Even applying generational dynamics theory, people rarely commit suicide by accident, if they are certain as to the cause and effect of taking an action that will result in their own deathTrevor wrote:They've repeatedly threatened to do just that, to blanket our skies with nuclear weapons. All it would take is one moment of panic, one miscalculation, and they're launched.
The United States military understands very well what nuclear weapons can, and can not, do.
The U.S. is not going to miscalculate and attack the Chinese homeland with nuclear weapons "because it seemed like a good idea at the time". The United States has no need to strike first or risk losing the U.S nuclear deterrent. The U.S. would only strike first if they were certain they could wipe out the entire Chinese nuclear capability.
China has too few strategic nuclear weapons to even consider succeeding in launching a surprise nuclear strike on the U.S. home land and thus eliminate the United States nuclear weapons.
China understands enough about nuclear weapons that they know attacking the U.S. homeland with multiple nuclear weapons would result in the complete and total destruction of the Chinese government, all Chinese cities and most of the Chinese people.
In my opinion it is extremely likely the Chinese will refrain from using even a single nuclear weapon against the United States homeland, regardless of how the war is going, provided the U.S. does not nuke the Chinese homeland first.
That does not mean I believe it is unlikely nuclear weapons will be used in a crisis war between the United States and China, I still believe there is a 50% chance China will use strategic nuclear weapons against U.S. military forces outside the United States.