Nuclear War

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for valuable detailed information on what what's coming.
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Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by Navigator »

Guest wrote:
Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:22 am
I thought Russia and China would become enemies in WW3.
I believe that was John's hypothesis years ago. It was never mine. I have always believed the two would be Allies. Note actions and talk coming from both of them lately.

Mark D

Re: Nuclear War

Post by Mark D »

Guest wrote:
Sun Jan 15, 2023 6:30 am
Trevor wrote:
Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:26 am
Back in May, I came to the conclusion that the Ukrainian conflict would end in a pyrrhic victory for Russia and I haven't seen much that's shifted my mind on that. Yes, NATO's given them tens of billions in aid, but we wouldn't be supplying them to such a degree if we didn't think Ukraine had at least a chance of survival. When things broke out, most thought it'd end in weeks, if not days, but we overestimated Russia's capability.

You've got close to 100,000 dead on both sides, not including what's likely a high civilian toll, and one thing I am confident in saying is: this war's nowhere near over. They've been locked in a stalemate for around 3 months or better. Whenever there's a big Ukrainian advance, you'll have declarations of "Russia is on the verge of defeat!" Whenever Russia manages to take any territory, it'll be: "Ukraine can't possibly win this war!" The U.S. and many NATO countries are raising their production capacity but this will take time.

If it comes down to it, I do think Putin will formally declare war on Ukraine and begin a mobilization of millions; supplying so many with an economy slightly bigger than Mexico's is another matter. Russia's inability to support its troops led to collapse during the First World War. If not him, it'll be whoever succeeds him.

How Europe responds will depend on the country. Germany and Italy have been dragged kicking and screaming into supporting Ukraine, and at the war's outset, German businessmen told Kiev that sanctions were pointless because Kiev's fate was sealed. Hopes higher gas prices would lead to Europe capitulating hasn't worked out so far, but this can change.

More than anyone else, it's Poland that's doing everything possible to expand their military. They spent 45 years under the Soviet boot, and were invaded by the USSR in 1939, together with Germany. (Russians like to gloss over their collaboration with the Nazis in 1939-1941) They've almost doubled their defense budget, and plan to increase it to 5% of GDP in the next couple years, so they, at least, are taking Russia seriously.

Britain's traditional foreign policy is preventing a single power from controlling Europe, and the Eastern Bloc hasn't forgotten what happened to them in the Cold War. Sweden and Finland are likewise preparing for a conflict. Where I'm a lot less optimistic is Germany, who's already backsliding on their promise to reach 2% of GDP.
The Germans have become worthless.
Germany has been hiding behind its allies for years. Now it is actively undermining them.

FullMoon
Posts: 772
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by FullMoon »

Mark D wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 12:51 pm
Guest wrote:
Sun Jan 15, 2023 6:30 am
Trevor wrote:
Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:26 am
Back in May, I came to the conclusion that the Ukrainian conflict would end in a pyrrhic victory for Russia and I haven't seen much that's shifted my mind on that. Yes, NATO's given them tens of billions in aid, but we wouldn't be supplying them to such a degree if we didn't think Ukraine had at least a chance of survival. When things broke out, most thought it'd end in weeks, if not days, but we overestimated Russia's capability.

You've got close to 100,000 dead on both sides, not including what's likely a high civilian toll, and one thing I am confident in saying is: this war's nowhere near over. They've been locked in a stalemate for around 3 months or better. Whenever there's a big Ukrainian advance, you'll have declarations of "Russia is on the verge of defeat!" Whenever Russia manages to take any territory, it'll be: "Ukraine can't possibly win this war!" The U.S. and many NATO countries are raising their production capacity but this will take time.

If it comes down to it, I do think Putin will formally declare war on Ukraine and begin a mobilization of millions; supplying so many with an economy slightly bigger than Mexico's is another matter. Russia's inability to support its troops led to collapse during the First World War. If not him, it'll be whoever succeeds him.

