Polyticks: Bob Butler's Perspective

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Bob Butler
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Re: Debt

Post by Bob Butler »

Again, the Obama debt was due to to balance Bush 43's trying to fight a war on a 'no new taxes' peacetime budget and the resultant Great Recession. He left the country ruined, and taught the crisis lesson of 'no boots on the ground' we seem to learn every four score and seven years. I'm assuming that lesson has been learned, thus we won't see another World War II type 90 divisions of infantry effort. That puts the bulk of the debt increase due to the Reagan, Bush 41, Bush 43, Trump habit of buying short term prosperity with debt. I agree the debt is a problem even if you are blind to which presidents caused it. If the Ukraine conflict continues and a large conflict develops near China we are left in a very difficult place. The dip in the debt shown by FRED will likely be very temporary.

Higgenbotham
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Re: Debt

Post by Higgenbotham »

Bob Butler wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2023 5:28 am
Again, the Obama debt was due to to balance Bush 43's trying to fight a war on a 'no new taxes' peacetime budget and the resultant Great Recession. He left the country ruined, and taught the crisis lesson of 'no boots on the ground' we seem to learn every four score and seven years. I'm assuming that lesson has been learned, thus we won't see another World War II type 90 divisions of infantry effort. That puts the bulk of the debt increase due to the Reagan, Bush 41, Bush 43, Trump habit of buying short term prosperity with debt. I agree the debt is a problem even if you are blind to which presidents caused it. If the Ukraine conflict continues and a large conflict develops near China we are left in a very difficult place. The dip in the debt shown by FRED will likely be very temporary.
The Obama debt was Obama's debt, nobody else's. You liberals need to stop pointing fingers and start looking in the mirror.

All of these presidents you have mentioned were liberals who loved debt, some more and some less. Clinton was a liberal who loved fraud and debt. The liberal Republicans were encouraged by the even more liberal Congresses to run up the debt. Nancy Pelosi once said food stamps are keeping the country going. Trying to parse out which of these politicians loved debt more is foolish.

The country is bankrupt and on the verge of collapse. That's the part we've been arguing about.
Bob Butler wrote:
Sat Mar 04, 2023 2:47 pm
You can make all sorts of disaster possibilities, but the fact is that you can't find precedent for it in history. Yes, this time we had Covid, BLM, Jan 6, immigration, Ukraine, etc... But, the three collapses are proceeding and the bipartisan infrastructure bill passed. It's all if you decide to be a pessimist or pay attention to history.
I am paying attention. We're broke. Correct, you can't find precedent in history for how broke we are.
Bob Butler wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:17 pm
Apparently you have not researched crisis spending.
I have. And now you have too.

Now you can turn the tape recorder back on and default to your usual conclusion: Trump did it.
spottybrowncow wrote:
Mon Mar 06, 2023 8:14 pm
He's not aware of anything except that he hates Trump and anyone who supports him.
Sadly, it's really as simple as that.
Yes, I made a mistake above. I should have written: Trump and his supporters did it.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

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Bob Butler
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Re: Debt

Post by Bob Butler »

Hmm. The debt generally came down under Democratic control, went up during Republican. The exception was Bush 43, who fought a war under a peacetime budget and thus triggered the Great Recession. The Republican idea was to buy short term prosperity and thus reelection. The Democratic idea was to cut the Republican debt.

Now you can put on your ideological blinders and read the charts upside down and I can’t stop you. You just can’t convince me that ideological blinders are helpful at this point.

At least we can agree that debt is bad. I hope Biden can keep it going down.

During the Bush 43 administration, the original S&H forum was still active. At the time the posters were fairly evenly split between conservatives and progressives. The great debate was based around treating Iraq War II as resolving the question of Vietnam. As it was put then both wars centered on ‘cut and run’ vs ‘stay the course’. Could you change a foreign culture using force if you stick to it long enough? The conservative position was yes. They pointed at Iraq 2 and said ‘see’. They looked at the calendar and said crisis war, stay the course, Bush 43 for Gray Champion, go McCain go.

