“…if Mr. Trump stood for anything, it was for the very things Gen Jones most identifies with: jealousy, resentment, self-pity…I’m hoping that this tumultuous, traumatic spring is finally the time Generation Jones — and the rest of the country, too — embraces the idea of transformational change.”

Denver Post, December 5, 2004:

“Of the 15 "battleground states" polled by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. in the week before the general election, Bush carried a majority of the Generation Jones vote in all 15…In fact, if not for his significant margins among Generation Jones voters, Bush would not have been re-elected.”

Re: One Generation Might Decide the 2020 U.S. Election?

Posted: Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:59 am
by Hatshepsut
Thank you for the fascinating read. However, I think it was more than just generation. Sure, the impact is absolutely indisputable but I would add nations to the equations. It was definitely the minorities that had a huge impact on the elections.If not for Native American and Stacy Abrams efforts things could have gone wrong. It is still not great but I hope the US is heading into better direction. The country is terribly divided and the gap seems to be widening. It is sad and scary.