Is geographic location by far the most important?

Read Navigator's book, How To Prepare For The Coming Storms,
for valuable detailed information on what what's coming.
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John
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by John »

** 30-Dec-2020 World View: War, camels and boiling water
Cool Breeze wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:05 pm
> The first answer (and thanks for proving my point) is that I
> didn't make the prediction, which is why I don't have to explain
> myself. Now, I do think probability is high, but the question gets
> at the idea that it is a foregone conclusion, which I sense from
> many around here, and have some doubt about.

> If it weren't such a destiny and doomsday prediction, no one would
> get worked up about anyone questioning it. That's the proof of my
> point. Any fair thinker can see that.
Then I don't understand what point you're trying to make. If you're
saying that WW III is coming and I'm saying that WW III is coming,
then what are you arguing about?

Also, you missed my point with the camel and boiling water analogies.
The point is that the camel's back MUST break, and the water MUST boil
-- and must do so long before 2030.

Cool Breeze
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Cool Breeze »

John wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:11 pm
** 30-Dec-2020 World View: War, camels and boiling water
Cool Breeze wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:05 pm
> The first answer (and thanks for proving my point) is that I
> didn't make the prediction, which is why I don't have to explain
> myself. Now, I do think probability is high, but the question gets
> at the idea that it is a foregone conclusion, which I sense from
> many around here, and have some doubt about.

> If it weren't such a destiny and doomsday prediction, no one would
> get worked up about anyone questioning it. That's the proof of my
> point. Any fair thinker can see that.
Then I don't understand what point you're trying to make. If you're
saying that WW III is coming and I'm saying that WW III is coming,
then what are you arguing about?

Also, you missed my point with the camel and boiling water analogies.
The point is that the camel's back MUST break, and the water MUST boil
-- and must do so long before 2030.
Ok, we may be talking past each other a bit here. My position is that yes, the probability is high, but mostly people are early in predictions. When early, I am always amused at what the explanation is. So humor me here, and let's do it before your 80% probability prediction of it happening from now to 2024:

If no crisis war happens by 2024, what will you say? Will you have any doubt that something about your approach is incorrect? It's an honest question.

John
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by John »

** 30-Dec-2020 World View: Probability of war
Cool Breeze wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:15 pm
> Ok, we may be talking past each other a bit here. My position is
> that yes, the probability is high, but mostly people are early in
> predictions. When early, I am always amused at what the
> explanation is. So humor me here, and let's do it before your 80%
> probability prediction of it happening from now to 2024:

> If no crisis war happens by 2024, what will you say? Will
> you have any doubt that something about your approach is
> incorrect? It's an honest question.
No, of course not. I gave the 80% probability by 2024 as an answer to
a multiple choice question. Actually I think it's higher. But let's
say it's 80%.

Then, if there's no crisis war in the next four years, then the
probability of a crisis war in the four years after that will be the
same or higher, probably 90%.

It's impossible to predict exact dates. I can tell you that the
camel's back will break before 2030, but I can't tell you whether it
will occur in 2021, 2022, 2023, or whatever.

There are two kinds of Generational Dynamics predictions.

The negative prediction is that something won't happen.

The positive prediction is more nuanced:
  • A trend value is large and growing.
  • [Negative prediction] The trend value is continuing to grow.
    Politicians will not prevent it from growing.
  • "If something can't go on forever, then it won't."
So, for example, in 2004 I predicted a major financial crisis as
follows: National debt was large and growing; the national debt will
continue to grow, despite politicians claims to stop it. What I said
at the time is that if the national debt started falling at some
point, then my prediction would be wrong. Lol! That hasn't happened.

I actually thought there would be a crisis by 2009, as the housing and
credit bubbles were bursting. I was amazed to see central banks
around the world flood the banking systems with money, and prevent
the financial crisis.

Today, the national debt is $27 trillion, and growing, which is
ridiculous. So my prediction is that it won't go on forever, and
there will be a financial crisis.

Maybe you disagree with that. Maybe you're a believer in "Modern
Monetary Theory," so that the national debt can increase forever, and
never be paid back. But my prediction is that it won't increase
forever, and there will be a crisis.

