Is geographic location by far the most important?

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by John »

** 01-Jan-2021 World View: Pariahs
Cool Breeze wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:19 pm
> Absolutely! I will sing your praises. I won't apologize, though -
> Again, I think the probability is high, too - I just don't think
> there is no chance that it won't even by 2030 (what's funny is
> that weirdo Bob and I share some common thinking on this, at least
> a little). I just urge all manner of critical and open thinking
> and that's why I post what I post. And why also I would give you
> the proper, grand acclaim should that happen. Happy New year to
> all.
Oddly enough, I don't believe you.

When Cassandra's predictions turned out to be true, she was assaulted
and raped, and then taken as a sex slave. The Biblical Jeremiah was
thrown into a pit for several months for predicting the fall of
Jerusalem. Winston Churchill was mocked and ridiculed, and then was
thrown out of office as soon as he won the war.

People like me are pariahs who are tolerated because we're right, and
also hated because we're right. If you dared to sing my praises, you
would become a hated pariah as well.
Bob Butler wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:52 pm
> Well you accept 2021 as a deadline? You are predicting a crisis
> war this year?
For the millionth time, no specific dates or deadlines.

FullMoon
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by FullMoon »

Given all the facts on the ground backed up by millennia of history and a (near) genius level of compilation, John has stated 80%chance WW3 in the 2021-24 timeframe. Percentage chance rising with time but with 100% certainty. For those of us who are tasked with the survival of a family/clan, this risk is quite a bit too high. That's what the book is for. And it helps John out a bit too.

Bob Butler
Posts: 274
Joined: Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:48 am

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Bob Butler »

John wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:42 pm
For the millionth time, no specific dates or deadlines.
What? You are reneging on your prediction? You will have to be careful or you might lose your infallibility license. ;)

Trevor
Posts: 1136
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Trevor »

John wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:42 pm
** 01-Jan-2021 World View: Pariahs

People like me are pariahs who are tolerated because we're right, and
also hated because we're right. If you dared to sing my praises, you
would become a hated pariah as well.
Bob Butler wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:52 pm
> Well you accept 2021 as a deadline? You are predicting a crisis
> war this year?
For the millionth time, no specific dates or deadlines.
At least to a degree, I've discovered the same thing. I once got called a white supremacist for reading your book about China and considered a delusional fool, though I didn't mention the theory by name. It was generally in the context of: "That's right wing bullshit; Obama's going to fix all of that!"

I still hope you're wrong about this, even if I think it's unlikely at this point. My main point of disagreement is doubting we'll do much of everything if China attacks Taiwan because nobody's in any mood for war. Hitler took the Rhineland, Austria and Czechoslovakia before the rest of the world made any preparations at all. Even after they invaded Poland, Britain and France made no serious attempt at an offensive.

Bob Butler
Posts: 274
Joined: Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:48 am

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Bob Butler »

John wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:42 pm
People like me are pariahs who are tolerated because we're right, and also hated because we're right. If you dared to sing my praises, you would become a hated pariah as well.
I don't think it is because you are right. You just advocate tribal thinking in a time when a lot of people don't think war is cost effective anymore. The major powers just don't think a crisis war will get you ahead. You could say that they despise you because you are wrong. I know that is my own attitude.

Guest

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Guest »

He's hated because he's right. If he were wrong, he'd be pitied, not hated.

FullMoon
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by FullMoon »

Bob has shown how illogical he is indeed. Seems it's jealousy and inability to rectify his worldview with the conditions we all experience as reality.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 381
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Cool Breeze »

John wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:42 pm
** 01-Jan-2021 World View: Pariahs
Cool Breeze wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:19 pm
> Absolutely! I will sing your praises. I won't apologize, though -
> Again, I think the probability is high, too - I just don't think
> there is no chance that it won't even by 2030 (what's funny is
> that weirdo Bob and I share some common thinking on this, at least
> a little). I just urge all manner of critical and open thinking
> and that's why I post what I post. And why also I would give you
> the proper, grand acclaim should that happen. Happy New year to
> all.
Oddly enough, I don't believe you.

When Cassandra's predictions turned out to be true, she was assaulted
and raped, and then taken as a sex slave. The Biblical Jeremiah was
thrown into a pit for several months for predicting the fall of
Jerusalem. Winston Churchill was mocked and ridiculed, and then was
thrown out of office as soon as he won the war.

People like me are pariahs who are tolerated because we're right, and
also hated because we're right. If you dared to sing my praises, you
would become a hated pariah as well.
Bob Butler wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:52 pm
> Well you accept 2021 as a deadline? You are predicting a crisis
> war this year?
For the millionth time, no specific dates or deadlines.
I'm not a lefty. I am secure in my own achievements and personality, so I am happy for others when they are successful. Only misers, misanthropes and the insecure act as if life is a zero sum game. I will absolutely give you all due credit when your prediction comes true. 100%

Cool Breeze
Posts: 381
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by Cool Breeze »

FullMoon wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:06 am
Bob has shown how illogical he is indeed. Seems it's jealousy and inability to rectify his worldview with the conditions we all experience as reality.
When you are a secure and logical person who acts legitimate questions that expose the truth, you are always in the Socrates gadfly category and people don't like it. They project that word on you "right" when in reality if you are not a narcissist you are in fact just trying to get at what is true. People do not like their weak ideas to be exposed and it's even more uncomfortable for them to be confronted with this. In this sense, I've discovered even weak people, who you would think would be humble given their experiences in life, cannot plainly admit even that they might not know, or could be wrong. Instead they get hot and bothered, which only makes guys like me even more frustrated, because I would never continue if people just admitted that they need to do more research, perhaps reconsider, etc.

Friends have pointed out that the origin of this is typically insecurity from the way others are raised, their family relationships, and self esteem. I have no problem being wrong at all, in fact I welcome it to have an even stronger point of view --- but one final note here --- the same people who hate you for being "right" never remember that you actually are flexible and change your point of view when confronted with an explanation of X that better explains the world. Why? It doesn't stand out (like when they hate your superior logic or idea) and thus the opposite of recall bias, ignorance bias, rules the day.

tim
Posts: 134
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Is geographic location by far the most important?

Post by tim »

An interesting part of the book where it was believed that by showing the world of the destruction an atomic bomb would cause, this would finally end war. I recall John saying Alfred Nobel believed the same thing when he invented dynamite but did not live long enough to see his invention used in WWI.
One person at Los Alamos whom Szilard thought might help with the petition was Edward Teller. Teller declined, although he said, in a letter to Szilard, that he was not untroubled about using the bomb. "First of all let me say that I have no hope of clearing my conscience,"he wrote. "The things we are working on are so terrible that no amount of protesting or fiddling with politics will save our souls...... But I am not really convinced of your objections. I do not feel that there is any chance to outlaw any one weapon. If we have a slim chance of survival, it lies in the possibility to get rid of wars.... Our only hope is in getting the facts of our results before the people. This might help to convince everybody that the next war would be fatal. For this purpose actual combat-use might even be the best thing."
This ironic argument-that the terrible power of the bomb did not mean that it should not be used but that it should be used, not to win the present war but to prevent the next one-carried a lot of weight among the atomic scientists. "The view was that this was going to change war forever," says Philip Morrison, who spent the war at Los Alamos and has been involved with organizations opposing the nuclear arms race ever since.
People felt that it must be brought into the public domain. If people saw what the bomb could do, it was reasoned, they would not allow circumstances to arise in which it would be used again. "In this war the atomic bomb was only a signal to the world," Morrison says. "The real problem was the next war."
"Nothing happens to anybody, that he is not fitted by Nature to bear" - Marcus Aurelius

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