Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

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Bob Butler
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WSJ / MSNBC Poll

Post by Bob Butler »

I found the generic R v D Preferred Candidate for Midterm Elections poll. The Wall Street Journal ran the poll, but MSNBC reported it. Supposedly, those preferring Democratic were 41% in March, 47% in August. Those preferring Republican were 46% in March, 44% in August. With a +- 2.7% margin of error, one should obviously not take it too seriously, especially with lots if stuff happening. Lots of time yet.

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Have a shot...

Post by Bob Butler »

Tom Mazanec wrote:
Thu Sep 01, 2022 2:08 am
I have had four shots so far.
Does whisky count? :)

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by Tom Mazanec »

My lifetime consumption of C2H6O is well less than a quart. Maybe less than a pint. And I am 64.
SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

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DeSantis and Martha's Vineyard

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The blue folk are starting to catch up with the Martha’s Vineyard stunt. CNN looked into the past a bit and found the ‘reverse freedom rides’. Back when the real freedom rides were protesting segregation, some segregationist governors exported disadvantaged blacks to New York City. I’m not sure the term Sanctuary City was invented yet, but New York City perhaps invented sanctuary cities. The folks of Martha’s Vineyard might not match NYC in numbers, but they showed up with blankets, casseroles, and whatever they could. The migrants soon found themselves at joint base Otis, where there was housing available.

MSNBC provided a different slant. They had an (angry) immigration lawyer on. DeSantis apparently used Florida funds illegally. The migrants were lied to to get them on the plane. They had to report periodically to the feds while waiting for asylum, which they cannot do while half a country away. They had to move their caseload to Massachusetts. Finally, an immigrant waiting on a visa who has a crime committed against them while they are waiting can apply for a special visa. Further, Massachusetts is one of the few jurisdictions that by law forbids exporting people until the special visa is processed, which takes about seven years. While DeSantis caused short term pain, he may have opened a few doors for a longer stay.

Which got me thinking a bit about the politics of the stunt. Those who want to hurt immigrants and hurt the blue states think the stunt amusing and will vote for DeSantis. Those who remember the time when they or their families were the immigrants will note that the blue states helped the immigrants and vote against DeSantis.

And that may reflect on the difference between red and blue. The red are motivated by hate and want to hurt people. The blue want to help. If the objective was to get DeSantis votes, will in the end he win?

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Polarization

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Tom Mazanec wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 4:23 am
Any opinions on what I see as a growing polarization in American politics?
I have started to note a new dynamic. Normally, the midterm is a referendum on how the president is doing. The party without the White House has the advantage and usually takes at least part of Congress. This time around feels like a referendum on MAGA and Abortion. In particular, the Big Lie is getting harder to believe and the women are mobilizing. This time Congress is still so close that Biden didn’t get anything until recently to hold a referendum on.

Best case for the blue is picking up a few seats in the Senate, killing the filibuster, and passing the rest of their agenda. The less likely case now is losing one or both houses of Congress and a return to stalemate.

I see the crisis part of the S&H cycle as the culture catching up with the technology. We have to move on, not stay the same. We have to take a few steps forward on prejudice. We have to solve the problems, not leave them in existence. I saw something like the above happening, but not so soon and I couldn’t see how it would come. The problem is what happens to those living in the past when this happens? In earlier S&H crises the losers move to Canada, formed the KKK, or copied FDR’s ideas and pretended they were their own. This time? Form a hard dedicated small faction that clings to the past???

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Ukraine Status

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FullMoon wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:30 am
Question:
How 'partial' is the Russian mobilization?
Very partial. They can call up the men. I doubt they can equip them fully and train them properly in a meaningful timeframe.
FullMoon wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:30 am
How much does Russia consider itself to be at war with NATO and what's the most probable trajectory of this conflict?
There is quite clearly a proxy war. NATO is providing equipment, ammunition, information and sanctions. They are not currently pulling triggers. I doubt the Russians are thrilled with this, but what can be done about it? NATO intelligence aircraft in NATO and international airspace could be attacked to open a real NATO conflict, but I could see the Russians being denied use of the sea and the air above Ukraine if they tried this. Russia could not handle just Ukraine forces on the ground. If they tried to take on NATO as well, it would not go well for them.

Thus, the Ukraine counteroffensive is apt to continue to pick up territory. It does not yet seem rapid enough to reach the original borders before the sanctions and Russian opposition to the war forces regime change. Putin has already lost, but is desperately trying to avoid loss of power. At that point NATO exchanging recognition of the new regime and and end to sanctions in return for a return to the original Ukraine border would start the negotiated resolution. Stopping Russia from rearming would be the gravy.

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Failure of the conservative vision

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Burner Prime wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:38 pm
America is done. Finished, Toast. But like a cockroach whose head is chopped off, still scurries about for a while. It's momentum, that's all. Ray Dalio proves how the US is in decline, in favor of an emergent China, who will become the great global superpower and hold the world's reserve currency.
I consider the crisis a time when the conservative stay the same faction loses out and the progressive solve the problem faction brings the culture up to date. As such, we got past Covid without too much economic trouble. The BLM protests did stop much of the efforts by law enforcement to abuse authority. This is partially as the racist organizations attacking minorities are too busy defending themselves from their own acts in the January 6 insurrection to continue driving through protestors and shooting up minority bars. Trump has legal problems and is unpopular among all people, but still capable of claiming Republican primaries. Putin is in trouble in Ukraine. China has enough economic troubles that they cannot afford to alienate the west.

So, yes, the various conservative factions are seeing a lot of issues that are not going their way. Their image on how things ought to go is failing.

This does not mean America is failing, or that other visions of what should be haven’t come out ahead. If the Democrats pick up a few votes in the Senate, they can end the filibuster and pass the rest of their legislative agenda. After years of small government, a government that serves the people could get its innings.

Just another perspective…

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Responding to Global Warming

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If you believe in global warming and increased major hurricanes, what can be done about it? Near the badly hit Fort Myers, the new area of Babcock Ranch tried to answer that question. The first build was a solar power array. The road are designed to flood so the buildings don’t. There are native vegetation areas beside the roads. Their school is one of the only shelters in Florida which doesn’t have the required generator. As the solar grid didn’t go down, they didn’t need it.

Of course, you can keep pretending it isn’t a problem.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/02/us/solar ... index.html

You have to solve the problems…

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Re: Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

Post by Tom Mazanec »

BB, do you think the growing trouble with the economy will impact the Midterms?
SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

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Mid Term Factors

Post by Bob Butler »

Tom Mazanec wrote:
Tue Oct 11, 2022 7:19 am
BB, do you think the growing trouble with the economy will impact the Midterms?
Yes, but the overturning of Roe will too, and the criminality of Trump, and who knows if NATO will make a Biden backed controversial decision. There are a bunch of issues that will impact the Midterms, and I don't know how they will all balance out. Ask again after the Jan 6 committee puts on its show, but that leaves a month for other things to happen.

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