Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 08-Apr-2019 Vietnam

> My family was from South Vietnam, close to Saigon but not in the
> city itself. My uncle was a soldier in the south Vietnamese army
> but he didn't see any battle. When my family fled on boat, they
> were probably scared that he would be captured by the north
> Vietnamese and tortured or put to death but then there were rumors
> that south Vietnamese deserters were to be imprisoned or killed
> anyway, but by then I think most of south Vietnam was scrambling
> anyway as the northern army was approaching the capital.

I'm sure you know that in the middle of that generational crisis civil
war, anyone could be shot and killed at any time by someone from
either side. Give your parents my congratulations for escaping.

[John]

** 09-Apr-2019 Philippines president Duterte threatens China with 'suicide mission'

The Philippines military is reporting that hundreds of Chinese
coastguard and fishing vessels, including some military warships, had
“swarmed” the Philippines island Pagasa (or Pag-asa or Thitu):

> "It has been observed that Chinese vessels have been
> present in large numbers and for sustained and recurring
> periods—what is commonly referred to as ‘swarming’ tactics—raising
> questions about their intent as well as concerns over their role
> in support of coercive objectives."

The Chinese flotilla began appearing around Thitu in December and
January, about the time the Philippines began its own construction on
one of its islands.

In a speech last week, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said:

> "Let us be friends, but do not touch Pagasa Island and
> the rest. If you make moves there, that's a different story. I
> will tell my soldiers, 'Prepare for suicide
> mission'."

Duterte's first acts when he took office in 2016 were to cut off
relations with the United States, and to take a trip to Beijing, where
he was given the red carpet treatment by China's president Xi Jinping.
Duterte indicated that he would not enforce the earlier ruling by the
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. By
refusing to enforce the ruling, Duterte appeared to be giving
Scarborough Shoal away to the Chinese.

In May of last year, Duterte explained his decision to not enforce the
Tribunal ruling by recounting a conversation he had with Xi Jinping in
2016, in which Xi threatened war:

> "Duterte: Mr. Xi Jinping, I will insist that it is
> ours and we will drill oil. [T]hat is ours and we intend to drill
> oil there. My view is I can drill the oil.

> Xi: Well we are friends. We don’t want to quarrel with you. We
> want to maintain warm relationship, but if you force the issue we
> will go to war.

> Duterte: I’ll drill the oil.

> Xi: Please do not do that because that is ours.

> Duterte: That is according to you. But I have the arbitral
> [referring to the Hague tribunal ruling].

> Xi: Yes, but ours is historical and yours is legal of recent
> memory.

> Duterte: But that’s too far away. It’s almost alien to us to hear
> those words because we were never under Chinese jurisdiction.

> Xi: Well, if you force the issue, we’ll be forced to tell you the
> truth.

> Duterte: So what is the truth?

> Xi: We will go to war. We will fight you."

Note that Xi's claims of historical claims to the South China Sea are
total bullshit, as I've described in detail in my forthcoming book,
"War Between China and Japan."

After recounting the conversation, Duterte added:

> "Are they willing to fight? Because if they are
> willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that? It will result
> in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."

So Duterte decided that he had to accede to China's threats.

Last week's threat of a "suicide mission" seems to be a logical
consequence of Duterte's statements in the past. He says that the
Philippines military is willing to fight, even though it would lose a
war to China and "destroy everything," and now he reaffirms that
statement by threatening a suicide mission.

In the last few years, China has become increasingly nationalistic,
xenophobic, hostile and belligerent, so it seems unlikely that
China's military will back down.

So Duterte has committed to launch is "suicide mission." It remains
to be seen whether he'll follow through.


---- Sources:


-- Duterte’s suicide mission to Pag-asa Island
https://opinion.inquirer.net/120636/dut ... asa-island
(Inquirer, Manila)

-- Philippines / Duterte just threatened to go on a "suicide mission"
against China
https://www.vice.com/en_in/article/mbz8 ... inst-china
(Vice)

-- Philippines Slams China's South China Sea Flotilla
https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/philipp ... -flotilla/
(Diplomat)

---- Related:

** 21-Nov-18 World View -- Philippines president Duterte renews policy of China appeasement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181121


** 11-Sep-18 World View -- Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180911


** 30-May-18 World View -- Philippine President Duterte reverses position, says he would go to war with China over South China Sea
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180530

[Tom Mazanec]

I plan to go on a Pilgrimage to the Holy Land in February. I hope things hold off till then at least!

[John]

** 09-Apr-2019 World View: Tensions growing rapidly in the South China Sea

During the last few weeks, tensions have been growing rapidly
in the South China Sea:

• There's Duterte's threat of a "suicide mission," described
  in the previous article.
• A fleet of warships from Russia docked in the port of Manila, the
  Philippines, early on Monday. There were two destroyers Admiral
  Tributs and Vinogradov, classified as "large, anti-submarine ships,"
  and the Admiral Irkut, described as a "large sea tanker.
  
