Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

aeden wrote:
Fri Jun 02, 2023 10:41 am
Your portfolio RiskGrade <1
Fire for effect H
They're pumping the secondary stocks hard, so maybe this is the last phase. When the S&P made its secondary top in May 08 they pumped the Russell all the way to June 08, then a double top on the Russell in August 08.

The run in the S&P from the March 08 Bear Stearns low to the secondary top was 44 TD, we are at 57 TD from the SVB low.

One of the 8 I follow has been calling for a June 2 high for several weeks. He has a Lindsay low low high from December to March to June 2 and a few other things.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by aeden »

My view was end June to July. Really it now depends on the bond auctions for me.
A few I seen here a thing the fomo fud will get over their skis to early was garnered.
I would consider as before the H.8 and H.4.1 to gauge thought but not direction as the
Consumer picks which tone to carry for now. Going into August is going to be a data driven
is what I am drilling down to. Cory at fx evo had some good points elaborated from deep dive
maps on what we also discussed. We will wait to protect the year advances to walk down the Hill
if needed and pick up lesser insane if that can be interpreted other than here.
I will forward the Aussy later as we sweep indices.
I would let it burn sideways into August so these bail tards cook in the Sun alone for a long time.
Also, these alleged fin firms are so wrapped up with CEI, DEI ESG it did make it easier to shit can them.
The shade shift from banks/ broker was seamless for them which was all this was about anyways even
before Dodd Frank pantamines.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

2023 followed by 2008. These have been compared a lot but now there is a pattern match in my opinion.

Image

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

aeden wrote:
Fri Jun 02, 2023 3:09 pm
My view was end June to July.
The changes I made today were to add 17% to my short position and to stop making any trades from the long side on individual stocks until the market settles on a direction. At the May 2008 high, the S&P pierced the upper Bollinger Band then reversed intraday. Today the S&P traded above the Bollinger Band most of the day but did not reverse. I've also been considering the possibility of an early July high and am ready for that. At today's close, my account is down on the year for the first time this year, down 0.4% on the year.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

Potential Panic Precursor (PPP).

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

Tom Mazanec wrote:
Sat Jun 03, 2023 9:16 am
Possible outcomes of war in the Ukraine
https://blog.reaction.la/war/possible-o ... e-ukraine/
This is from the comments section of the link Tom posted on the News thread. Many of the topics discussed in this thread are discussed in these comments. I'll probably start following this blog.
jim says:
2023-06-02 at 09:46
It is not difficult to harden infrastructure against emp. Just need to connect all big electrically conducting things with lightning arrestors, at least some of those big electrically conducting things being grounds that actually connect to the ground. If you have a metal roof connected to ground, or a conducting web in the roof, emp just cannot get at you.
Big Brutha says:
2023-06-02 at 11:21
Sure. The problem is most things aren’t hardened and in any near term escalation they are unlikely to be soon enough to matter.

There are, of course, things that are hardened but not enough of them to avoid the kind of serious problems incident to an EMP.

If you can’t pump water up a high rise in NYC because there’s no electrical power station or sufficient transmission capacity left to keep it running you have a problem.

If you can’t move sewage out or treat waste water you have a problem.

If hospitals can’t get fuel for generators after a few days you have a problem. And the whole issue set cascades until fixing individual problems may have to wait for order to be restored in specific locations.

If you cannot get additional fuel because the pumps cannot get it out of tanks in the ground that is also a problem.

Certainly you can come up with manual solutions and alternatives but again, it takes time and the problems in a given location might make implementing solutions in the near term tough.

For folks living out in the middle of nowhere you could hunker down if you were prepared and wait a lot of the chaos out.

Interruption of comms, fuel, food delivery, water pumping, etc. could hollow out more urban areas in a couple of weeks time as people determined that they would need to go looking for needed supplies.

