Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

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Bob Butler
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CNN losing viewers?

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Ben Meiselas at the Meidastouch YouTube network is reporting CNN viewership in greatly tanking. He blames it on how new executive Chris Licht is trying to turn CNN into a Trump - MAGA friendly network. I can see how this would be a bad idea. CNN has been traditionally a MSM and blue organization. Any Trump - MAGA viewers would have a hatred and distrust. The existing CNN viewers expect a more MSM blue slant, and would leave to find something they agree with.

Seems to be larger than just the Town Hall event.

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After Putin?

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I have been wondering about NATO after Putin. I can see NATO refusing to kill the sanctions unless Russia disarms. Quite possibly, a post Putin government could be forced to agree. In which case a circumstance might come up which would see NATO severely weakened. What good is a containment alliance against a situation where there is no autocratic expansionist power adjacent? Who would NATO be defending against? Could you see another autocratic expansionist power replacing the threat of Russia? Iran? China?

History aside (easy said) the obvious place for China to expand is into Siberia. No population. No resistance. Expanding in most other directions they run into various hazards. The populace of India? Fighting a sea war with the US? If Russia were to be forcefully disarmed and the common supposed ideology removed, would the conflict naturally go north?

In such a case, could you see Russia pleading to join NATO? Irony, anyone?

Sounds bonkers to me. China cannot go expansionist without worrying about their oil being cut off at sea between the Middle East and the Philippines. The one part of their economy which is still working which they need desperately is the remnants of globalism. They seem to be enthusiastic about threatening everyone in sight and seeming big and intimidating, but their weaknesses are equally outsized.

But at any rate, it does not seem a likely development for this crisis. I just wonder if Russia is forced to disarm, why should the europeans maintain a strong military?

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Tolerating Flaws

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Kavkaz wrote:
Fri Jun 02, 2023 4:57 am
The Russians murdered half my family. I hope the war drags on and millions of Russians die.
It isn’t the Russians I hate so much as a tendency to tolerate Putin. If you tolerate what is wrong with a culture, in this case autocratic expansionist rule, you perpetuate it.

In our culture, prejudice, using the government to impose religious doctrine, and allowing the rich undue influence over the government are the big problems.

I bumped into a blurb asking why the conservatives threatens democracy. They are not so much against democracy. They wish to impose their culture on others. Alas, such imposition imposes on the majority. In a democracy, that will eventually create a problem.

There is a tendency in a S&H crisis for America end up more being itself. Independence. Freedom. Containment. As well as being values, they are important lessons learned about the greatest problems of the time. One just has to note the greatest problems of the time to guess what the new values coming out of the crisis will be.

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Pearl Harbor Sanity and Cracked Carriers

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John wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:12 pm
One possibility is that China could
invade Taiwan, and blame the invasion on
America "purposely" colliding with a
Chinese warplane or warship. This would
presumably convince other countries not
to invade on the side of Taiwan.

This would be insanity, of course, but
no more insane than Japan's bombing of
Pearl Harbor, and no more insane than
other Chinese actions, such as pursuing
military action over the other 21 border
disputes China has with all its
neighbors.
I would not call Pearl Harbor insane, but the only possible response to provocation. The Japanese invasions already started demanded oil among other things. FDR knew he had to get the US involved in the war. Just prior, the White House had generated a memo on how to do this, including cutting off the oil among other things. While there is no proof that FDR saw that memo, all the actions that were proposed to provoke war were taken. This left Japan with little choice but to wake up the sleeping giant. They were counting on democracies being weak and decadent, which turned out to be a grave mistake.

Note, I generally approve of FDR and the end result was positive, but how we likely got there is something the US Government has not been proud of. The other dubious thing that was done is the 90 division policy. We could have mustered many more infantry divisions, but chose to optimize industry instead. The arsenal of democracy, indeed. Let the Russians and Chinese do the dying. It didn't entirely work. We let the Russians get too far west. The Chinese were busy enough saving aid for use against each other that the US had to take out Japan from the Pacific.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War ... alties.svg

Today, I think the Chinese actions are too obvious and too typical of them. They have purposefully provoked all their borders. They are not even capable of generating a collision without making it obvious that that is what they are doing. A successful collision would thus prove nothing but a well known habit of brinksmanship and threat of force.