  This is the second such visit this year, the last one in January. In
  July, the two countries are due to sign a naval cooperation agreement.
  
  There's a certain irony to this, since both Russia and the Philippines
  are historical enemies of China, but in both cases the country
  has been in a "marriage of convenience" with China in recent years.
  However, both countries are expected to be allies of the US and
  the West in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.
• Vietnam has complained about incidents involving China’s repeated
  harassment of Vietnam’s oil and gas operations in its exclusive
  economic zone (EEZ), and China’s various violent attacks against
  Vietnamese fishermen, especially in the waters around the disputed
  Paracels. China's navy has attacked and sank Vietnamese ships.
• Xi Jinping has ordered the PLA (China's military) to be ready to
  invade Taiwan by 2020. Taking exclusive control of the South China
  Sea would be additional preparation for the attack by the Chinese
  invasion force.
• There are reports that the USS Wasp amphibious assault ship has
  been sailing near Scarborough Shoal, which is being illegally claimed
  by China. The reports said that warplanes have been seen landing and
  taking off from the ship.
  
  China seized Scarborough Shoal in 2012 after an extended standoff with
  the Philippines. China later effectively blockaded the lagoon, which
  is rich in fish stocks, and routinely dispatches scores of fishing
  vessels and government-backed “maritime militia” ships to the area to
  continue its de facto blockade.
  
  The Wasp was taking part in the annual Balikatan U.S.-Philippine
  military training exercise “that focuses on maritime security and
  amphibious capabilities, as well as multinational interoperability
  through military exchanges," according to the US Marine Corps. The
  Wasp has been paired with the U.S. Marines Corps’ cutting-edge F-35B
  Lightning II stealth aircraft. The F-35B is the short takeoff and
  vertical landing variant of the aircraft.

This comes as China has been increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic
and militarily hostile and threatening in the South China Sea in the
last few years, especially after it was humiliated by a tribunal at
the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague in
2016. The ruling said that all of China's activities in the
South China Sea were illegal. This ruling was apparently a
turning point for China, as China's policies became more openly
militarily hostile and belligerent.

On September 25, 2015, blatantly lied to the face of Barack Obama
during a joint press conference on the White House lawn about China's
intentions, saying that the South China Sea would never be
militarized. After the Tribunal ruling, China became much more
blatantly open about its criminal acritivies in the South China Sea.

On September 30, 2018, the USS Decatur was conducting a "freedom
of navigation operation" (FONOP) in the South China Sea.
A Chinese navy destroyer Lanzhou drove within
forty-five yards of the USS Decatur as it crossed the bow of the
American warship near Gaven Reef. The Decatur’s commander
averted collision only by deftly swerving to escape the Lanzhou’s
aggressive maneuverings.

Reports in Chinese media indicate that officers in China's military
are calling for military action in the South China Sea in 2019.

At a conference on December 8, 2018, Chinese Air Force Colonel
Commandant Dai Xu referred to the US FONOPs:

"If the U.S. warships break into Chinese waters again,
I suggest that two warships should be sent: one to stop it, and
another one to ram it. ... In our territorial waters, we won't
allow U.S. warships to create disturbance. ...

It would boost the speed of our unification of Taiwan… Let's just
be prepared and wait. Once a strategic opportunity emerges, we
should be ready to take over Taiwan."

Once again, it's worth pointing out that Dai Wu is completely
full of crap claiming them as China's territorial waters.

In a speech on December 20, 2018, Rear Admiral Luo Yuan, the deputy
head of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences said called for the
sinking of two U.S. Navy aircraft carriers to “frighten” the U.S. away
from the SC He said that the key for Chinese domination of the SCS
lies in using ballistic missiles to sink the two carriers, killing as
many American sailors as possible. He said the loss of one super
carrier would cost the US the lives of 5000 service men and
women. Sinking two would double that toll.

"What the United States fears the most is taking
casualties. ... We’ll see how frightened America is."

I'm seen other remarks from Chinese officials intimating that America
would be too frightened to fight China, or would be so afraid of
casualties that it would refuse to fight.

This is so completely delusional that it's almost impossible
to believe. And yet I know from history that this kind
of delusional, nationalistic, xenophobic attitude is common
just before a generational crisis war.

World War I began when a high school student decided to assassinate an
Archduke. World War II began with the Marco Polo Bridge incident,
when a Japanese soldier had to pee, and his absence led to a military
confrontation between the Japanese and Chinese. In these and other
cases, a "small incident" leads to a small military confrontation,
which leads to a larger military confrontation, which leads to
full-scale war within 2-3 months.

