United States - Preparing for a Crisis War

[Reality Check]

We're about to have another debt ceiling debate in a month or two, based on how the national debt is progressing. My expectation is that both sides will be screaming at each other for a couple of months, accusing the other of not caring about our future. Let's not forget the "won't someone please think of the children?" routine as well. About two days before the limit, they'll make some symbolic cuts and promises to cut future spending that will of course never happen. Pretty much what happened during the last debate.

We can't avoid a crisis war. The only thing we can do is prepare for it and get ready for war.

What do you believe "we" can do to prepare for a crisis war ?

[Trevor]

At this point, I don't expect us to do much of anything, but here's what I do. It's not perfect, but it's best to be as prepared as possible.

First, and I would say that this is the most important, I would increase our ballistic missile defense. This war will turn nuclear eventually. Maybe not until the final stages of it, but sooner or later, both sides will be firing everything they have. Build it up as much as possible.

Second, I'd restart the F-22 program until we had at least 500 of them. In the opening stages of the attack, our aircraft will be heavily outnumbered and those are the best ones we've got. In addition, accelerate both the F-35 program and the Next Generation Bomber program. We're going to need as many as we can get our hands on.

Third, continue building the Virginia Class Submarines, hopefully at a rate of at least three a year. Restarting the Seawolf Class wouldn't hurt, either.

Fourth, keep all ten of the Nimitz class carriers until at least four of the Ford Class ones are built. Building more construction sites to help accelerate the buildup would also be wise.

Fifth, do whatever possible to increase our manpower. It's one of our biggest weaknesses at the moment, which we didn't really realize until Iraq and Afghanistan.

I've got more in mind when it comes to building up our forces, but it would at least be a good start. The less ground China gains before we can fully transition to a war-time economy, the better.

[Reality Check]

This war will turn nuclear eventually. Maybe not until the final stages of it, but sooner or later, both sides will be firing everything they have. Build it up as much as possible

Just a quick clarification here. Are you predicting every type of weapon, including nuclear weapons, will be used; or are you predicting the United States will be firing all, or virtually all, it's nuclear missiles at China before the war is over?

[Trevor]

I would expect every last one of them to be used before the war is over on both sides. Nobody's going to be holding anything back and that includes nuclear weapons.

[John]

I would expect every last one of them to be used before the war is over on both sides. Nobody's going to be holding anything back and that includes nuclear weapons.

I agree.

[Reality Check]

I would expect every last one of them to be used before the war is over on both sides. Nobody's going to be holding anything back and that includes nuclear weapons.

I agree.

That is a truly depressing prediction.

Nuclear weapons are not as effective as those who say there use would destroy the world believe.

But at the current levels of strategic nuclear weapons in the United States, using all of them on China would turn China into North Korea, or worse, in terms of standard of living and economic power.

The United States would be missing some, if not all of it's major cities, depending on how effective the U.S. shields are at the time of the nuclear attack by China.

[Trevor]

We're still going to be using them and worry about the consequences later. I admit, I think we won't suffer as much as China, but even if we shoot down, say, 90% of their nuclear weapons, the 10% that get through will still end up killing millions of people.

[Reality Check]

I would predict a 50% chance the Chinese would use large strategic nuclear weapons for tactical purposes.

A reasonable scenario might be the Chinese attacking U.S. expeditionary forces in the Philippines, Vietnam, Korea, or Thailand as well as U.S. fleets at sea all over the world, with large strategic nuclear weapons.

The U.S., being the superior strategic nuclear power, would not retaliate against China proper, but instead demonstrate just what a massive strategic strike on China would do to China and communist leaders' control over their country.

A strategic strike on one of the large Sunni countries allied with China would be ideal. Destroying all Pakistani cities and all Pakistani military bases would likely demonstrate this quite nicely. Russia might do the same to Turkey just to make sure China knew they also had no problems using a few hundred of their thousands of nukes to bomb a large enemy country back into the pre-industrial age and killing, or maiming, the vast majority of the enemies population in the process.

Add to this retaliatory precision strikes with tactical nukes against Chinese military forces located outside China proper and a strong message would be sent.

The United States is a mature nuclear power. They would make sure China knew before the retaliatory strikes that China was safe from total destruction with strategic Nuclear weapons, if they refrained from attacking the U.S. proper.

I do not see China committing suicide to take revenge for Pakistan, or Turkey or any other third party country.

I do not see China, a country with hundreds of nuclear weapons attempting a strike against the homeland of a superior nuclear power with over 1,500 strategic nuclear weapons. Both Russia and the U.S. enjoy that kind of nuclear weapons superiority over China. This would be the one sure thing that would guarantee China would both lose the war and cease to exist as an industrial society. The Chinese may be overconfident, they may be arrogant, they may be emotional, but they are not stupid.

[vincecate]

I would expect every last one of them to be used before the war is over on both sides. Nobody's going to be holding anything back and that includes nuclear weapons.

I agree.

That is a truly depressing prediction.

One of the nice things about living in Anguilla is that it is very unlikely anyone would use a nuc on Anguilla (pop 13,000) and upwind of us for thousands of miles is just ocean, then the Sahara Desert. So my odds of getting hit by a nuc or any fallout from nucs is about as low as you can get I think.

[Trevor]

They've repeatedly threatened to do just that, to blanket our skies with nuclear weapons. All it would take is one moment of panic, one miscalculation, and they're launched.