Nuclear War

tim
Posts: 130
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Nuclear War

Post by tim »

spottybrowncow wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:01 am
I'm a little confused by Zhu's comments, which apparently were made around 2005. Did the Chinese actually have the capacity to destroy hundreds of U.S. cities then, or were his words just bluster? Do they actually have that capacity now?
I believe "official" numbers for Chinese nuclear weapons to be around 300. We are underestimating China no different then how Germany was underestimated before WWII. At the time that Germany invaded France, the French military was considered the strongest military in the world. How quickly France was defeated was shocking and unthinkable before it happened.

China has been preparing for a long time now.

https://www.georgetown.edu/news/gu-stud ... r-tunnels/
A group of Georgetown students and their professor have discovered a 3,000-mile-long tunnel system China has built to protect and store its missiles and nuclear weapons.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... story.html
The Chinese have called it their “Underground Great Wall” — a vast network of tunnels designed to hide their country’s increasingly sophisticated missile and nuclear arsenal.

For the past three years, a small band of obsessively dedicated students at Georgetown University has called it something else: homework.

Led by their hard-charging professor, a former top Pentagon official, they have translated hundreds of documents, combed through satellite imagery, obtained restricted Chinese military documents and waded through hundreds of gigabytes of online data.

The result of their effort? The largest body of public knowledge about thousands of miles of tunnels dug by the Second Artillery Corps, a secretive branch of the Chinese military in charge of protecting and deploying its ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads.
The students worked in their dorms translating military texts. They skipped movie nights for marathon sessions reviewing TV clips of missiles being moved from one tunnel structure to another. While their friends read Shakespeare, they gathered in the library to war-game worst-case scenarios of a Chinese nuclear strike on the United States.

Over time, the team grew from a handful of contributors to roughly two dozen. Most spent their time studying the subterranean activities of the Second Artillery Corps.

While the tunnels’ existence was something of an open secret among the handful of experts studying China’s nuclear arms, almost no papers or public reports on the structures existed.
A bigger Chinese arsenal?
In December 2009, just as the students began making progress, the Chinese military admitted for the first time that the Second Artillery had indeed been building a network of tunnels. According to a report by state-run CCTV, China had more than 3,000 miles of tunnels — roughly the distance between Boston and San Francisco — including deep underground bases that could withstand multiple nuclear attacks.

The news shocked Karber and his team. It confirmed the direction of their research, but it also highlighted how little attention the tunnels were garnering outside East Asia.

The lack of interest, particularly in the U.S. media, demonstrated China’s unique position in the world of nuclear arms.

For decades, the focus has been on the two powers with the largest nuclear stockpiles by far — the United States, with 5,000 warheads available for deployment, and Russia, which has 8,000.

But of the five nuclear weapons states recognized by the Non-Proliferation Treaty, China has been the most secretive. While the United States and Russia are bound by bilateral treaties that require on-site inspections, disclosure of forces and bans on certain missiles, China is not.

The assumption for years has been that the Chinese arsenal is relatively small — anywhere from 80 to 400 warheads.

China has encouraged that perception. As the only one of the five original nuclear states with a no-first-use policy, it insists that it keeps a small stockpile only for “minimum deterrence.”


Given China’s lack of transparency, Karber argues, all the experts have to work with are assumptions, which can often be dead wrong. As an example, Karber often recounts to his students his experience of going to Russia with former defense secretary Frank C. Carlucci to discuss U.S. help in securing the Russian nuclear arsenal.

The United States had offered Russia about 20,000 canisters designed to safeguard warheads — a number based on U.S. estimates at the time.

The generals told Karber they needed 40,000.
"Nothing happens to anybody, that he is not fitted by Nature to bear" - Marcus Aurelius


Navigator
Posts: 240
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by Navigator »

tim wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:32 am
Navigator wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:32 pm
The book talks about nuclear war. To cut to the chase - I dont expect a nuclear exchange between superpowers. I do expect them to be used at sea. And India/Pakistan.
Can you give an exact reason why?
I view current world leaders as more like World War One leaders than those of WW2. World War One leaders were more or less rational. WW2 leaders, at least in the case of Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Japanese High Command, were, for the most part, psychopathic murderous criminals.

I don't think that either side wants mutual destruction, which is what a nuclear exchange would mean. I get into why similar things did not happen even during WW2 in the book, and of course, I provide much more detail and insight into the "why's".

The book also gets into what happens after WW3, which is similar to what happened after WW1. The world starts to turn to really bad leaders who have opportunities only because of the destruction of world war (think Hitler, Mussolini, Lenin then Stalin). These people may indeed use these weapons during a post WW3 conflict.

Again, the book provides the details and reasoning.

tim
Posts: 130
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Nuclear War

Post by tim »

Navigator wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:27 pm
tim wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:32 am
Navigator wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:32 pm
The book talks about nuclear war. To cut to the chase - I dont expect a nuclear exchange between superpowers. I do expect them to be used at sea. And India/Pakistan.
Can you give an exact reason why?
I view current world leaders as more like World War One leaders than those of WW2. World War One leaders were more or less rational. WW2 leaders, at least in the case of Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Japanese High Command, were, for the most part, psychopathic murderous criminals.

I don't think that either side wants mutual destruction, which is what a nuclear exchange would mean. I get into why similar things did not happen even during WW2 in the book, and of course, I provide much more detail and insight into the "why's".

The book also gets into what happens after WW3, which is similar to what happened after WW1. The world starts to turn to really bad leaders who have opportunities only because of the destruction of world war (think Hitler, Mussolini, Lenin then Stalin). These people may indeed use these weapons during a post WW3 conflict.

Again, the book provides the details and reasoning.
Have you read John's book? WWI was not a crisis war for the West while WWII was.

Generational Dynamics tells us nukes WILL be used, if you are promising people they will not be used readers may make the wrong decisions and pay for it with their lives.

You've actually made a solid point here by pointing out the differences between WWI and WWII leaders, as this is the difference between a political war and a crisis war.
"Nothing happens to anybody, that he is not fitted by Nature to bear" - Marcus Aurelius

Navigator
Posts: 240
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by Navigator »

tim wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:39 pm
Navigator wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:27 pm
tim wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:32 am


Can you give an exact reason why?
I view current world leaders as more like World War One leaders than those of WW2. World War One leaders were more or less rational. WW2 leaders, at least in the case of Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Japanese High Command, were, for the most part, psychopathic murderous criminals.

I don't think that either side wants mutual destruction, which is what a nuclear exchange would mean. I get into why similar things did not happen even during WW2 in the book, and of course, I provide much more detail and insight into the "why's".

The book also gets into what happens after WW3, which is similar to what happened after WW1. The world starts to turn to really bad leaders who have opportunities only because of the destruction of world war (think Hitler, Mussolini, Lenin then Stalin). These people may indeed use these weapons during a post WW3 conflict.

Again, the book provides the details and reasoning.
Have you read John's book? WWI was not a crisis war for the West while WWII was.

Generational Dynamics tells us nukes WILL be used, if you are promising people they will not be used readers may make the wrong decisions and pay for it with their lives.

You've actually made a solid point here by pointing out the differences between WWI and WWII leaders, as this is the difference between a political war and a crisis war.
I am not always in agreement with John. I believe that he has the general idea correct, and that his distillation of the news is better than major news services. But I have to respectfully disagree on some points.

BTW, my major field of historical study has been WWI. This is the war that changed the world more than almost any other, even more so than WW2.

Nuclear Armageddon is, IMHO, quite a ways away. It would literally mean the end of mortal life on earth, so how does one prepare for that other than being ready to meet your maker?

