Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

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Reality Check
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Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Reality Check »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... trike.html
An armada of US and British ( and 23 other countries ) naval power is massing in the Persian Gulf in the belief that Israel is considering a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s covert nuclear weapons programme.

In preparation for any pre-emptive or retaliatory action by Iran, warships from more than 25 countries, including the United States, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will today begin an annual 12-day exercise.
10:00PM BST 15 Sep 2012

The war games are the largest ever undertaken in the region.

They will practise tactics in how to breach an Iranian blockade of the strait and the force will also undertake counter-mining drills.

The multi-national naval force in the Gulf includes three US Nimitz class carrier groups, each of which has more aircraft than the entire complement of the Iranian air force.

The carriers are supported by at least 12 battleships, including ballistic missile cruisers, frigates, destroyers and assault ships carrying thousand of US Marines and special forces.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... trike.html

Trevor
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Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Trevor »

Even though very few know anything about generational dynamics, even the idiots in Washington know that if Israel strikes Iran, that will likely lead to a major war throughout the region. When that happens, we'll be unable to stay out of it for very long.

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Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Reality Check »

Trevor wrote:Even though very few know anything about generational dynamics, even the idiots in Washington know that if Israel strikes Iran, that will likely lead to a major war throughout the region. When that happens, we'll be unable to stay out of it for very long.
Unless the Russians attack Turkey I can not see a scenario where a major war results.

Without nuclear weapons Iran is just an isolated regional power with limited conventional military power and without a blue water navy.

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab States, Iran's Sunni Muslim Neighbors who Iran is most likely to attack, also have limited conventional military power, and,

The United States, Western Europe and Japan will help defend Iran's Sunni Muslim neighbors from an Iranian attack against them, if Iran should choose to attack, and,

Iran is no conventional military match for the United States alone, when Western Europe and Japan are added in the mix it would not even be a fair fight.

Iran will suffer a humiliating defeat if Iran elects to close the Water Way into, and out of, the Persian Gulf.

Israel, with U.S. resupply can defeat Israel's neighbors if Israel is attacked.

Civilians, perhaps by the thousands, will die in Israel. But beyond that I am not sure how a major war will erupt, unless,

Russia elects to start a war with Turkey, Russia's major trading partner.

I do not see this as likely, but it is possible.

Trevor
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Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Trevor »

If it came to war between us and Iran, they wouldn't last very long, or have their population very willing to fight.

What I was referring to was supporting groups like Hezbollah, or the Palestinians, which would be far more likely to spark a major war than an attack on Iran alone. If the Palestinians think that they can win an all-out war, or decide that they have nothing to lose, that will quickly drag all their neighbors in.

I've been watching Israel and I'm seeing the anxiety and panic increase on an almost daily basis. Iran's getting close to a nuclear weapon, the Palestinians are getting more combative, and it seems like Egypt is becoming another enemy. That kind of fear can easily turn into a disaster.

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Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Reality Check »

Trevor wrote:If it came to war between us and Iran, they wouldn't last very long, or have their population very willing to fight.

What I was referring to was supporting groups like Hezbollah, or the Palestinians, which would be far more likely to spark a major war than an attack on Iran alone. If the Palestinians think that they can win an all-out war, or decide that they have nothing to lose, that will quickly drag all their neighbors in.

I've been watching Israel and I'm seeing the anxiety and panic increase on an almost daily basis. Iran's getting close to a nuclear weapon, the Palestinians are getting more combative, and it seems like Egypt is becoming another enemy. That kind of fear can easily turn into a disaster.
If Hezbollah, Hamas and the Palestinians ( with or without the support of Egypt, Syria and Jordan ) could win a war against Israel they would have long ago.

The Demographic trends are not going in Israel's direction, but a war between Israel and it's immediate neighbors right now would not be what I would call a major war.

Israel is a western country, their civilians do not want to die in conventional rocket attacks from Lebanon. Sure they are scared.

The reason Israel would start a war right now, is because the Israelis would choose to fight before Iran has the ability to build nuclear weapons.

Israel already has nuclear weapons.

Trevor
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Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Trevor »

Many crisis wars consist of attacks that have little hope of success. It's how we became a country; how could we possibly have been crazy enough to fight the strongest empire in the world? Yet that's exactly what we did.