I and other progressives were dubious, to say the least.

This went on until Bush 43 cut and run and his Great Recession hit. At that point the conservatives for the most part disappeared from the forum. They have only been able to survive in conservative ghettos since.
Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2023 7:40 am
Yes, I made a mistake above. I should have written: Trump and his supporters did it.
There. You admitted it, though Reagan and both Bushes helped. Did it hurt that much?

Higgenbotham
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Re: Debt

Post by Higgenbotham »

Bob Butler wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2023 8:53 am
Hmm. The debt generally came down under Democratic control, went up during Republican. The exception was Bush 43, who fought a war under a peacetime budget and thus triggered the Great Recession. The Republican idea was to buy short term prosperity and thus reelection. The Democratic idea was to cut the Republican debt.

Now you can put on your ideological blinders and read the charts upside down and I can’t stop you. You just can’t convince me that ideological blinders are helpful at this point.

At least we can agree that debt is bad. I hope Biden can keep it going down.

During the Bush 43 administration, the original S&H forum was still active. At the time the posters were fairly evenly split between conservatives and progressives. The great debate was based around treating Iraq War II as resolving the question of Vietnam. As it was put then both wars centered on ‘cut and run’ vs ‘stay the course’. Could you change a foreign culture using force if you stick to it long enough? The conservative position was yes. They pointed at Iraq 2 and said ‘see’. They looked at the calendar and said crisis war, stay the course, Bush 43 for Gray Champion, go McCain go.

I and other progressives were dubious, to say the least.

This went on until Bush 43 cut and run and his Great Recession hit. At that point the conservatives for the most part disappeared from the forum. They have only been able to survive in conservative ghettos since.
Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2023 7:40 am
Yes, I made a mistake above. I should have written: Trump and his supporters did it.
There. You admitted it, though Reagan and both Bushes helped. Did it hurt that much?

I've been trying to figure out why you've been in such a panic in the past week and why your posts are making less and less sense. Finally, I figured it out:
By the numbers: A new Emerson poll found Trump with a 30-point lead (55%-25%) against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — up from a 26-point lead (55%-29%) over DeSantis in Emerson's January survey.

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll has Trump opening up an 8-point lead on DeSantis (47%-39%), after DeSantis led the former president by 4 in the pollster's previous survey at the beginning of February.

The GOP polling firm Echelon Insights found Trump leading DeSantis by 15 points (46%-31%) on a national ballot test. Last month, the pollster found Trump only leading DeSantis by 2 points (36%-34%).

Fox News' first presidential primary poll, testing the GOP presidential ballot, found Trump leading DeSantis by 15 points (43%-28%).
https://www.axios.com/2023/03/01/trump-polling-february

There's a reason for this: Biden is failing and people know Trump will make a great president again. Make Trump Great Again (MTGA) is taking off!

Why does it hurt so bad? Get on board the Trump train!
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

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Bob Butler
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Republican Primary 2024

Post by Bob Butler »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2023 11:47 am
I've been trying to figure out why you've been in such a panic in the past week and why your posts are making less and less sense. Finally, I figured it out:
By the numbers: A new Emerson poll found Trump with a 30-point lead (55%-25%) against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — up from a 26-point lead (55%-29%) over DeSantis in Emerson's January survey...
https://www.axios.com/2023/03/01/trump-polling-february

There's a reason for this: Biden is failing and people know Trump will make a great president again. Make Trump Great Again (MTGA) is taking off!

Why does it hurt so bad? Get on board the Trump train!
As I anticipate it, either Trump or a MAGA mini Trump will win the Republican primary, then lose the general election. The Republicans are just not addressing the kitchen table issues, trying to help the American people. I'm not sure to what extent his legal woes will hurt Trump, but he might be convicted of something that forbids him from holding office again. No worries either way. He's a loser and as your polls suggest, no one else on the Republican side can currently match him.

