Nuclear War

Trevor
Posts: 1136
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Nuclear War

Post by Trevor »

It probably won't start that way, but I would expect a nuclear exchange before all this is over. Consider what we did to win the Second World War and how close we came to using nuclear weapons in the Cold War.

That being said, I wouldn't expect either China or the United States to use them first. The first country to use nuclear weapons would be the one that's backed into a corner and sees it as the only way to avoid defeat. In a non-crisis war, they'd sue for peace, but this doesn't apply here. My money would be on Pakistan. While Iran and Saudi Arabia may develop them, or Japan and South Korea, Pakistan already has established nuclear program.

India's got a far bigger population than they do, and China won't be able to render much assistance having to fight Taiwan, America, Japan, and numerous others in the Pacific. If they're on the brink of defeat, using nuclear weapons would shift that tide, at least temporarily.

FullMoon
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by FullMoon »

Probably a lot of nukes will be used. I think John has said many times that all of them would be. How it affects the climate as far as farming and the fallout are my immediate worries. Assuming of course my family is properly situated at the time. It was be disastrous for us at present. Knowing beforehand time and place would help my preparations immensely.

tim
Posts: 130
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Nuclear War

Post by tim »

Depending on how the nukes go off, if the fallout is carried into the stratosphere the fallout may circle the Earth and could come down at any time anywhere with precipitation.

Living in Africa or South America is no guarantee that you will be safe from radiation.
"Nothing happens to anybody, that he is not fitted by Nature to bear" - Marcus Aurelius

tim
Posts: 130
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Nuclear War

Post by tim »

Fallout coming here from nuke use in Iran, Pakistan, India, Mid-East, Korea, Taiwan, China, Russia, Japan, etc.

The best documented case for concern in the USA of having overseas radioactive fallout raining down on us here, too, via prevailing westerly trade winds, with plenty of thyroid contaminating radioactive iodine, can be found in the Nuclear War Survival Skills book. This Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a Facility of the U.S. Department of Energy, Updated and Expanded 1987 Edition, details the above and shows where a single, and very small, above ground Chinese nuclear test explosion ("a few hundred kilotons") on December 28, 1966 resulted in the fallout cloud covering most of the United States. (See map 'B' above.)

Cresson H. Kearny, the author of the NWSS book, also states about this now declassified incident:

"It produced fallout that by January 1, 1967 resulted in the fallout cloud covering most of the United States. This one Chinese explosion produced about 15 million curies of iodine- 131 - roughly the same amount as the total release of iodine- 131 into the atmosphere from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster."
"Fallout from the approximately 300 kiloton Chinese test explosion shown in Fig. 1 (Map 'B' above) caused milk from cows that fed on pastures near Oak Ridge, Tennessee and elsewhere to be contaminated with radioiodine, although not with enough to be hazardous to health."

"However, this milk contamination (up to 900 picocuries of radioactive iodine per liter) and the measured dose rates from the gamma rays emitted from fallout particles deposited in different parts of the United States indicate that trans-Pacific fallout from even an overseas nuclear war in which "only" two or three hundred megatons would be exploded could result in tens of thousands of unprepared Americans suffering thyroid injury."

"Perhaps the first nuclear war casualties in the United States will be caused by fallout from an overseas nuclear war in which our country is not a belligerent. As the number of nations with nuclear weapons increases - especially in the Middle East - this generally unrecognized danger to Americans will worsen."

"Trans-Pacific war fallout, carried to an America at peace by the prevailing west-to-east winds that blow around the world, could be several hundred times more dangerous to Americans than fallout from the worst possible overseas nuclear power reactor accident, and many times more dangerous than fallout from a very improbable U.S. nuclear power reactor accident as lethal as the disastrous Chernobyl accident was to Russians."
"Nothing happens to anybody, that he is not fitted by Nature to bear" - Marcus Aurelius

tim
Posts: 130
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Nuclear War

Post by tim »

https://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/18/nyre ... %20ground.
Book Examines Nevada Test That Left Fallout in Troy, N.Y.

Fifty years ago this month, a nuclear bomb test went awry in the desert near Las Vegas, and the result was fallout and a substantial radiation dose in an unexpected place -- Troy, N.Y. A new book on the subject relying heavily on declassified documents shows that the Atomic Energy Commission moved quickly to limit public exposure to radioactive fallout near the blast, while the exposure may actually have been larger in Troy, a city next to Albany.

The test, code-named Simon, occurred on April 25, 1953, atop a 300-foot tower in the Nevada desert. The mushroom cloud rose higher than expected, to 44,000 feet above sea level, where a wind of about 115 miles an hour carried the fallout swiftly to the Northeast. Thirty-six hours later, a severe rainstorm in Troy washed much of the fallout out of the air and into the ground.