***

On a slightly different tack, some major cracks have developed on the back of one of the home built Chinese aircraft carriers. This has led to conjecture on corruption, of some in the military accepting bribes to allow acceptance of cheap steel for carrier decks. Will continued provocations result in unusable carriers? Don’t know, but will keep an eye out.

https://twitter.com/OsintTV/status/1665648815737643016

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China and Taiwan

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FullMoon wrote:
Wed Jun 14, 2023 1:42 pm
But it's thinking like that that's gotten us to this point. Neither appeasement nor aggression are suitable at this time. And it's only getting more aggressive and wanting to use violence. We've been stepping up quickly militarily but not diplomatically. That's their fundamental complaint and you're welcome to defend Biden's diplomacy. But they do have some valid complaints.

I believe we're going on the assumption here in this case that it's a tragedy that John saw very early, but now it's all in plain sight. Even cheered on. I hope he's wrong about the nukes. Didn't you read that book Tim recommended? That's going to life after the war begins isn't it?
I'm not a big fan of Communism. They are concerned more with power for themselves than rights and service to the people. Still, every once in a while Marx is right. The oppression of hereditary government or colonial imperialism should be met with revolution. It is what comes afterward that is problematic, never more so than with what happened to China under Mao.

Still, Mao's enemy oppressed the people and continuing to fight them would have been appropriate... in Mao's time. However, at this point the CCP is doing more oppression of the people that the Taiwan government. Their excuse of coming to the aid of the oppressed has long since expired.

There are more practical considerations. China needs oil, and the sea route would be blocked in any conflict. While their navy has become more impressive, I can't see them keeping a sea route open with the Middle East. They are having economic difficulties where the one factor that is still almost working is the remnants of global economics. That is needed. They do have a habit of talking aggressively with their neighbors, but that is talk not war of late. Then too, the best time would have been when Putin was keeping NATO busy. I don't know how long that will continue.

Sure, conservative thinking means things stay the same. War supposedly remains a way to gain power and influence. Thus, there has always been crisis wars, therefore there will always be crisis wars. It isn't clear that the Information Age pattern includes crisis wars.

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Re: Gradually, then suddenly

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Jack Edwards wrote:
Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:26 pm
I'm sorry for all you're going through Navigator. Thanks for posting.

After a whirlwind day of coup talk, what goes through my mind is the Ernest Hemmingway quote: "How do you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly"

Nobody was talking about a coup attempt, and then something that seemed well planned happened, surprising everyone. And then it was gone and now we're left confused.

We could find ourselves suddenly dealing with:
-At war with China
-A major financial collapse
-Some kind of major infrastructure hack
-The press turning on Biden and an impeachment
-A major political assasination
-A major natural disaster

Or most likely something I haven't mentioned and isn't on anyones radar.

What a world!

Regards
Jack
I have been predicting major conservative collapses as usually occurs at the crisis climax. The civic generation gets tired of the old ideas and glorifies the new, making the crisis solutions the new values which are enforced vigorously during the high. Well, we might have conservative throwbacks. There was the creation of the KKK after the reconstruction. Joe McCarthy bugged Ike for a while. But the expected conservative collapse makes me want to tweak Jack’s list.

We could find ourselves suddenly dealing with:

Trump gets indicted a few more times and suddenly crashes the Republican front runner. Some of Ron DeSantis stunts get him in enough legal trouble to remind people of Trump, and there goes number two. MAGA had a nice run, but…

Putin Loses in the Ukraine

I would scramble two of Jack’s items and predict a major financial collapse in China.

Given the lack of attention given global warming, a major natural disaster does seem right. Still, California and the rest of the west finally has water, La Niña might suppress the hurricanes, so this might not be the lead disaster.

We haven’t had a major assassination lately. I suppose we are overdue. Putin?