I would expect a lot of opportunistic crime and score settling which would make things more chaotic.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Sun May 07, 2023 3:00 pm
Higgenbotham wrote:
Sat May 06, 2023 9:00 pm
The 6 excerpts from Marc Widdowson's book The Phoenix Principle and the Coming Dark Age, in the order posted, discuss these topics:

Characteristics of Economic Descent
World Economic Order and Whether the Dark Age will be Global
Neo-Barbarian Invaders will Destroy the West
Fragmented Spirituality of the Descent will Leave People Wanting
Giant Firms will Fail and there will be an Informal Economy
When the Descent Culminates in Collapse, Every Remaining Nuclear Warhead may be Exploded
Before discussing these excerpts individually, the crux of the matter in my opinion is how severe the financial crisis will be and whether the financial crisis by itself will either cause governments to fail or a large number of deaths. Historically speaking, that's not the case. Let's summarize what is different this time, looking at what may be most important immediately after the worldwide financial system seizes up:

1. Critical components are only manufactured in a small number of often vulnerable locations in the world.
2. Manufacturing of components requires as many as thousands of inputs sourced from all over the world.
3. Farms are typically thousands of acres and use hard to repair equipment that requires high tech electronic components.
4. Populations are dependent on high tech water and wastewater treatment.
5. Big box and large virtual stores dominate retail.
6. Populations are higher and more concentrated in urban areas.
7. Populations are dependent on transfer payments.

We've had 2 minor test runs - the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 covid panic. Both were partial financial seizures.
Higgenbotham wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:49 pm
My more specific predictions would be:
  • There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. Supply chains will break, resulting in unavailability of critical raw materials and components. Global trade will begin to shut down. As it begins to become apparent that the supply chain linkages are permanently broken, the global interlinked financial markets will shut down and cease to exist. This will all happen very quickly. It will not take years from the initial panic.
  • The focus of governments will turn to controlling their panicked and hungry populations. Due to lack of availability of imported goods and adequate storage "sufficient to reconstitute" a system consistent with nation state government, this will prove to be too little too late and most government will devolve to the local level as populations lose faith in their national governments and the national governments lose the resources and ability to control their populations.
  • There will be no large scale nuclear war. Instead, the population will be culled through starvation, local strife (including settling of long-standing scores) and disease. Wave after wave of pandemics will sweep the world.
  • Similar to national economies and governments, centralized utilities will fail or become so decrepit as to be unsafe and unusable. All centralized utilities including the power grid will shut down permanently.
  • The initial worldwide kill rate during the first couple decades following the financial panic will exceed 90%. The global population will be in the range of a few tens of millions when the bottom is hit in two or three centuries. Similar to the last dark age, the world's largest cities will have a population on the order of 25,000 and a large town will be 1,000.
  • Life during the coming dark age will be similar to the last dark age but worse due to environmental damage and pollution.
Updating the piece of the discussion regarding semiconductors and the changes that have occurred since 2018

Semiconductors are the most critical "critical component" that the US has been relying on vulnerable parts of the supply chain for. Getting that fixed was a problem because the cost structure in the US was too high for the foreign semiconductor manufacturers to consider moving any plants onto US soil. In 2021 or so work was done to give these foreign semiconductor manufacturers enough incentives to build some facilities in the US at huge cost. Of course, these incentives will rob from Peter to pay Paul so to speak, resulting in more debt and an even higher cost structure in the US for everybody else. These facilities are expected to become operational in 2024.

Conclusion: Assuming these facilities become operational in 2024 and there are no serious disruptions to the supply chain before 2024, the very worst impacts of the coming financial crisis forecast by me in 2018 can be avoided.

In my view, this makes forecasting muddier because we don't know how China will respond prior to these facilities becoming operational and, if they do become operational, whether that will mitigate the impacts of the coming financial crisis enough to prevent nation state governments from collapsing.

I now want to switch to another piece of this post by Warren Dew because it ties in with the above comments; therefore, only the underlined part has been changed.
Higgenbotham wrote:
Fri Jun 02, 2023 12:31 pm
This is all good stuff but I want to focus in on the underlined portion, which makes the point discussed in another thread recently. The author states his IQ is 156-163 and based on reading this post and scanning through his other posts, that is likely accurate in my opinion. Like I've stated, it seems to be only in the range of IQ at 150+ that people can consistently understand and apply these concepts. People in power at the government or even the corporate level cannot by definition because they have to be in the IQ range to be able to effectively communicate with and lead their subordinates.
Warren Dew
MIT graduate; IQ only 156-163 but know 3 people with IQ 170+
Author has 6.3K answers and 1.9M answer views 5y

There are several reasons why governments aren’t just paying highly intelligent people to solve the world’s problems.