This is the difference between the 1990s and today. In the 1990s, the
world was being run by World War II survivors, and they knew how to
compromise and make peace. Today, the world is being run by Gen-Xers,
who have no idea how to compromise, have no desire to make peace, and
believe that the other side will easily be scared off.

China is "swarming" the South China Sea with hundreds, perhaps
thousands, of fishing vessels and warships. Chinese military
officials are encouraging China's navy to confront US FONOPs ships,
with everything from ramming to missiles.

This makes plenty of room for a "small incident" which, in
today's nationalistic, xenophobic world, could easily lead
to full scale war within a few weeks.

--- Sources:


-- Russian warships arrive in the Philippines amid rising South China
Sea tensions
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/08/asia/rus ... index.html
(CNN)

-- Vietnam wants a South China Sea dispute resolution pact with teeth,
not more politics
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/ ... -teeth-not
(South China Morning Post, Hong Kong)

-- U.S. sails massive, F-35-laden warship in disputed South China Sea
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/ ... KyYVaQpB_A
(Japan Times)

-- China vs. America: How a War in the South China Sea Could Start
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... tart-51387
(National interest)



-- Senior Chinese military official urges PLAN to attack US naval
vessels in S. China Sea
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3592985
(Taiwan News, 9-Dec-2018)

-- Dai Xu / Chinese senior military official calls for attacks on US
ships in South China Sea
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2018/1 ... china-sea/
(AmericanMilitaryTimes, 11-Dec-2018)


-- Dai Xu / Chinese military official: ‘We should be ready to take
over Taiwan’
https://www.news.com.au/technology/inno ... 1edbce63ee
(News.com, Australia, 11-Dec-2018)

-- China-US relations heading toward uncharted waters dominate Global
Times annual conference
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1131036.shtml
(GlobalTimes, 9-Dec-2018)

-- ‘Sink two aircraft carriers’: Chinese Admiral’s chilling recipe to
dominate the South China Sea
https://www.news.com.au/technology/inno ... 791aa26e0f
(News.com, Australia, 9-Jan-2019)

[mps92]

I don't know John, I think that quote from Luo Yuan was pretty accurate. I think this nation is terrified of taking casualties. The modern US military fights every war with the most extreme caution I've ever seen from any army in history. The generals are scared of any casualties, but especially scared of heavy casualties. Even if heavy casualties resulted in worthwhile victories, I just don't see the US going to war with China over Taiwan. I think Americans would be very willing to defend Japan, and even South Korea. But not Taiwan.

Here's the scenario that's in my mind: the US thwarts an initial Chinese attack on Taiwan. The Chinese gather reinforcements and attack again, and then again. Eventually, it becomes too costly for the US. We abandon the fight, and Taiwan capitulates. China declares that it is "satisfied" as a world power. The US strikes some sort of BS deal with China, wherein China assures the US that the Taiwanese will be treated just like normal Chinese people, or perhaps even give them the right to emigrate to another country. (Obviously they don't stick to this.)

I think this is a very plausible scenario. Why don't you?

[John]

Trevor?

[Tim1]

https://taskandpurpose.com/japan-f35-mi ... 1.amp.html

An F-35A fighter with Japan's Air Self Defense Force has gone missing while flying over the Pacific Ocean roughly 84 miles from the Japanese mainland.

[Deus Vult]

I don't know John, I think that quote from Luo Yuan was pretty accurate. I think this nation is terrified of taking casualties. The modern US military fights every war with the most extreme caution I've ever seen from any army in history. The generals are scared of any casualties, but especially scared of heavy casualties. Even if heavy casualties resulted in worthwhile victories, I just don't see the US going to war with China over Taiwan. I think Americans would be very willing to defend Japan, and even South Korea. But not Taiwan.

Here's the scenario that's in my mind: the US thwarts an initial Chinese attack on Taiwan. The Chinese gather reinforcements and attack again, and then again. Eventually, it becomes too costly for the US. We abandon the fight, and Taiwan capitulates. China declares that it is "satisfied" as a world power. The US strikes some sort of BS deal with China, wherein China assures the US that the Taiwanese will be treated just like normal Chinese people, or perhaps even give them the right to emigrate to another country. (Obviously they don't stick to this.)

I think this is a very plausible scenario. Why don't you?

No I don't. Because the Taiwanese would fight like tigers, and Donald Trump is not a coward. And neither am I.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Uncle Steve's nifty rocking chair musings...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqrjaUC3oak

[mps92]

No I don't. Because the Taiwanese would fight like tigers, and Donald Trump is not a coward. And neither am I.

Trump would gladly defend Taiwan, but I can't say the same about the rest of the US government or the majority of the American populace. If Trump loses in 2020 then Taiwan's in big trouble, since the Democrats don't seem to think China presents much of a threat. In addition, the socialist wing of the Democratic Party (which appears to be dictating more and more these days) is antiwar beyond reason.