Nuclear War

[FullMoon]

What happened to Navigator?

This is a good question. He's not been heard of for a long time

[Guest]

I think he had surgery.

[Navigator]

I did in fact have surgery shortly after Thanksgiving. This took me out for about a month. But no sooner did I feel better than my wife had a major medical issue. Something we thought had been handled five years ago returned and it has been pretty bad for her. Her mobility is affected, and she has been in a lot of pain. We know what it is, and it is treatable, but not curable. As she gets better I can get back to posting, but she is obviously my top priority.

[Navigator]

Half the military analysts I read or listen to say Russia has been defeated already. The other half say Russia will mobilize and crush Europa. Which one is it, John? Navigator? Any ideas?

It could go either way. As I have mentioned before, war is a giant Pandora's box, you never know how it is going to turn out until you open it (start the war).

As I have also mentioned before, I believe that Russia needs to go into full "war economy" mode in order to win. This has been the case since the initial drives towards Kiev were thwarted.

If Russia doesn't do it, they can only hope for some kind of status quo negotiated peace, but they have so infuriated the Ukrainians that a negotiated settlement is quite a ways off.

It may take Putin dying and the guy running the Wagner group (Yevgeny Prigozhin) to take over. I think he has the best chance to replace Putin (the chance of a democratic "revolt" is small due to the mafia state currently running the country - the person with the most military/police backing is going to take over). Prigozhin wants to go all out, crushing internal corruption along the way.

It may take some time for this to happen, but I do see it eventually impacting Europe, which has not, and will not, ratchet up its own military preparedness, thought that is exactly what it should be doing right now.

[Guest]

Half the military analysts I read or listen to say Russia has been defeated already. The other half say Russia will mobilize and crush Europa. Which one is it, John? Navigator? Any ideas?

It could go either way. As I have mentioned before, war is a giant Pandora's box, you never know how it is going to turn out until you open it (start the war).

As I have also mentioned before, I believe that Russia needs to go into full "war economy" mode in order to win. This has been the case since the initial drives towards Kiev were thwarted.

If Russia doesn't do it, they can only hope for some kind of status quo negotiated peace, but they have so infuriated the Ukrainians that a negotiated settlement is quite a ways off.

It may take Putin dying and the guy running the Wagner group (Yevgeny Prigozhin) to take over. I think he has the best chance to replace Putin (the chance of a democratic "revolt" is small due to the mafia state currently running the country - the person with the most military/police backing is going to take over). Prigozhin wants to go all out, crushing internal corruption along the way.

It may take some time for this to happen, but I do see it eventually impacting Europe, which has not, and will not, ratchet up its own military preparedness, thought that is exactly what it should be doing right now.

I don't think Russia will get its act together this time. The country is intrinsically corrupt. The Putin mafia have stolen everything and left the country in ruins. The professionalism of the Soviet army is long gone. Ethnic Russians don't want to fight. Ethnic minorities are being bled white. I see Russia collapsing again.

[Trevor]

Back in May, I came to the conclusion that the Ukrainian conflict would end in a pyrrhic victory for Russia and I haven't seen much that's shifted my mind on that. Yes, NATO's given them tens of billions in aid, but we wouldn't be supplying them to such a degree if we didn't think Ukraine had at least a chance of survival. When things broke out, most thought it'd end in weeks, if not days, but we overestimated Russia's capability.

You've got close to 100,000 dead on both sides, not including what's likely a high civilian toll, and one thing I am confident in saying is: this war's nowhere near over. They've been locked in a stalemate for around 3 months or better. Whenever there's a big Ukrainian advance, you'll have declarations of "Russia is on the verge of defeat!" Whenever Russia manages to take any territory, it'll be: "Ukraine can't possibly win this war!" The U.S. and many NATO countries are raising their production capacity but this will take time.

If it comes down to it, I do think Putin will formally declare war on Ukraine and begin a mobilization of millions; supplying so many with an economy slightly bigger than Mexico's is another matter. Russia's inability to support its troops led to collapse during the First World War. If not him, it'll be whoever succeeds him.

How Europe responds will depend on the country. Germany and Italy have been dragged kicking and screaming into supporting Ukraine, and at the war's outset, German businessmen told Kiev that sanctions were pointless because Kiev's fate was sealed. Hopes higher gas prices would lead to Europe capitulating hasn't worked out so far, but this can change.

