Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

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Guest

Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by Guest »

Bob Butler wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:39 am
Trump had difficulties gathering a crowd at his going away event. The MAGA folks who had waved flags with such assurance on January 6th were missing. Trump was defeated, dejected, alone.
Thousands of people welcomed President Trump to Florida.

But nobody showed up at the inauguration...

Bob Butler
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Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by Bob Butler »

John wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:37 pm
DaKardii wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:24 pm
What happens if the Fifth Turning period is short?
The Fourth Turning era ends with a generational crisis war. If there's no such war, then after 20 years there's a Fifth Turning. The Fifth Turning ends with a generational crisis war.

By the way, an unexpected massive invasion could occur in earlier eras, and result in a "First Turning Reset," which ends the earlier era and returns the society to a First Turning Recovery Era -- which is exactly what happens when a generational crisis war occurs.

The way to understand the generational cycle is to understand how a generational crisis war, whenever it occurs, launches the cycle. The crisis war completely traumatizes the population to the extent that they spend the rest of their lives doing everything they can to prevent a repeat. Their children rebel against those attempts, and that what creates the various eras. When the next crisis war occurs, it starts all over again.
Erik’s public Facebook turning group recently ran a poll that asked if “This is the start of the regeneracy?” The result was six yes (including myself), one can’t tell yet, and one probably no.

This seems to reflect an opinion that there can be crisis triggers other than to crisis wars. It reflects that in the Information Age nukes permanently traumatize against crisis wars such that the major powers have not initiated crisis wars. It reflects an opinion that financial games are more cost effective than crisis wars. It indicates that the most significant non war problems a culture faces - in the US case COVID, the economic fallout from COVID, systematic racism and red violence - can have their associated tiggers and center a crisis period.

I’m very aware Generational Dynamics is going a different route. John's post is explicit enough.

The question may be if the next turning is more of an unraveling with two sets of values at odds, or a high with the winning progressive side forcing the values that solved the crisis on the culture. The 'America is dead' posts here convince me that the collapse of the current conservative values is already underway and being mourned. America is dead? The regeneracy is here? Quite a difference.

I’ll just say there are multiple opinions, wait for a possible crisis war, and wait to see what the next turning is like.

FullMoon
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Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by FullMoon »

I'm sure you're a nice old guy, Bob. Delusion clouds your mind. Geopolitical understanding you have not. We all hope this time is different. What you see as crises domestic, are symptoms of deeper issues... that maybe can be resolved only by wiping the slate clean. Intractable they are, and getting worse. Certainly not by our current regime and cohorts.

Bob Butler
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Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by Bob Butler »

FullMoon wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:23 pm
I'm sure you're a nice old guy, Bob. Delusion clouds your mind. Geopolitical understanding you have not. We all hope this time is different. What you see as crises domestic, are symptoms of deeper issues... that maybe can be resolved only by wiping the slate clean. Intractable they are, and getting worse. Certainly not by our current regime and cohorts.
There is just an assumption here that the pattern of civilization has not changed with the advent of the Information Age. Quite valid lessons supposedly learned from earlier times are being clung to. Someone has a faulty geopolitical understanding? It will eventually become clear whose understanding has problems.

FullMoon
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Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by FullMoon »

We can only hope that you're right. I see the trends and it seems people aren't as advanced as we would expect given technological advancements. Sadly. I am planning for the worst and hoping for the best. Being proven wrong at a later date would be a happy thing indeed. It will be a different world regardless, of that we can agree.

Bob Butler
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Joined: Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:48 am

Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by Bob Butler »

FullMoon wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 4:05 pm
We can only hope that you're right. I see the trends and it seems people aren't as advanced as we would expect given technological advancements. Sadly. I am planning for the worst and hoping for the best. Being proven wrong at a later date would be a happy thing indeed. It will be a different world regardless, of that we can agree.
The rural conservative cavalier culture has contributed much to the US over the years. This site is not much into some of the elements that this time seems to have surfaced. There are not a lot of people here promoting elitist division of wealth or the worst racist stereotypes. Those parts of conservative culture could disappear and most should say good riddance?

There is a confusion of the red violence with Black Lives Matter. We would do well to get rid of both the capitol riots and similar violence and the bad cops and systematic racism.