When will it happen? In the 2000s decade I would have thought it
would happen long before it reached $27 trillion, so I was wrong in
that "thought." But the precise Generational Dynamics prediction is
still correct. I wouldn't be surprised if the crisis happens next
week. But who knows? Maybe it won't happen until the national debt
is $50 trillion. What do you think? All I can tell you is that it
must happen.

As for WW III, there's no simple number that I can say is growing and
that it can't go on forever. However, I've been talking about growing
xenophobia for years, and it can't continue growing forever before
someone does something stupid.

As it turns out, fortuitously, Pew Research has provided a "global
xenophobia chart" that I recently posted in another thread:

Image
  • Increasingly negative views of China across countries (Pew
    Research)


So I'm saying that this xenophobia is large and growing, and will
continue to grow even though delusional politicians like Biden say
they'll stop it, and I'm saying that this can't go on forever before
someone does something stupid -- a small clash that spirals into a
larger clash that spirals into WW III.

I can't give you a date, but I believe it will be well before 2030.

If you want to get a date estimate, then you can use intuition and
historical comparisons. If you want to guess when the camel's back
will break, then study previous examples of broken camels' backs.

This is one reason why I tell people not to even worry about this
stuff, unless you're psychopathically obsessed like me, or unless
you're going to buy Navigator's Coming Storms book and take steps to
prepare. You might as well just live your life and enjoy it. When
something happens, worry about it then.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Cool Breeze »

You keep skipping the entire point of the post. I understand that you can't predict it perfectly, or super close to it even, that's fine. What I'm getting at is what if nothing happens by even 2030? Will you ever say you are or were wrong? That's what I'm getting at.

We've been through this before. If you tell me something must happen that we can all predict (ie all men must die) in enough time ... then ... what are we even doing here? Are those predictions not meaningless?

Does no other poster see what I'm getting at? This is basic logic.

ps- I've contacted Navi for a copy to support you both.

John
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by John »

** 30-Dec-2020 World View: What are we even doing here?
Cool Breeze wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:15 pm
> You keep skipping the entire point of the post. I understand that
> you can't predict it perfectly, or super close to it even, that's
> fine. What I'm getting at is what if nothing happens by even 2030?
> Will you ever say you are or were wrong? That's what I'm getting
> at.

> We've been through this before. If you tell me something must
> happen that we can all predict (ie all men must die) in enough
> time
... then ... what are we even doing here? Are those
> predictions not meaningless?

> Does no other poster see what I'm getting at? This is basic logic.

> ps- I've contacted Navi for a copy to support you both.
Do you have fire insurance?

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Cool Breeze »

double post, delete
Last edited by Cool Breeze on Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Cool Breeze
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Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Cool Breeze »

John wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:24 pm
** 30-Dec-2020 World View: What are we even doing here?
Cool Breeze wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:15 pm
> You keep skipping the entire point of the post. I understand that
> you can't predict it perfectly, or super close to it even, that's
> fine. What I'm getting at is what if nothing happens by even 2030?
> Will you ever say you are or were wrong? That's what I'm getting
> at.

> We've been through this before. If you tell me something must
> happen that we can all predict (ie all men must die) in enough
> time
... then ... what are we even doing here? Are those
> predictions not meaningless?

> Does no other poster see what I'm getting at? This is basic logic.

> ps- I've contacted Navi for a copy to support you both.
Do you have fire insurance?
No.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by John »

What about medical malpractice insurance?

Cool Breeze
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Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Cool Breeze »

Sure. Continue...

John
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by John »

** 30-Dec-2020 World View: Preparing
Cool Breeze wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:14 pm
> Sure. Continue...
Really? Am I being that subtle?

You prepare for a fire, which might occur at any time, by buying fire
insurance. Or, you can ignore the danger, don't prepare, and just
live your life until a fire happens, and worry about it then.

You prepare for WW III or other catastrophe, which might occur at any
time, by taking the steps outlined in Navigator's book. Or, you can
ignore the danger, don't prepare, and just live your life until a
catastrophe happens, and worry about it then.

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