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Nuclear War

Post by John »

** 08-Jan-2021 World View: World War I
Navigator wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:09 am
> BTW, my major field of historical study has been WWI. This is the
> war that changed the world more than almost any other, even more
> so than WW2.
World War I ended the Russian and Ottoman empires, and was a
generational crisis war for all those regions, including eastern
Europe, and it changed the world in many ways. However, it was not a
generational crisis war for Western Europe or America or India or
China or Australia or southeast Asia. That was World War II.

tim
Posts: 130
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Nuclear War

Post by tim »

Navigator wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:09 am
tim wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:39 pm
Navigator wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:27 pm


I view current world leaders as more like World War One leaders than those of WW2. World War One leaders were more or less rational. WW2 leaders, at least in the case of Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Japanese High Command, were, for the most part, psychopathic murderous criminals.

I don't think that either side wants mutual destruction, which is what a nuclear exchange would mean. I get into why similar things did not happen even during WW2 in the book, and of course, I provide much more detail and insight into the "why's".

The book also gets into what happens after WW3, which is similar to what happened after WW1. The world starts to turn to really bad leaders who have opportunities only because of the destruction of world war (think Hitler, Mussolini, Lenin then Stalin). These people may indeed use these weapons during a post WW3 conflict.

Again, the book provides the details and reasoning.
Have you read John's book? WWI was not a crisis war for the West while WWII was.

Generational Dynamics tells us nukes WILL be used, if you are promising people they will not be used readers may make the wrong decisions and pay for it with their lives.

You've actually made a solid point here by pointing out the differences between WWI and WWII leaders, as this is the difference between a political war and a crisis war.
I am not always in agreement with John. I believe that he has the general idea correct, and that his distillation of the news is better than major news services. But I have to respectfully disagree on some points.

BTW, my major field of historical study has been WWI. This is the war that changed the world more than almost any other, even more so than WW2.

Nuclear Armageddon is, IMHO, quite a ways away. It would literally mean the end of mortal life on earth, so how does one prepare for that other than being ready to meet your maker?
We will have to agree to disagree then.

Also, your comment on nuclear war being the end of life on Earth is not true and dangerous. It is statements such as these that prevent people from taking the minimum precautions that may save lives.
"Nothing happens to anybody, that he is not fitted by Nature to bear" - Marcus Aurelius

Navigator
Posts: 240
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by Navigator »

tim wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:25 pm

We will have to agree to disagree then.

Also, your comment on nuclear war being the end of life on Earth is not true and dangerous. It is statements such as these that prevent people from taking the minimum precautions that may save lives.
I do believe that nuclear weapons will get used at sea, and will be used between India and Pakistan.

Some potential does exist in other areas as well, such as against missile silo sites or naval bases (especially those involved with nuclear missile submarines), but doing this too close to a major city (like San Diego or Seattle) would have the repercussions of potentially starting the nuclear exchange that everyone will want to avoid.

So I do see your point about radiation spreading due to such events. I have no problem with people getting Geiger counters and iodine pills. I, personally, will not go that route, as the dangers of using the iodine pills without medical supervision are too high, IMHO.

I have provided the advice of building a root cellar, and this would be a good fallout shelter (as would most basements), but I do not recommend people building bunkers and so on.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 376
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Nuclear War

Post by Cool Breeze »

I'm in the general camp of Navigator regarding this topic. I could see nuclear arms being used but tactically and not in the 10/10 most dire type predictions frequently seen here. I'm prepared for a lot of this, nevertheless, though.

tim
Posts: 130
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:33 am

Re: Nuclear War

Post by tim »

Navigator wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:24 pm
tim wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:25 pm

We will have to agree to disagree then.

Also, your comment on nuclear war being the end of life on Earth is not true and dangerous. It is statements such as these that prevent people from taking the minimum precautions that may save lives.
I do believe that nuclear weapons will get used at sea, and will be used between India and Pakistan.

Some potential does exist in other areas as well, such as against missile silo sites or naval bases (especially those involved with nuclear missile submarines), but doing this too close to a major city (like San Diego or Seattle) would have the repercussions of potentially starting the nuclear exchange that everyone will want to avoid.

