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Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic
Posted: Thu Mar 31, 2022 1:13 pm
by Tom Mazanec
I like a vast range of futures. Time To Come is like a river delta, with countless distributaries. Thus, if I have a choice between two science fiction books, one set in Star Trek or Star Wars or some other franchise I am well familiar with, and another set in a universe I am completely ignorant of, I will pick the new material. Now, if I really fall in love with a universe (one of my Asperger's obsessions) then I will read everything I can find on it. Since last summer I have been in this condition over Out-Of-Placers, a web comic with a lot of fanfic adaptations. Viva la yinglets!
Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic
Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2022 6:25 am
by Guest
Peak Inflation Is Wishful Thinking - Ep 799
33,075 viewsApr 13, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-ffYtr4YFU
Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic
Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:02 am
by Tom Mazanec
Central Bankers Are Helpless to Stop Inflation and Then Hyperinflation.
2,007 viewsApr 14, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-hgM6uMp5w
btw, sorry about being "guest" on previous post.
Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic
Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2022 10:19 am
by Cool Breeze
Do you think they'll sacrifice the market, Tom? I tend to think so now. I wonder what Greg M has to say about it.
Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic
Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:49 am
by Tom Mazanec
Cool Breeze wrote: ↑Fri Apr 15, 2022 10:19 am
Do you think they'll sacrifice the market, Tom? I tend to think so now. I wonder what Greg M has to say about it.
So far the quarter percent rise has been telegraphed so much that the wires have melted. The market was prepared for that, and since the real inflation rate is probably pushing twenty percent that is how far they would have to raise it. At a quarter of a percent eight times a year that will take a decade. By then inflation will be triple digit, if not dectuple digit.
Now, unlike John, I am not positive about the future. They may do an about-face. Especially with inflation like this.
But they pretty much have a choice between hyperinflation and hyperdepression.
BTW, Greg M is pretty good. But he needs better makeup - he looks like a cross between a zombie and a raccoon.
Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic
Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2022 9:36 am
by Cool Breeze
Tom Mazanec wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:49 am
Cool Breeze wrote: ↑Fri Apr 15, 2022 10:19 am
Do you think they'll sacrifice the market, Tom? I tend to think so now. I wonder what Greg M has to say about it.
So far the quarter percent rise has been telegraphed so much that the wires have melted. The market was prepared for that, and since the real inflation rate is probably pushing twenty percent that is how far they would have to raise it. At a quarter of a percent eight times a year that will take a decade. By then inflation will be triple digit, if not dectuple digit.
Now, unlike John, I am not positive about the future. They may do an about-face. Especially with inflation like this.
But they pretty much have a choice between hyperinflation and hyperdepression.
BTW, Greg M is pretty good. But he needs better makeup - he looks like a cross between a zombie and a raccoon.
That was a good post, thanks for the added humor too. Just guess though - are they going to choose to let inflation run hot or tighten and sink the markets? Or are you saying they'll do the slow increase of small rate hikes, which will keep inflation rolling into several years ad cause a market selloff anyway (a sort of combo that is a double whammy since the gov't actually needs to devalue due to all the entitlements they can't possibly ever pay)?
Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic
Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2022 7:26 pm
by Tom Mazanec
My guess is that they will continue slowly raising interest rates until the market crashes, then reverse course.
But I may be wrong.
Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic
Posted: Sun Apr 17, 2022 8:10 am
by Tom Mazanec
Also, Cool Breeze, remember interest on the national debt was a major budget item with rates at 0.25%. Think what it will be with rates at 25%.
Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic
Posted: Sun Apr 17, 2022 9:46 am
by Cool Breeze
Tom Mazanec wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 7:26 pm
My guess is that they will continue slowly raising interest rates until the market crashes, then reverse course.
But I may be wrong.
I suspect you may be right. Weird political implications and worry ahead for dead man and the deep state. That's why my prediction was Republican domination and then the world pushes itself to a large scale confrontation (Russia invading Ukraine is just stage 1). I hope I'm wrong.
Also, Cool Breeze, remember interest on the national debt was a major budget item with rates at 0.25%. Think what it will be with rates at 25%.
Yes, Luke Gromen talks about this frequently and how we should position ourselves (gold, btc, equities).
Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic
Posted: Sun Apr 17, 2022 10:21 am
by Tom Mazanec
To be honest, probably only Jerome Powell knows for sure.
And maybe not even him.