With overturning Roe handing the Democrats the women’s vote and the Republicans preferring NRA money to attacking the homicide problem, 2024 on for a few generations looks like a landslide. I suppose the people here would rate that as a disaster.

I know some look at the attacks on Trump gathering much approval on the Democratic side the Republicans have tried to attack Biden. I suppose this counts as one of the few upsides of a boring by the book president. Attacking him doesn’t seem to be working. Keeping democracy will be another 2024 issue. Biden working on the economy while the opposition whiffs trying to investigate is also shaping the political atmosphere leading to collapse.

I find myself agreeing with a lot of Jack’s predictions, but he missed a lot of the failures of the old ideas.

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Opposite Approaches

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Guest wrote:
Sun Jul 02, 2023 4:32 am
Bob Butler wrote:
Sun Jul 02, 2023 4:06 am
If the state habitually murders minorities, this sort of thing happens. As Generational Dynamics points out, there is an instinct to hate, oppress and kill those who are different. It goes both ways. With BLM, most of the protests were non violent. It was the conservatives that got into spree killings. I am not surprised that it is going the other way in France. Still, as long as people act violently on their prejudice, they ought to expect a response.
As if on cue, a stupid, hypocritical, and delusional response.
There is an instinct to hate, oppress and kill those that are different. Generational Dynamics centers on it. It take many forms including colonial imperialism, fascism, conquest, drug gang rivalry, and spree killings. If you involve yourself in such activity, you have to assume it will be returned, hate for hate. In the case of France, in might have begun with colonial imperialism in Africa. France focused on those who they tried to turn into an abusable exploitable minority. Remember what we did when we faced colonial imperialism? It’s called the American Revolution? We spin it with those colonized being the good guys, rejecting the instinct by the mother country to dominate the colony.

Early Christianity illustrates an opposite. Religiously expressed, ‘love thy neighbor’ with the good samaritan parable identifying the neighbor. (Everybody.) Democrats have a more secular version, sanctuary cities and attempts to help the minorities and oppressed. The LGBQ would be the latest example. Either way, one strives to help those in need. The other group is one of us, to be helped, not violently different, to be hated.

Which of the two philosophies would you indulge in? France is dealing with colonial imperialism and continued police attempts do murder those who are different. In America, we have drug gangs who are different from each other. Both in different ways are exercising what I call the Marco Polo Bridge instinct. They are different. They use violence. Napoleon, Hitler and Putin did the same. The result, whether it is in Russia, France, Ukraine or America, is much the same. Ugly.

I favor more the Christian and Democratic approach. I believe conflict is not cost effective, that indulging in violence creates a less livable culture.

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Opposite survival traits?

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I guess it isn’t surprising that we have instincts both to treat friends well and enemies poorly. Looks like two opposing survival traits to me. Thus we have opposite doctrines such as Christianity and Democrats on one hand, and Facism and Republicans on the other. (Should I mention drug gangs, bigots, religious folk trying to use the government to enforce doctrines and spree shooters?)

Which is it wise to align with? Would you rather have your culture obsessed with hate or love? Would you help those in need, or hunt those who are different? The path to a better culture seems clear to me.

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Build culture on love or hate?

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El Jefe wrote:
Mon Jul 03, 2023 1:21 pm
thinker wrote:
Sun Jul 02, 2023 10:55 pm
Hello guys, I have been wanting to post but have been very busy, I have a little time so I am posting. Navigator you and your wife as well as John have been in my prayers. On this post I want to talk about the future off the west and the world in general. I was seeing a youtube video on a channel that talks about politics , economics , history and world events. The person in the video said that the far right would eventually come into power in the USA and by the way he didn't necessarily think that this was a bad thing. He explained that the main power base for the left is minorities and this is actually a horrible strategy. He explained that Asians and latins want to integrate into "white" society, and as a latin immigrant I agree with this. Some may say well thinker you are from Cuba and Cubans in the USA are known for being right wing. Well this is true but I am seeing a shift in other latin groups as well. This shift in not just due to economics. It is also due to culture as most latins are Christian and the lefts history of attacking Christianity hurts them in this case. The lefts embrace of criminality also hurts them. Most Latins I have talked to hated the black lives matter riots and think George Floyd and pretty much most of the "innocent" honor students that sparked the BLM movements were nothing more than violent criminals that met the fates they worked towards meeting. He said that with Asians and Latins going more and more towards "whites" and the right this would leave them with the black population and he said this would not work because blacks have never been able to acquire large amounts of power. I think he missed on another problem the left has with what will be left of their power base and that is that it will be too small and it will continue
Mexican Indios don't like white people. I know better. Upper-class white Cubans are not Mexicans. Mexicans don't even like other Mexicans. Mexicans have an extremely brutal cultural and women are disposable after a single use. White Cubans and South Americans are red pilled allies. The rest of Latin American is an open landfill of violent ignoramuses. And these hordes are flooding across the US border. American will be another France soon, just like BLM 2020, but much worse.