The extent of the exposure has come to light gradually. Soon after the explosion, the Atomic Energy Commission said the dose to Troy residents was in the range of 100 millirads, an amount equal to the natural background exposure for most Americans over a four-month period. But in 1982, Representative Samuel S. Stratton, a member of the House Armed Services Committee who then represented the Albany area in Congress, revealed that the actual dose was probably about 20 times larger.
"Nothing happens to anybody, that he is not fitted by Nature to bear" - Marcus Aurelius

John
Posts: 9936
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Nuclear War

Post by John »

** 05-Jan-2021 World View: Mad Magazine 1950s My Fair Lady parody

I have often walked down this street before
But the pavement always stayed beneath my feet before
Now as I walk by I see rubble fly
Boy it's rough on the street where you live.

People stop and stare, they don't bother me
I've got lead underwear, I'm safe as I can be
All the air is filled with radioactivity
And it's worse on the street where you live.

And oh the frightening feeling
As the glow spreads over the land
That exposed to lightning feeling
As the Geiger counter clicks to beat the band.

There are no more trees they've been all knocked down
And you'll never hear a bird in any part of town
As the plane draws near, let's get out of here
Yucca Flats is no street where to live.

Navigator
Posts: 240
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by Navigator »

The book talks about nuclear war. To cut to the chase - I dont expect a nuclear exchange between superpowers. I do expect them to be used at sea. And India/Pakistan.

FullMoon
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by FullMoon »

You hinted at them being used during the wars of annihilation?

tim
Posts: 130
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Nuclear War

Post by tim »

Navigator wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:32 pm
The book talks about nuclear war. To cut to the chase - I dont expect a nuclear exchange between superpowers. I do expect them to be used at sea. And India/Pakistan.
Can you give an exact reason why?

While I do not doubt your book has some good information you are missing the scope and scale of a Crisis War/Fourth Turning.

Reading books on WWII, particularly Inside the Third Reich by Albert Speer, you can see the emotional non-logical strategy Hitler had as the tide of the war had turned. Speer and others wanted to focus production on fighter planes that would stop and limit the ability of the allies to keep bombing German cities and killing civilians. Hitler instead chose to move forward with the V1 and V2 weapons to target British civilians in London, even while German cities were being bombed unopposed.

I am sure there are many maniacs in the CCP who have even less regard for their own people and would rather punish the enemy including the civilians.

Here they are in their own words:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/ ... athanwatts
Major general Zhu Chenghu, a dean at the National Defence University, said he was expressing a private opinion, but his comments, the most inflammatory by a senior government official in 10 years, will fuel growing concerns in Washington about the rise of China.

Speaking at a lecture arranged by the foreign ministry and attended by several foreign correspondents on Thursday, Mr Zhu said China was prepared to initiate non-conventional warfare over Taiwan. "War logic dictates that a weaker power needs to use maximum efforts to defeat a stronger rival," he was reported as saying by the New York Times.

"If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons."

Echoing threats last made in 1995, Mr Zhu, who has a reputation as a hawk in Chinese military circles, said his country was ready to sustain heavy casualties in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other heavily populated areas.

"We Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian," he said. "Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese."


Although Mr Zhu said war was unlikely, his proposal that China should adopt a first-strike nuclear option against the US will alarm the Pentagon.
"Nothing happens to anybody, that he is not fitted by Nature to bear" - Marcus Aurelius

spottybrowncow
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:06 am

Re: Nuclear War

Post by spottybrowncow »

tim wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:32 am
Navigator wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:32 pm
The book talks about nuclear war. To cut to the chase - I dont expect a nuclear exchange between superpowers. I do expect them to be used at sea. And India/Pakistan.
Can you give an exact reason why?

While I do not doubt your book has some good information you are missing the scope and scale of a Crisis War/Fourth Turning.

Reading books on WWII, particularly Inside the Third Reich by Albert Speer, you can see the emotional non-logical strategy Hitler had as the tide of the war had turned. Speer and others wanted to focus production on fighter planes that would stop and limit the ability of the allies to keep bombing German cities and killing civilians. Hitler instead chose to move forward with the V1 and V2 weapons to target British civilians in London, even while German cities were being bombed unopposed.

I am sure there are many maniacs in the CCP who have even less regard for their own people and would rather punish the enemy including the civilians.

Here they are in their own words:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/ ... athanwatts
Major general Zhu Chenghu, a dean at the National Defence University, said he was expressing a private opinion, but his comments, the most inflammatory by a senior government official in 10 years, will fuel growing concerns in Washington about the rise of China.

Speaking at a lecture arranged by the foreign ministry and attended by several foreign correspondents on Thursday, Mr Zhu said China was prepared to initiate non-conventional warfare over Taiwan. "War logic dictates that a weaker power needs to use maximum efforts to defeat a stronger rival," he was reported as saying by the New York Times.

"If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons."

Echoing threats last made in 1995, Mr Zhu, who has a reputation as a hawk in Chinese military circles, said his country was ready to sustain heavy casualties in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other heavily populated areas.

"We Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian," he said. "Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese."


Although Mr Zhu said war was unlikely, his proposal that China should adopt a first-strike nuclear option against the US will alarm the Pentagon.
I'm a little confused by Zhu's comments, which apparently were made around 2005. Did the Chinese actually have the capacity to destroy hundreds of U.S. cities then, or were his words just bluster? Do they actually have that capacity now?

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests