United States - Preparing for a Crisis War

[Reality Check]

They've repeatedly threatened to do just that, to blanket our skies with nuclear weapons. All it would take is one moment of panic, one miscalculation, and they're launched.

Even applying generational dynamics theory, people rarely commit suicide by accident, if they are certain as to the cause and effect of taking an action that will result in their own death

The United States military understands very well what nuclear weapons can, and can not, do.

The U.S. is not going to miscalculate and attack the Chinese homeland with nuclear weapons "because it seemed like a good idea at the time". The United States has no need to strike first or risk losing the U.S nuclear deterrent. The U.S. would only strike first if they were certain they could wipe out the entire Chinese nuclear capability.

China has too few strategic nuclear weapons to even consider succeeding in launching a surprise nuclear strike on the U.S. home land and thus eliminate the United States nuclear weapons.

China understands enough about nuclear weapons that they know attacking the U.S. homeland with multiple nuclear weapons would result in the complete and total destruction of the Chinese government, all Chinese cities and most of the Chinese people.

In my opinion it is extremely likely the Chinese will refrain from using even a single nuclear weapon against the United States homeland, regardless of how the war is going, provided the U.S. does not nuke the Chinese homeland first.

That does not mean I believe it is unlikely nuclear weapons will be used in a crisis war between the United States and China, I still believe there is a 50% chance China will use strategic nuclear weapons against U.S. military forces outside the United States.

[Reality Check]

One of the nice things about living in Anguilla is that it is very unlikely anyone would use a nuc on Anguilla (pop 13,000) and upwind of us for thousands of miles is just ocean, then the Sahara Desert. So my odds of getting hit by a nuc or any fallout from nucs is about as low as you can get I think.

I was wondering about the wind patterns, when I looked at a map a while back it appeared Anguilla was closer to Cuba and the United States than I had imagined, but that does not really inform about wind patterns, and my recollection or understanding of the map could be in error.

[Trevor]

I would fully expect them to use them on our soil, especially in the last stages of the war. Many will be used on tactical targets, yes, but our cities will be far from safe. We came close to nuclear war with the Russians numerous times and that was when both of us were in a non-crisis era. In a crisis war, anything goes.

[Higgenbotham]

Lots of good points I'm reading here.

I can only add this with regard to the willingness and capabilities of our leadership to employ weapons of mass destruction. To this point, the US leadership has shown a tremendous eagerness to develop and employ financial weapons of mass destruction to the maximum possible extent. Every move that is made by the US leadership is a move toward the maximum eventual destruction of the world financial system. If given a more destructive option, A, or a less destructive option, B, they have invariably chosen the more destructive option. And as we know, the generational financial crisis precedes the generational war crisis.

So it would be my expectation that the US leadership will employ nuclear weapons of mass destruction in a similar manner to financial weapons of mass destruction, in a completely illogical manner and in a manner as to cause the maximum possible damage.

[vincecate]

One of the nice things about living in Anguilla is that it is very unlikely anyone would use a nuc on Anguilla (pop 13,000) and upwind of us for thousands of miles is just ocean, then the Sahara Desert. So my odds of getting hit by a nuc or any fallout from nucs is about as low as you can get I think.

I was wondering about the wind patterns, when I looked at a map a while back it appeared Anguilla was closer to Cuba and the United States than I had imagined, but that does not really inform about wind patterns, and my recollection or understanding of the map could be in error.

Looks like about 500 miles upwind from Cuba and 1000 from Florida. The wind is almost always coming from the East here. These are "the trade winds".

This google map is centered on Anguilla. To the West you can see Cuba and Florida. To the East is ocean.
https://maps.google.com/?ll=18.229351,- ... 98&t=h&z=5

The dome in the lower center of this shot is my house:
https://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&t=h&ll ... 13797&z=16

[Reality Check]

Lots of good points I'm reading here.

I can only add this with regard to the willingness and capabilities of our leadership to employ weapons of mass destruction. To this point, the US leadership has shown a tremendous eagerness to develop and employ financial weapons of mass destruction to the maximum possible extent. Every move that is made by the US leadership is a move toward the maximum eventual destruction of the world financial system. If given a more destructive option, A, or a less destructive option, B, they have invariably chosen the more destructive option. And as we know, the generational financial crisis precedes the generational war crisis.

So it would be my expectation that the US leadership will employ nuclear weapons of mass detruction in a similar manner to financial weapons of mass destruction, in a completely illogical manner and in a manner as to cause the maximum possible damage.

I agree with everything you say, except I would point out one huge difference between nuclear weapons strategy and financial strategy.

Bank executives are the last to pay the price in a financial strategy that steals from investors. Even if they destroy their own country in the process they have a very good chance to get away with both their lives and millions or even billions in financial rewards.

Most strategies for employing nuclear weapons in a strategic mode involve using them on the elite members of your enemies society first. New York, Washington DC, Chicago, Los Angeles and all the other large cities where the rich and powerful live would be destroyed by the Chinese immediately under one of these strategies. In a similar fashion the places where the elite members of the Chinese Armed Forces and the elite members of the Chinese Communist party live, would be targeted first by U.S. nuclear war planers.

Prosecutors in your own country who you can bribe and control through politicians you bought, are not the ones who control your fate, as a member of the elite, rich and powerful. Instead, if you are playing the strategic thermal nuclear weapons game, it is someone in an enemy country who has your elite balls in their nuclear fist. The only thing that keeps them from squeezing with crushing force is a similar threat to them and their families.

The powerful have the most to lose by using thermal nuclear weapons for strategic warfare, which makes thermal nuclear war different than any other form of warfare. It also makes such strategic warfare the least likely to be approved by the elite.

To quote a SAC saying: "Yea tho I walk through the valley of death, I shall fear no evil. Because I am the baddest M.F. in the valley."

[Trevor]

I still expect them to use everything they have before the end of the year. If they're desperate enough, the way Japan and Germany were in 1944-1945, they'll do it. Same for us if we end up on the losing end of this.

[Trevor]

And if I were them, I'd take the Philippines first. Geographically, it'd be easy for them to defend from us, well within reach of their aircraft where they could swamp us with overwhelming numbers of them. Not only that, but it goes a long way towards denying us access to the Pacific.

[Reality Check]

I still expect them to use everything they have before the end of the year.

Again, what exactly do you expect them to use "everything of". Which year are you talking about. And who exactly is them?

[Reality Check]

If they're desperate enough, the way Japan and Germany were in 1944-1945, they'll do it. Same for us if we end up on the losing end of this.

Hitler might have, he was indeed willing to have all his people die to gain himself a few more days.

Iran is also a country that I would return to the stone age, before I would allow them to have nuclear weapons.

Japan, however, did surrender in World War II rather than make the allies pay a terrible price for invasion.

That was also a crisis war for Japan and they could have reasonably expected their extinction as a country should they allow the barbarians in. Certainly if the Japanese had been the victor, the loser would have ceased to exist. Yet the Japanese surrendered.

The destruction the Chinese will face if they start a strategic thermal nuclear war, will be several levels of magnitude greater than anything Japan would have feared after seeing the effect of a small atomic bomb.

The Chinese know this.