U.S. Civil War
Posted: Wed May 12, 2021 11:45 pm
I know it's been discussed many, many times, including by me, so I decided to make a separate thread for it.
The fault line today is very different than it was between the Union and Confederacy. Most of what I've heard has treated it as red states and blue states going to war with one another. But consider this map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Unit ... shaded.svg
I live in a red enclave in California, universally considered to be one of the bluest states in the nation. The divide today isn't between states, but between urban and rural areas, with suburbs being the most divided of all. Blue states have red enclaves and red states have blue enclaves. The Great Lakes region is perhaps the most divided of all.
So it wouldn't look like two organized armies fighting one another for territory. A civil war, should it break out, would have a much greater resemblance to Yemen, Yugoslavia, Syria, and Lebanon than the Union and Confederacy. Law and order would quickly break down, with criminal gangs filling in the void. Consider how many difficulties the hacked pipeline has given us and multiply it 100-fold. You'd have more than two direct sides, but several different groups all jockeying for control. Foreign involvement would be a certainty as well.
I've listened to this fantasy of people rising up thanks to the Second amendment and crushing any would-be dictator. Should one come to power, that's a pipe dream. Let's say this nightmare came to pass of a President seizing power and declaring himself dictator. First thing you do is shut communications down, allowing you to "disappear" your enemies before they have any idea what's going on. Having guns won't matter if they get you before you can use them. Now some might figure out what's going on, but our hypothetical President would make a lot of progress before some chain of command could be implemented.
As for the chances of things getting that far? I'd put it at around 15%. This is based on nothing but my own speculation, to be clear. I still think it's unlikely for large numbers of people to decide butchering their political opponents is the right course, but I can't completely dismiss the possibility.
The fault line today is very different than it was between the Union and Confederacy. Most of what I've heard has treated it as red states and blue states going to war with one another. But consider this map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Unit ... shaded.svg
I live in a red enclave in California, universally considered to be one of the bluest states in the nation. The divide today isn't between states, but between urban and rural areas, with suburbs being the most divided of all. Blue states have red enclaves and red states have blue enclaves. The Great Lakes region is perhaps the most divided of all.
So it wouldn't look like two organized armies fighting one another for territory. A civil war, should it break out, would have a much greater resemblance to Yemen, Yugoslavia, Syria, and Lebanon than the Union and Confederacy. Law and order would quickly break down, with criminal gangs filling in the void. Consider how many difficulties the hacked pipeline has given us and multiply it 100-fold. You'd have more than two direct sides, but several different groups all jockeying for control. Foreign involvement would be a certainty as well.
I've listened to this fantasy of people rising up thanks to the Second amendment and crushing any would-be dictator. Should one come to power, that's a pipe dream. Let's say this nightmare came to pass of a President seizing power and declaring himself dictator. First thing you do is shut communications down, allowing you to "disappear" your enemies before they have any idea what's going on. Having guns won't matter if they get you before you can use them. Now some might figure out what's going on, but our hypothetical President would make a lot of progress before some chain of command could be implemented.
As for the chances of things getting that far? I'd put it at around 15%. This is based on nothing but my own speculation, to be clear. I still think it's unlikely for large numbers of people to decide butchering their political opponents is the right course, but I can't completely dismiss the possibility.