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Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Reality Check »

Your first claim was about a "major war":
Trevor wrote:Even though very few know anything about generational dynamics, even the idiots in Washington know that if Israel strikes Iran, that will likely lead to a major war throughout the region. When that happens, we'll be unable to stay out of it for very long.
Now you have dropped your claim of "major war" and are talking about a "crisis war"":
Trevor wrote:Many crisis wars consist of attacks that have little hope of success. It's how we became a country; how could we possibly have been crazy enough to fight the strongest empire in the world? Yet that's exactly what we did.
All crisis wars are NOT major wars; and all major wars are NOT crisis wars;

Crisis wars are often defined only from the perspective of one party.

For example World War II was NOT, by John's interpretation, a crisis war for The Soviet Union, but it was a major war.
World War I and the Russian Revolution was a crisis war for The Soviet Union and it also was a major war.

A 1500s, 1600s, 1700s or 1800s world Empire such as Great Britain or Spain or France invading and absorbing a tiny Island nation state into the empire would not be a major war by anyone's definition.

But that same war would be a crisis war for the nation state that never again existed on the face of the earth. In the case of Spain, or France, in the New World both the culture and and the gene pool of the small island nation state might also cease to exist. Certainly a crisis war for those people. But not a major war by anyone's standard.
Last edited by Reality Check on Mon Sep 17, 2012 12:23 pm, edited 4 times in total.

Reality Check
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Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Reality Check »

The most likely result of a conflict between Iran and Israel over Iran's development of Nuclear weapons would be:

1. A relatively weaker Iran.

2. Relatively stronger Sunni Muslim states.

3. Syria becoming either a unified Sunni Muslim state or a collection of mini-states organized along ethnic and religious lines like the former Yugoslavia, became Croatia, Serbia, Kosovo plus the even smaller countries ( and autonomous regions ) that were formerly part of Yugoslavia.

4. The continued relative decline of Israel relative to the Sunni Muslim states that surround Israel for demographic, economic and geographic reasons.

The relative rise in power of the Sunni Muslim states would play into John's prediction of the Sunni Muslim states siding with China in a War between China and the United States.

The weakening of Iran would also play into the prediction of Iran aligning itself with Russia and the United States in a conflict between Sunni Muslim states ( allied with China ) against the United States. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

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Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Reality Check »

One must remember that one definition of a crisis war is that the very existence of the country for which it is a crisis war must be at stake.

One could argue that an attack by Israel on Iran that destroyed Iran's ability to Attack Israel with nuclear weapons, even if it was a very, very minor war, would still be a crisis war for Israel.

If Israel believed it's very existence was at stake, and if indeed Iran intended to use nuclear weapons on Israel once it had them, then it would indeed be a crisis war.

Even if Iran did not retaliate to such an attack it could still be a crisis war for Israel.

Unlike a nuclear attack on the United States by China, which, as John has pointed out, would not be as destructive as anti-Nuke fanatics portray, for the simple fact that the United States is geographically vast and the destructive power of nuclear weapons is much more limited than anti-Nuke fanatics portray.

In the geographically tiny country of Israel a few well placed nuclear strikes on Israel surrounded, by mortal enemies, both within and without it's borders, a nuclear war waged against Israel could be a major factor in the Country of Israel ceasing to exist.

Trevor
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Re: Naval Forces Massing - Largest in History for Region

Post by Trevor »

What I meant was a crisis war, at least for most of the countries in the region, like Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia. I'm not sure what timeline Yemen's on, but they'd likely be dragged into it as well.

I'm not too sure how much an Israeli strike would harm Iran. At most, it would slow down their nuclear program and I think the world has pretty much resigned itself to a nuclear Iran.

And if that happened, a substantial number of Iranians would blame it on their own government. Remember how many people said that we "deserved" the September 11th attacks in the days after the destruction, including people in this country. Nevertheless, I think they would retaliate, at least in an indirect fashion.

Syria's a case where I think the older generation is going to win. They've lasted as long as they have through receiving weapons and the influx of foreign fighters in Aleppo, but I don't see that state of events lasting forever.

As always, the key is the Palestinians. Sooner or later, they're going to attack. All the international attention and focus on peace has slowed it down to some degree, but nothing is going to keep it bottled up forever. I can't give an exact date, but I would expect it shortly after the financial collapse.

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