How Europe responds will depend on the country. Germany and Italy have been dragged kicking and screaming into supporting Ukraine, and at the war's outset, German businessmen told Kiev that sanctions were pointless because Kiev's fate was sealed. Hopes higher gas prices would lead to Europe capitulating hasn't worked out so far, but this can change.

More than anyone else, it's Poland that's doing everything possible to expand their military. They spent 45 years under the Soviet boot, and were invaded by the USSR in 1939, together with Germany. (Russians like to gloss over their collaboration with the Nazis in 1939-1941) They've almost doubled their defense budget, and plan to increase it to 5% of GDP in the next couple years, so they, at least, are taking Russia seriously.

Britain's traditional foreign policy is preventing a single power from controlling Europe, and the Eastern Bloc hasn't forgotten what happened to them in the Cold War. Sweden and Finland are likewise preparing for a conflict. Where I'm a lot less optimistic is Germany, who's already backsliding on their promise to reach 2% of GDP.
The Germans have become worthless.
Germany has been hiding behind its allies for years. Now it is actively undermining them.
Good information has it that they're not blind to reality, but political will is slow because the history of violence weighs heavily upon them. Wouldn't it be nice if violence wasn't a part of this earthly existence?

FullMoon
Posts: 772
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by FullMoon »

Navigator wrote:
Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:48 am
Guest wrote:
Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:22 am
I thought Russia and China would become enemies in WW3.
I believe that was John's hypothesis years ago. It was never mine. I have always believed the two would be Allies. Note actions and talk coming from both of them lately.
They're allies like Saudis are our allies. Until it's not expedient. If the Chinese can get the way paved through to the European theater, they've got the mongol yoke.
Europeans have family squabbles but they'll have to be set aside in the Civilizational Clash. Russians see themselves as eurocentric more than asiatic, that's all. That's the trend we have to assume when it gets nasty.

Guest

Re: Nuclear War

Post by Guest »

Navigator wrote:
Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:48 am
Guest wrote:
Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:22 am
I thought Russia and China would become enemies in WW3.
I believe that was John's hypothesis years ago. It was never mine. I have always believed the two would be Allies. Note actions and talk coming from both of them lately.
How do you feel about the ear in Ukraine now, Navigator? Do you think sheer numbers will defeat the Ukrainians?

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4180
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Guest wrote:
Sun Jan 29, 2023 7:00 am
Navigator wrote:
Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:48 am
Guest wrote:
Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:22 am
I thought Russia and China would become enemies in WW3.
I believe that was John's hypothesis years ago. It was never mine. I have always believed the two would be Allies. Note actions and talk coming from both of them lately.
How do you feel about the ear in Ukraine now, Navigator? Do you think sheer numbers will defeat the Ukrainians?
My guess (not necessarily his) is that it depends on how much the West throws into the meatgrinder.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by Cool Breeze »

FullMoon wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 10:34 pm
Navigator wrote:
Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:48 am
Guest wrote:
Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:22 am
I thought Russia and China would become enemies in WW3.
I believe that was John's hypothesis years ago. It was never mine. I have always believed the two would be Allies. Note actions and talk coming from both of them lately.
They're allies like Saudis are our allies. Until it's not expedient. If the Chinese can get the way paved through to the European theater, they've got the mongol yoke.
Europeans have family squabbles but they'll have to be set aside in the Civilizational Clash. Russians see themselves as eurocentric more than asiatic, that's all. That's the trend we have to assume when it gets nasty.
Yes, I would presume that's generally John's point of view too - but effectively it's another "it takes time" claim or prediction, which means it is incorrect. Russia is Christian in its essence (I get it, no one really is anymore), and is still far more traditional than anyone else, even with its faults. That makes it more European than any country in the west for over a century, now that they are no longer communist USSR. Europeans have been God-less for a long, long time now, and they are getting what comes to you when that happens (evil, worldly leaders leaders that abuse the population after getting their consent through transfer payments). Of course, the saddest part of it all is that many people even in Europe, and a lot of Americans, are trapped in countries that have these evil rulers, who are closer to communist than anything else in their desire for authority. Many posting on this forum are examples of this (the trapped). Why many in Europe and America don't see it is because the western elites do it far more stealthily than the top down communist nationalists of the Far East, since they have utilized a divide and conquer through media and corporatism, and have a legacy of paid off boomers and olders who don't want the old standard of living to go away (and a "deserved" retirement).