Weird guess, but a miss. Have you tried removing your ideological blinders? Have you noted that at the end of a crisis the no change faction generally collapses? Do you understand what collapse means and based your predictions on it? As you remember I predicted three collapses, centered on Putin, XI, and Trump. Therefore...

Higgenbotham
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Re: Republican Primary 2024

Post by Higgenbotham »

Bob Butler wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2023 12:34 pm
Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2023 11:47 am
I've been trying to figure out why you've been in such a panic in the past week and why your posts are making less and less sense. Finally, I figured it out:
By the numbers: A new Emerson poll found Trump with a 30-point lead (55%-25%) against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — up from a 26-point lead (55%-29%) over DeSantis in Emerson's January survey...
https://www.axios.com/2023/03/01/trump-polling-february

There's a reason for this: Biden is failing and people know Trump will make a great president again. Make Trump Great Again (MTGA) is taking off!

Why does it hurt so bad? Get on board the Trump train!
As I anticipate it, either Trump or a MAGA mini Trump will win the Republican primary, then lose the general election. The Republicans are just not addressing the kitchen table issues, trying to help the American people. I'm not sure to what extent his legal woes will hurt Trump, but he might be convicted of something that forbids him from holding office again. No worries either way. He's a loser and as your polls suggest, no one else on the Republican side can currently match him.

Weird guess, but a miss. Have you tried removing your ideological blinders? Have you noted that at the end of a crisis the no change faction generally collapses? Do you understand what collapse means and based your predictions on it? As you remember I predicted three collapses, centered on Putin, XI, and Trump. Therefore...
Trump is rising out of the ashes in spite of a stolen election and media bias. You can't keep a good man down.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

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Bob Butler
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Re: Republican Primary 2024

Post by Bob Butler »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2023 1:13 pm
Trump is rising out of the ashes in spite of a stolen election and media bias. You can't keep a good man down.
Organizing an insurrection? Attempting to influence the running of elections? Stealing documents? Bringing in fake electors? What has Trump to do with good men?

Higgenbotham
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Re: Republican Primary 2024

Post by Higgenbotham »

Bob Butler wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2023 1:20 pm
Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2023 1:13 pm
Trump is rising out of the ashes in spite of a stolen election and media bias. You can't keep a good man down.
Organizing an insurrection? Attempting to influence the running of elections? Stealing documents? Bringing in fake electors? What has Trump to do with good men?
The Biden family is a crime family. That is the real news that the fake news you cite has been attempting to drown out. People are getting wise to it as well as the deteriorating economy and who is responsible - hence, Trump's massive surge in the polls. As the economy continues to worsen, Trump will surge further.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

spottybrowncow
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Re: Republican Primary 2024

Post by spottybrowncow »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Mar 07, 2023 1:38 pm
hence, Trump's massive surge in the polls. As the economy continues to worsen, Trump will surge further.
Another reason he will succeed? I have come to believe that he is actually a candid, caring person, the antithesis of most current Democrats, and far too many Republicans. And I'm a pretty cynical person.

Why do I think this? Here are just two examples:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAbgc41pksE

https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... ident.html

These links both hi-lite simple acts, but they are acts that resound with people because they were by all indications spontaneous, genuine, and caring.
Can you ever in a million years imagine Hillary Clinton doing either of these things? She would sooner spit on you.

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Gullible

Post by Bob Butler »

Can you imagine anyone else holding an insurrection against his own government?

We seem to have digressed away from an increase on the Debt curve being bad to the big picture. The deposition on the Dominion v Fox case shows the MAGA base has been repeatedly lied to. While Carlson has edited the Jan 6 topes to show not much, thus angering the police who were there, it is revealed that he was telling folks what he thought they wanted to hear for financial reasons. along with most of Fox. Hunter's laptop was judged by the pros to be a Russian disinformation plot. A laptop containing sensitive information was forgotten, and ended up in opposition hands? I used to work in a SCIF. That is not how you handle sensitive computers.

The question is how gullible the Republican base has to be. The answer so far is pretty gullible.
Last edited by Bob Butler on Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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