Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

Also, I'm reading BS about how this is a liquidity crisis and not a solvency crisis. What would it be if the banks were paying competitive rates on their deposits and mark their treasury and other holdings to market after the Fed is done raising rates for the last time? They have no idea (and neither do I). Is the US government solvent?
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

expat

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by expat »

Americans are idiots. Even American millionaires who are leaving the country.
I think the people who escape are smart enough to recognize what has happened to the country. Europe is not heaven, but some places have not such as low as the US.

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

This is still my all time favorite quote from this forum.
mannfm11 wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2009 3:00 am
In any case, his philosophy [Ben Bernanke's] is that if something is bankrupt, you might as well see how bankrupt you can get it before it collapses.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

John
Posts: 11478
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by John »

Monday, March 13, 2023

Is the SVB / Signature backstop a
bailout?

The view this morning seems to be that
this time it's different. In 2008, it
was the banks that were bailed out.
This time it's the depositors who are
being bailed out.

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:
Mon Mar 13, 2023 8:37 am
Monday, March 13, 2023

Is the SVB / Signature backstop a
bailout?

The view this morning seems to be that
this time it's different. In 2008, it
was the banks that were bailed out.
This time it's the depositors who are
being bailed out.
It sounds like they are comparing it to the Fall of 2008 rather than the Spring of 2008 when it was just Bear Stearns.

From Wikipedia,
In March 2008, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provided an emergency loan [to Bear Stearns] to try to avert a sudden collapse of the company. The company could not be saved, however, and was sold to JPMorgan Chase for $10 per share,[2] a price far below its pre-crisis 52-week high of $133.20 per share, but not as low as the $2 per share originally agreed upon.[3]

The collapse of the company was a prelude to the meltdown of the investment banking industry in the United States and elsewhere that culminated in September 2008, and the subsequent global financial crisis of 2008–2009. In January 2010, JPMorgan ceased using the Bear Stearns name.[4]
The difference is a buyer was found for Bear Stearns but not for SVB.

The view you are quoting is accurate in and of itself (when just confining the discussion to SVB).

In the article I quoted yesterday there was discussion about setting up a credit facility for banks other than the ones who have been put into receivership. Depending on the specific terms, which were not disclosed, that could amount to a backdoor bailout.

In the Fall of 2008, the first bailout (TARP) was around $600 billion and if they bail out the uninsured depositors in SVB that will amount to about $160 billion, I'm guessing.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:23 pm
Also, I'm reading BS about how this is a liquidity crisis and not a solvency crisis. What would it be if the banks were paying competitive rates on their deposits and mark their treasury and other holdings to market after the Fed is done raising rates for the last time? They have no idea (and neither do I). Is the US government solvent?
https://youtu.be/vU1g7ZUQkWI?t=391

According to Chris Whalen, the moves in the markets rendered SVB insolvent. He goes on to say this is like the 1930s and the Fed made a fundamental mistake.
Higgenbotham wrote:
Sun Apr 17, 2022 1:54 pm
10 year treasury rate going exponential. Nobody's worried...

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... se&state=9
He goes further to say the Fed will open the discount window and not look at the coupon on the collateral they take in.
Higgenbotham wrote:
Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:06 pm
They won't tell the details but this sounds to me like a bailout. I suspect what they are going to do is mark the collateral to the purchase price rather than to market, then plan to reduce interest rates if there is too much pressure on the banking system going forward. That's why the loan period will be for a year.
I'm taking anything said by anybody with big grains of salt, whether I agree with them or not.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

I did a lottery economy update in the Financial Topics Friday but haven't done one in the Dark Age Hovel for awhile.
Higgenbotham wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:55 am
I think it's likely the stock market topped on Thursday as it pushed close to 4200, then fell back.

As the S&P has risen, despite being short, I've been able to keep my equity steady to slightly higher. However, if it pushes past 4200, I will start taking drawdowns because I will be holding short and increasing my position. Also, if the market continues dropping, I will hold.

Image
After the market top of February 2, I took some gains on short positions and since the failure of SVB have been playing what I've called nickel slots. It's taking advantage of huge volatility with small amounts of cash. The volatility is in the bank stocks, not so much in the general market. Today, I continued that, switching over from FRC to ZION as word of the contagion spread and engulfed other stocks.

From a cyclical standpoint, there are a few things I'm looking at, but what had my attention Friday and today was the March 12, 2003 low on the 20 year (double decennial) cycle. I don't think that will put in a significant long lasting bottom like it did in 2003 but I felt it was prudent to stand aside, especially given the news. I would like to re-establish shorts on any rally.