More than anyone else, it's Poland that's doing everything possible to expand their military. They spent 45 years under the Soviet boot, and were invaded by the USSR in 1939, together with Germany. (Russians like to gloss over their collaboration with the Nazis in 1939-1941) They've almost doubled their defense budget, and plan to increase it to 5% of GDP in the next couple years, so they, at least, are taking Russia seriously.

Britain's traditional foreign policy is preventing a single power from controlling Europe, and the Eastern Bloc hasn't forgotten what happened to them in the Cold War. Sweden and Finland are likewise preparing for a conflict. Where I'm a lot less optimistic is Germany, who's already backsliding on their promise to reach 2% of GDP.

[Guest]

Back in May, I came to the conclusion that the Ukrainian conflict would end in a pyrrhic victory for Russia and I haven't seen much that's shifted my mind on that. Yes, NATO's given them tens of billions in aid, but we wouldn't be supplying them to such a degree if we didn't think Ukraine had at least a chance of survival. When things broke out, most thought it'd end in weeks, if not days, but we overestimated Russia's capability.

You've got close to 100,000 dead on both sides, not including what's likely a high civilian toll, and one thing I am confident in saying is: this war's nowhere near over. They've been locked in a stalemate for around 3 months or better. Whenever there's a big Ukrainian advance, you'll have declarations of "Russia is on the verge of defeat!" Whenever Russia manages to take any territory, it'll be: "Ukraine can't possibly win this war!" The U.S. and many NATO countries are raising their production capacity but this will take time.

If it comes down to it, I do think Putin will formally declare war on Ukraine and begin a mobilization of millions; supplying so many with an economy slightly bigger than Mexico's is another matter. Russia's inability to support its troops led to collapse during the First World War. If not him, it'll be whoever succeeds him.

How Europe responds will depend on the country. Germany and Italy have been dragged kicking and screaming into supporting Ukraine, and at the war's outset, German businessmen told Kiev that sanctions were pointless because Kiev's fate was sealed. Hopes higher gas prices would lead to Europe capitulating hasn't worked out so far, but this can change.

More than anyone else, it's Poland that's doing everything possible to expand their military. They spent 45 years under the Soviet boot, and were invaded by the USSR in 1939, together with Germany. (Russians like to gloss over their collaboration with the Nazis in 1939-1941) They've almost doubled their defense budget, and plan to increase it to 5% of GDP in the next couple years, so they, at least, are taking Russia seriously.

Britain's traditional foreign policy is preventing a single power from controlling Europe, and the Eastern Bloc hasn't forgotten what happened to them in the Cold War. Sweden and Finland are likewise preparing for a conflict. Where I'm a lot less optimistic is Germany, who's already backsliding on their promise to reach 2% of GDP.

The Germans have become worthless.

[Iberia]

Half the military analysts I read or listen to say Russia has been defeated already. The other half say Russia will mobilize and crush Europa. Which one is it, John? Navigator? Any ideas?

It could go either way. As I have mentioned before, war is a giant Pandora's box, you never know how it is going to turn out until you open it (start the war).

As I have also mentioned before, I believe that Russia needs to go into full "war economy" mode in order to win. This has been the case since the initial drives towards Kiev were thwarted.

If Russia doesn't do it, they can only hope for some kind of status quo negotiated peace, but they have so infuriated the Ukrainians that a negotiated settlement is quite a ways off.

It may take Putin dying and the guy running the Wagner group (Yevgeny Prigozhin) to take over. I think he has the best chance to replace Putin (the chance of a democratic "revolt" is small due to the mafia state currently running the country - the person with the most military/police backing is going to take over). Prigozhin wants to go all out, crushing internal corruption along the way.

It may take some time for this to happen, but I do see it eventually impacting Europe, which has not, and will not, ratchet up its own military preparedness, thought that is exactly what it should be doing right now.

Iberia here, yes, I'm back. This all begs the question: Do you actually see Russian troops invading mainland Europa? All the way to Iberia?

[Navigator]

Yes, I still see Europe getting invaded when WW3 breaks out. Though at this point it would be a combination of Russian and Chinese troops.

They are not going to get to Iberia, but plenty of Western Europeans will go there as refugees.

[Guest]

Yes, I still see Europe getting invaded when WW3 breaks out. Though at this point it would be a combination of Russian and Chinese troops.

They are not going to get to Iberia, but plenty of Western Europeans will go there as refugees.

I thought Russia and China would become enemies in WW3.