Wishful thinking won't save you.
The commonality between Cuba, Mexico, North Africa and the United States is initial colonial imperialism with the Europeans dominant. If the relationship the Europeans are attempting to force is colonial imperialism, it is natural that the natives will come to dislike those that are trying to dominate them. If the emphasis is on disliking those who are different, there is going to be conflict, especially if the Europeans shoot the supposedly different people for no reason but prejudice.

Again, it is the difference between the Christian - Democratic philosophy and the Fascist Republican. For MAGA, it is using the government to enforce their religious doctrine on others, to continue their prejudice, to continue the rich having undue influence over the government. If you can grant that some local cultures do not treat women as well as typical Europeans, stereotyping those oppressed as ‘ignoramuses’ is just plain prejudice.

It is whether you try to help those in need or hate those who are unlike you. The Christian Democratic approach looks like it has captured the vote. Women definitely prefer to control their own bodies, and many prefer to do something about the spree killing - homicide problem rather than collect NRA money for the Republicans.

In response to Thinker, any political party led by Trump should not accuse its opposition of criminality. Yes, the United States has a drug problem. No, BLM was about respecting black lives not about criminality.

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A Wrinkle on Collapse?

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A CNN article was recently titled “Opinion: I’m a conservative who’s waiting for Republicans to come to their senses”. The author was a traditional Republican, favoring national security, global stability and law and order. He dislikes how the MAGA Republicans are opposing the FBI, Justice Department and judiciary, and promoting Trump and Putin over the traditional conservative values. I must say, the opinion has been heard before, all over the main stream media in fact. The article concludes… “In the meantime, conservatives like me will wait for our party to come to its senses.”

What gives? How is it that the current MAGA movement has preempted everything the old conservatives stood for and are widely defending a criminal?

MAGA champions some of the less savory yet highly American values. I short, they are white supremacists, defending some of the European cultural remnants of American culture. Trump never quite declared there to be an official US state religion and used the government to enforce white religious doctrine on those who did not share it. While he affiliated himself with racist organizations and talked about stepping out on 5th Avenue and spree killing, he was wasn’t quite blatant in his support of racism. It seems to me that the Republican loyalty to Trump is a not so hidden commitment to religious bias and racist attitudes.

This does not end my prediction of a conservative collapse. In prior crisis, values like independence, equality, freedom and containment were impressed on the US culture at the expense of old Agricultural Age thinking. Religious doctrines and prejudice against minorities fits with prior bad habits. With modern methods of female reproductive medicine, demographics more and more favoring minorities, and the need to curtail spree and minority killing, it seems like the newer thinking as usual is shaping out to collapse the older. For example, whenever the abortion question is put on the ballot, the women’s vote crushes the religious vote. One’s ability to control one’s own body and family is considered much more important than European religious doctrine.

I know most aren’t predicting a huge swing in the US Senate. I can well see, however, the women’s, minority and arm control positions outweighing the old values. Is it possible that the blue would come just a little ahead in a bunch of places? Is a 67% Senate majority conceivable? If so, can one solve the abortion and Supreme Court corruption problems with impeachment? If the Supreme Court shows no sign of respecting precedent or integrity, but insists on legislating from the bench and massive bribery, would the Senate be forgiven for solving the problem their way?

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