I took a draw out of my account in early January and now have recovered a little over half of that.

Results of nickel slots today and account value since my last update:

Image

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by aeden »

The retards in the states and eu will and are being left behind.
Unlimited coal imports and coal burning plants in 2022 as two per week online in just one asian zone.
The abject stupidity of these uniparty demsheviks is stunning to watch.
Mexico and China told the Senate to pound sand on drugs and borders.
Go ahead see what they do when you just show up. Game set match fools.
Uniparty had blown past stupid longer than the attention span they do not even pretend to have.
Best bribed swamp idiots ever assembled between the main facts of Keynes and Hayek other than hyperinflation
to liquidate debt and people that sell weed and wine actually producing nothing consumers want or can afford now.
They cannot even keep it running blaming everyone else. You got your sticky wages and outsourcing wages.
Active measures were and continue to be real. Shoot someone, lottery money ticket legal circus only now.
Price cuts as the steering wheels fall off the damned juice boxes. Priceless.

Mexico has 28 murders per 100K, according to World Bank stats. Chicago during 2021-22 had 29.5 murders per 100K. And Chicago's not even in the top 10 of US cities.
Taking into account sky high prices and the insane pricks of politics of US cities, I'm surprised more sane Americans aren't getting the hell out of here.

The anti mex sentiment is money is leaving bish for lower inputs also. Uniparty here is as warned the rope burn phase. Feet meet voters
unless words out you got the bytecorn then its hammer meets toes.
Bish is the failed state. Everything was fine as long as the cartels only killed cracker mormons.


https://torontosun.com/news/world/mexic ... dd536/amp/

https://medium.com/lessons-from-history ... 2ff1087296

Locally they hire released felons and worse to kill women and children. Our case was 2 women and 5 children to be executed for "issues".
Welcome to the new America open border idiots. Blame us Amish.

Again this is all part of the plan to destroy living standards, place the populations in total poverty, have a few large multinationals replace all small and medium sized businesses making people completely dependent on government. Fiat. Competiton is a sin.

Hayek noted another fatal as Sentiments similar to those of Monod and Keynes come from a less distinguished yet still influential scientist: the psychoanalyst who became the first Secretary General of the World Health Organisation, G. B. Chisholm. Chisholm advocated no less than `the eradication of the concept of right and wrong' and maintained that it was the task of the psychiatrist to free the human race from `the crippling burden of good and evil' - advice which at the time received praise from high American legal authority.

Even is the 90's it was the view. To a large measure it is.

In other words, traditional morals do not conform to the second, third, and fourth requirements. page 71
https://www.mises.at/static/literatur/B ... onceit.pdf
Nothing new other than the design in a Garden to be ignored.

The first four to Him and other six commandments also ignored is why you will fail.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Sun Jan 01, 2023 2:44 pm
One thing that can be said about this year is that it is highly likely there will be more corruption and fraud this year than there was last year. In playing the lottery economy, it is a good assumption that anything you are seeing in front of you will display more corruption and fraud than your recent experience. For example, if you are trading stocks as I have been, if stocks that you traded were manipulated last year, assume that this year there will be even greater degrees of manipulation and fraud.
The market has been paying close attention to the CPI numbers. Therefore, I suspected, as did others, that this morning's number would be faked to hold the banking system together and maybe even ignite a counter trend stock market rally. A lot of people (likely fewer than in the recent past) seem to have difficulty with the concept of the government manufacturing phony numbers, while others are at the opposite extreme. I've talked in the past about how upper level government bureaucrats can set expectations and have their underlings comply, but don't have time to find those very old posts. Suffice it to say, it's my opinion that any CPI number coming out at a time like this will be massaged for a better outcome and since I've not seen these kinds of things take place in the recent past, probably moreso than I would imagine.

The futures are now up over 40 points. It appears there will be an attempt to break through the recent highs around 3900 on the cash index at the open in a few minutes.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

Post by aeden »

https://fortune.com/2023/03/11/silicon- ... tant-fdic/

Taxpayers covering for the crypto disease in banks blaming 2018 also now.
We were onto SI rather early and guess what. Looted and left for the blood bags called taxpayers.
Uniparty fools looking for pet goats staring them in the mirror.

Them.

Brand On the Spineless covets the left moleks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/wat ... -shut-down

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