But this site is more about foreign affairs. Nukes, insurgent wars and proxy wars have made war far less cost effective than in the old days. People are rightly concerned that past patterns will be repeated when the major powers have noticed these are bad patterns. Will China get overly enthusiastic about their brinksmanship? Will Russia think they can gain more by invading their neighbors than they are losing in sanctions?

We can hope that a continued containment combined with making financial games profitable will work. Is it guaranteed? Less than obvious either way.

Guest

Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by Guest »

JCP wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:00 pm
American taxpayers (ahem, you know who you are) will not be allowed to leave America, while third world migrants and other ne'er-do-wells will have free access and free stuff. THE WALL will be the loss of passports and the ability to travel. You will lose your homes, jobs, and eventually your lives along with the lives of your children. THE WALL will be constructed to keep you in and take everything you have. including your life.

The welfare classes, so easily tamed by alcohol, drugs, and fast food, will run wild in the crumbling streets. Don't believe me? Look at Zimbabwe or South Africa. That is your future.

Excited?
I'm sure Bob will come along any moment now and tell people not to worry. China Joe is America's most popular president ever...

Cool Breeze
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Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by Cool Breeze »

Are you guys actually still reading that bot's posts? It's best to just not feed the troll. I tried to have a conversation with him, but he's in it only to piss other people off by making the typical inane and unrealistic comments that lefties have. And he does this by going to a place where he knows no one buys the BS = troll city.

Bob Butler
Posts: 252
Joined: Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:48 am

Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by Bob Butler »

spottybrowncow wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:56 am
Bob, I think what guest was trying to say was something like this:

Conservatives think demonstrating personal responsibility is the bulwark of a successful society, and that if everyone practiced it, many societal problems would simply go away.

Liberals think demonstrating personal responsibility is a nearly worthless endeavor, certainly not worth the effort for most people.
That is an entirely respectable statement. The difference is that in urban high density environments, problems are often exaggerated. They are more obvious, less tolerable. Also, people living close together find working as a team and with specialists is more effective.

I am not saying individual action is entirely appropriate in a rural area with people all spread out. In such a place, individualism is a prudent and effective thing. This is a case where what is best for one group is not best for the other.

For example, when I went out to Colorado on the job, I drove around the local mountains a bit. Wild and wonderful. Much that is pristine. Sing a few of John Denver’s songs if you like. I still remember a sign pointing to Two Mile High Stadium. But there were few abandoned mines where they had just dropped everything, left the poison to spread and anything metal to rust. If we had adopted that attitude in my much more population dense Massachusetts, the result would be a much bigger mess. The temptation for urban dwellers is to require more responsibility than is strictly required in Colorado. You just can’t let problems get worse when they are multiplied by a bunch of people living close together.

One thing has occurred to me. John’s Generational Dynamics is based on a heavy dose of what Henrich calls tribal thinking. Divide into us and them. Develop a heavy dose of xenophobia. Use whatever means necessary to advance your group and work against the other. John seems to have attracted an audience which has embraced this, who practice tribal thinking, who have developed xenophobia. Guest’s original post reflected this. He had demonized the other. He reflected opinions and behaviors I am not familiar with in myself or any of my blue friends. Banning meat? Canceling TV shows you don’t personally care for? These are far more xenophobia than actual liberal beliefs. If you work yourself up by dwelling on deliberately oft told lies, is it any wonder that folks do not get along?

Bob Butler
Posts: 252
Joined: Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:48 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Bob Butler »

Guest wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:13 am
Are you saying the violence is not being carried out by BLM (Yes.) but by white supremists groups (Some of it.) and the police in disguise? (No.) The Proud Boys are looting stores? (No.)

You make a lot of noise but say nothing. You simply want to turn a blind eye to racially motivated criminality. Have you driven through an American city lately? They are burned out, boarded up, and abandoned. These cities are never coming back. Never. I don't see white people looting. I see them fleeing the cities and promising to never come back. Is this your "justice"?
I am as law and order as the next guy on handling the criminality. While I am handicapped and under quarantine and thus have not gone into the cities of late, I have heard of no migrations or massive boarding up save the capitol buildings being boarded up against red violence. Boston in particular, the closest city to me, is pretty much as it has always been recently. Our latest clash was on school segregation many decades back, centered on Southie against Roxbury.

The protests and promised action regarding structural racism are pretty much justice. Much of the violence by white supremacy groups is the opposite, an attempt at continued oppression, though it has been more focused on trying to keep Trump in power of late. The looting is greed.
Last edited by Bob Butler on Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

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