First, governments are run by people who don’t generally care much about solving the world’s problems. What they usually care about is staying in power, and increasing that power. Any solving of the world’s problems is at best secondary, and if staying in power means making the world’s problems worse, they’ll do that too.

Second, cooperation between governmental leaders and the very high intelligence advisors might not be all that easy. In democratic governments, most elected leaders are probably within the 30 IQ point Hollingworth communication range of the average voters, so likely not much higher than 130 IQ at best. People above 160 IQ will be outside the Hollingworth range of the leaders, so it won’t be easy to communicate their recommendations to the leaders to implement. And even where the communication problems are solved, there may be differences in goals between leaders and experts. When government leaders hire someone really smart like Edward Snowden to help them spy on their citizens, and Snowden ends up sabotaging those efforts because he sympathizes with the citizens more than with the government, government leaders may think twice before again hiring people smarter than they are.

Third, top down techniques are economically inefficient: a small number of IQ 150+ people are not as “smart” as hundreds of millions of average individuals all making their own optimizations. That’s why free market systems are so much more productive than centrally planned economies. At best the think tank folks will need to figure out how to work with the free market effectively, which likely means giving the free market a lot of free rein. Indeed, there are already private think tanks that provide advice like that in the US, and the government sometimes wisely takes that advice.

But perhaps you’re not asking about a theoretical group of IQ 150+ people; perhaps you’re specifically asking about IQ 150+ people on Quora. In that case, the answer is that they provide the answers for free already, so why pay them?
https://www.quora.com/If-we-have-a-grou ... s-problems
It seems to me that the US elite realized at some point since the covid outbreak that getting semiconductor plants moved onto US soil will help them stay in power (and without them they might not). Of course, they will say, "We did it all for you."
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Guest in MS

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Guest in MS »

The black and Latino populations will run wild in WW3 or a collapse. They have no agency. They survive of of the backs of the taxpayer and government agencies. Add to that that the average POC can't think beyond the tip of their ...necktie, and you can easily see what will happen.

Leave the cities if you can. If you can't, you will need a bug out spot. An old camper trailer on half an acre will do. If you can't afford that, pray.

Guest

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Guest »

Guest in MS wrote:
Sun Jun 04, 2023 12:18 am
The black and Latino populations will run wild in WW3 or a collapse. They have no agency. They survive of of the backs of the taxpayer and government agencies. Add to that that the average POC can't think beyond the tip of their ...necktie, and you can easily see what will happen.

Leave the cities if you can. If you can't, you will need a bug out spot. An old camper trailer on half an acre will do. If you can't afford that, pray.
I remember how bad it got in the summer of 2020 with BLM. In many American cities, the riots and looting have never stopped. I know people, long time friends, who have walked away from their hometowns. They sold their houses at a loss or abandoned them.

I know an upper-middle class guy who lost his business in the riots and insurance never compensating him (not really). He sold his house, took the money, bought a camper (a trailer), and lives on his brother's 15 acres in western Idaho. His teenage daughter is at a university in France, and his ex-wife is now remarried and living somewhere. He does custom interior work in new builds. He isn't happier. He is angry about the breakdown of law and order, but grateful to have escaped to the deep country. He misses his former life: the nice house, the Audi A5, and a once happy family. He says he is stockpiling ammo for the collapse. He wants revenge.

I know he is not alone.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Post by aeden »

This island gap effect is what we discussed as risk is not probability.
The TGA - treasury general accounting - as tech insiders sell into next week flows will decide not us.
The general view of burn loot murder is not unwarrated for those over the >97 discussions.
As we remember History here those below two stripes never wanted the third stripe since they had
to salute superior orders fools. For those lacking any thought maps Häyhä once hit a target 16 times from 150 metres
away in just one minute. For those still lacking any thought map Officers first just like our did a long long ago in the Field
which they the adversary said was uncivil. Then you should of stayed Hearth and Home.
I suggest you know your Sherif and serve in a capacity for Him for self defense which will be the offense once the
actual theator actors are sorted out. God, Family, Unit, and Hell awaits those who seek harm.

He replied, "I did what I was told to do, as well as I could.
There would be no Finland unless everyone else had done the same.

Also these fools are as dumb as ours. https://rmx.news/migrant-crisis/migrant ... ter-wi-fi/
Last edited by aeden on Sun Jun 04, 2023 11:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests