Is the Singularity exaggerated?

[Nathan G]

The way I see it, there are only two things we really know about the Singularity:

1) It will be the time that Artificial Intelligence is invented.

2) It will be the product of the coming generation, probably between 2028-2030.

From these two premises, this is what I believe WILL happen:
The Singularity will be known as the defining moment of western civilization's next High period, occurring soon after the Crisis of 2020 becomes history. A.I. will be invented by the most brilliant of Millennial scientists, aided by budding technicians of Generation Z. Afterwards, the diversification and distribution of AI will be organized primarily by Generation X. Thus, Artificial Intelligence will become the cornerstone to a new wave of technological development, leading the West into a "Golden Age" that lasts through the 2030's and into the 2040's. Fairly quickly, new household devices will develop (like fully automated homes and cars) that will typify the new "modern American home", and be considered products that everyone has to have.

And this is what I believe WILL NOT happen:
The Singularity will be known as humanity's greatest - and last - achievement. AI will soon lead to a new race of thinking machines that will outstretch humans in every capacity. Having all of a computer's speed and efficiency, along with the cognizance of a human, this new race will quickly develop not only new scientific, but also philosophical achievements that leave humans as pathetic by comparison. They will eventually phase out all biological life with more efficient machines that are functionally immortal, thus reshaping the Earth - and ultimately the Universe - into their image. <--- All of this WILL NOT happen

The reason that mainstream futurists fall into the second category is because they adhere to two fallacies:

1) They forget the purpose of technology. The purpose of technology is to improve the way of life for humans, reshaping the environment to be both safe, simple, and productive. No technology in history has ever done otherwise. Even weapons of mass destruction were originally invented for protection. So will there ever come a time when the purpose of humanity is to improve the way of life for machines? Obviously not, for that would be confusing the Creator for the creation. Even if it were possible, only a madman would actually carry it through, and only a race of madmen would ever relinquish their freedom. Clearly, someone who is mad cannot be smart enough to invent AI, thus making the scenario impossible.

2) They assume that time is linear, when Generational Theory proves that it is cyclic. Computers have only been around for 50 years, and the internet for only 20, thus making it quite an extrapolation to predict centuries of development. If time was ever so easily linear, then why didn't the predictions of H. G. Wells, George Orwell, and Isaac Asimov come true? Because they were living in the perspective of their generation, like we do with ours. A technological boom in the 2030's is actually not that special, as there was a similar event eighty years earlier in the 1950's (the Era of Mass Media) and eighty years before that in the 1870's (the Industrial Revolution); the world didn't end then, why should it end now? On a grander scale, science has gone through great Dark Ages in the past (1200 BC and 800 AD, with minor ones in between), so the assumption that technology should go up and up is just silly. Furthermore, Strauss and Howe themselves condemned the idea of linear time in The Fourth Turning.

Thus, we will have peace and production throughout the 2030's, with an awakening in the 2050's, a crisis in the 2090's, etc. A.I. will be invented, and humanity will move on as scheduled.

[quote="Star Trek, Episode 14, "Court Martial""] I speak of rights. A machine has none. A man must. My client has the right to face his accuser, and if you do not grant him that right, you have brought us down to the level of the machine. Indeed, you have elevated that machine above us. I ask that my motion be granted, and more than that, gentlemen. In the name of humanity, fading in the shadow of the machine, I demand it. I demand it![/quote]

Sincerely,
Nathan