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Nuclear War

Post by John »

Monday, January 30, 2023

Russia and China will be at war with
absolute certainty. Here is some text
that I posted two years ago.


The Russians have hated the Chinese ever
since the Mongols defeated the Chinese
in 1206, and then went on to attack and
conquer almost all the Russian
principalities, and made them bitter
vassals of the Mongol Empire, in a
relationship called the "Mongol Yoke"
that went on for two centuries. The
Russians hate the Chinese.

The Chinese claim parts of Russia's Far
East, including Vladivostok, the home of
Russia's Pacific Fleet, and demand that
it be returned to them, like Hong Kong.
The Chinese are deeply contemptuous of
the Russian barbarians, and are planning
to conquer parts of Russia's Far East.

Russians love West Europeans and
Americans. Chinese are deeply
contemptuous of West European and
American barbarians.

Russians and Indians are long-time
allies. Chinese and Indians hate each
other.

Russia depends on the South China Sea
for commerce. China is illegally
annexing the South China Sea.

Basically, the Russians and the Chinese
hate each other, and the hatred goes
very deep. Under no circumstances will
Russia and China EVER be allied in a
generational crisis war.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by Cool Breeze »

John wrote:
Mon Jan 30, 2023 1:30 pm
Monday, January 30, 2023

Russia and China will be at war with
absolute certainty. Here is some text
that I posted two years ago.


The Russians have hated the Chinese ever
since the Mongols defeated the Chinese
in 1206, and then went on to attack and
conquer almost all the Russian
principalities, and made them bitter
vassals of the Mongol Empire, in a
relationship called the "Mongol Yoke"
that went on for two centuries. The
Russians hate the Chinese.

The Chinese claim parts of Russia's Far
East, including Vladivostok, the home of
Russia's Pacific Fleet, and demand that
it be returned to them, like Hong Kong.
The Chinese are deeply contemptuous of
the Russian barbarians, and are planning
to conquer parts of Russia's Far East.

Russians love West Europeans and
Americans. Chinese are deeply
contemptuous of West European and
American barbarians.

Russians and Indians are long-time
allies. Chinese and Indians hate each
other.

Russia depends on the South China Sea
for commerce. China is illegally
annexing the South China Sea.

Basically, the Russians and the Chinese
hate each other, and the hatred goes
very deep. Under no circumstances will
Russia and China EVER be allied in a
generational crisis war.
What's your current timeline on Russia-China relations, then?

tim
Posts: 1063
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Nuclear War

Post by tim »

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... very-area/
China’s military is engaged in an alarming buildup of forces in “every warfare area,” the chief of Navy intelligence said in recent remarks.

“The military modernization in China in general, not just in the maritime area, is one of the fastest we’ve seen in human history, [and] it goes well beyond what China needs for its defense,” Rear Adm. Michael Studeman told the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, a private group on Jan. 11. “So, what you’ve seen is a buildup in every warfare area.”
I agree with Jeff Nyquist in that if the U.S. starts to understand what the mRNA injections actually are and Americans are able to see the Chinese involvement the Chinese attack will begin.
JEFF NYQUIST says:
JANUARY 28, 2023 AT 2:02 PM
If you have just poisoned your partner at the dinner table, you watch him very carefully to see if he realizes what you have done and suddenly kills you before he keels over. China is watching us with this same vigilance. If we start to figure things out, they may have no choice but to strike.
“Thou shalt not bow down thyself to them, nor serve them: for I the LORD thy God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation of them that hate me; - Exodus 20:5

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