So I do see your point about radiation spreading due to such events. I have no problem with people getting Geiger counters and iodine pills. I, personally, will not go that route, as the dangers of using the iodine pills without medical supervision are too high, IMHO.

I have provided the advice of building a root cellar, and this would be a good fallout shelter (as would most basements), but I do not recommend people building bunkers and so on.
Iodine is a necessary element for the human body. The Japanese on average consume a far higher amount of iodine (seafood) then Americans without problems. You do not need a prescription you can buy iodine over the counter. I disagree that there are "dangers" from using over the counter iodine at recommended dosing. Pre Big-Pharma days doctors used higher doses of iodine to treat sickness.

If you had read John's book and The Fourth Turning and understood the material you would view history as the seasons of the cycle. We are in winter/fourth turning right now, if you had the generational view you would view coming events through the lens of generational theory. Since we are entering the fourth turning the best way to prepare is to study what happened during the last fourth turning and apply those lessons to the modern day.

The fourth turning is total war. Individual human life means nothing, civilians and cities are targeted, etc. Are you a Boomer who thinks the coming war with China will be another Korea, Vietnam, Desert Storm, Middle Eastern Wars on Terrorism? Why did we drop nuclear weapons on two Japanese cities but not use them in Korea or Vietnam?

The G.I. generation and their preparations for nuclear war did not come out of nowhere. We can use their thoughts and tools in order to prepare ourselves. Generational Dynamics can be used to understand and prepare for whats coming if you are able to apply the material. We need to adopt the mindset of the G.I. generation to best prepare ourselves.

There was a reason that the generation that lived through total war was encouraging everyone to have fallout shelters and supplies.

As I said before understanding the cycle is unnatural. I don't mean to insult you personally but you aren't the first person I have come across who is educated and intelligent but unable to understand and apply the generational cycle to the present day.

During WWII Hitler wanted to attacked New York City but the vengeance weapons were unable to go the distance so he attacked civilians in London. The Japanese attempted to attack the American mainland by using balloons with bombs. If either Germany or Japan had nuclear weapons, do you doubt they would have used them on American cities?

https://www.history.com/news/attack-of- ... -years-ago
A huge explosion rocked the placid mountainside. Elsie, the unborn baby and the five children were killed almost instantly by the blast. When a forest ranger in the vicinity came upon the scene, he found the victims radiating out like spokes around a smoldering crater and the 26-year-old minister beating his wife’s burning dress with his bare hands.

What U.S. military investigators sent to the blast scene immediately knew—but didn’t want anyone else to know—was that the strange contraption was a high-altitude balloon bomb launched by Japan to attack North America. After American aircraft bombed Tokyo and other Japanese cities during the Doolittle Raid of 1942, the Japanese military command wanted to retaliate in kind but its manned aircraft were incapable of reaching the West Coast of the United States. What the Japanese military lacked in technology, however, it made up for in geography.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-b ... rica-18833
Nazi Germany was the first nation to deploy cruise and ballistic missiles in combat. The V1 “Buzz Bomb” could fly more than 180 miles powered by a pulse jet before slamming into its target. The slightly longer-range V-2 could shoot up to fifty-five miles high in its ballistic trajectory before plunging unstoppably towards the ground. Both weapons killed thousands of civilians in London and Western European cities. However, the United States remained far out of reach.

Nonetheless, the possibility that the so-called “vengeance weapons” might be mounted on submarines and used to sow chaos along the eastern seaboard of the United States did not escape Allied commanders. After the FBI interrogated a German spy rescued from a destroyed U-Boat, J. Edgar Hoover warned Washington on October 25, 1944, that Germany was planning a submarine-launched buzz bomb attack on the United States. Supposedly, reconnaissance photos depicted what appeared to be launch rails on U-Boats penned in Norway. Two more spies, arrested in December 1944, gave similar accounts of a submarine-launched missile program. In Berlin, minister of war production Albert Speer promised that missiles would fall on New York by February.
"Nothing happens to anybody, that he is not fitted by Nature to bear" - Marcus Aurelius

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