Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
utahbob
Posts: 38
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:10 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby utahbob » Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:26 am

Not much will happen openly. I wonder how much infrastructure the Ministry of State Security (MSS) has in place to surveil the populace. Can they collect SIM or phone numbers from the cell phone system to start pattern analysis and identify key individuals to suppress future operations/opponents? It is not the PLA people should worry about, it is the People's Armed Police Force (PAP) and the MSS. There is supposedly no PAP in HK, but I wonder if they have advance party there conducting reconnaissance and preparations drills. It would take too long to move the PAP into HK with sufficient forces to do anything. The HK government will do what Beijing orders them to do or start disappearing people without consulting with anybody. Kind of going Argentina? The CPC will not do much since HK is separate and any protest there is not an existential threat to its legitimacy unlike Tiananmen Square.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:42 am

** 12-Jun-2019 World View: Hong Kong protests an existential threat to CCP

utahbob wrote:> Not much will happen openly. I wonder how much infrastructure the
> Ministry of State Security (MSS) has in place to surveil the
> populace. Can they collect SIM or phone numbers from the cell
> phone system to start pattern analysis and identify key
> individuals to suppress future operations/opponents? It is not the
> PLA people should worry about, it is the People's Armed Police
> Force (PAP) and the MSS. There is supposedly no PAP in HK, but I
> wonder if they have advance party there conducting reconnaissance
> and preparations drills. It would take too long to move the PAP
> into HK with sufficient forces to do anything. The HK government
> will do what Beijing orders them to do or start disappearing
> people without consulting with anybody. Kind of going Argentina?
> The CPC will not do much since HK is separate and any protest
> there is not an existential threat to its legitimacy unlike
> Tiananmen Square.



When you're considering the question of what the CCP considers to be
an existential threat, then you can't apply reasoning that's anywhere
remotely rational. For example, the CCP considers the cartoon
character Winnie the Pooh to be an existential threat -- not because a
cartoon character is going to do anything, but because the cartoon
character can be used as a symbol around which there may be a massive
rebellion.

For example, the massive multi-year Taiping Rebellion was led by a guy
who believed that he was the son of the Christian God, a younger
brother to Jesus.

The Hong Kong demonstrations, per se, are no threat to the CCP.

But China's history is filled with small demonstrations that spread
and grew into huge rebellions. The CCP considers even a small "mass
event" anywhere in China as an existential threat.

The protests that led to the June 4, 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre
didn't just begin a day earlier. The protests began early in May in
commemoration of the huge protests on May 4, 1919, that launched the
"May 4th Movement." That movement also had to be crushed. By June 4,
1989, the CCP were convinced that the pro-democracy demonstrations
were going to spread and threaten them.

A small demonstration in Hong Kong could easily spread to cities in
the south. Mao's Long March began in the south. The Taiping
Rebellion began in the south. A new rebellion could start in the
south and, if not crushed immediately, could spread north to Beijing
and bring down the CCP.


----- Related:

World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2)
by John James Xenakis
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

utahbob
Posts: 38
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:10 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby utahbob » Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:12 pm

John, I stand corrected. I was suffering from cognitive/western bias and not thinking as a planner from the CPC's Central Commission for Discipline Inspection or Central National Security Commission. My bad.
You might find this interesting: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... rld-island
Like a doomed marriage of convenience.

John
Posts: 8585
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:04 pm

** 12-Jun-2019 Ideological reeducation

utahbob wrote:> John, I stand corrected. I was suffering from cognitive/western
> bias and not thinking as a planner from the CPC's Central
> Commission for Discipline Inspection or Central National Security
> Commission. My bad. You might find this interesting:
> https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... rld-island
> Like a doomed marriage of convenience.



Bob, you and your family are going to require ideological reeducation
to correct your errors. Expect a visit soon from a Chinese security
officer to schedule your sessions.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 952
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:12 pm

John wrote:** 12-Jun-2019 Ideological reeducation

utahbob wrote:> John, I stand corrected. I was suffering from cognitive/western
> bias and not thinking as a planner from the CPC's Central
> Commission for Discipline Inspection or Central National Security
> Commission. My bad. You might find this interesting:
> https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... rld-island
> Like a doomed marriage of convenience.



Bob, you and your family are going to require ideological reeducation
to correct your errors. Expect a visit soon from a Chinese security
officer
to schedule your sessions.


Image

"..they will only hire "tall and attractive" women under the age of 23."

"Sessions",.. <wink>,.. <wink, nod>,.. <nod, nod!>,.. <Wink!>

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:18 am

** 13-Jun-2019 World View: Explosions on two oil tankers in Gulf of Oman

Image
    Two oil supertankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz
    on Thursday morning.

There were explosions on two oil supertankers in the Gulf of Oman on
Thursday morning, near the Strait of Hormuz. Nobody has claimed
credit. Oil prices rose after news of the explosions, but only
slightly. The small size of the oil price increase is being
attributed to the fact that the United States now produces enough for
its internal needs, and has become energy independent.

The explosions come a few weeks after four other oil tankers were
sabotaged off the port city of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.
Subsequent investigations revealed that those four oil tankers were
sabotaged by frogmen who attached remote-controlled limpet mines to
the ships' hulls. The successive explosions in the Gulf of Oman also
point to the use of some form of remotely-controlled explosive device.

Image

    Site of the two explosions on Thursday (marinetraffic.com)

Iran is suspected as the perpetrator or backer of all of these
attacks, though Iran denies it.

Tensions are rising in the Mideast in Yemen, after the Houthis
launched a missile, believed to have been supplied by Iran, that
attacked a Saudi Arabia civilian airport, injuring dozens of
travelers. The Saudis are expected to retaliate.


---- Sources:

-- Gulf of Oman / The Latest: Targeted tankers carried Saudi, Qatar,
UAE cargo
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... a-63680064
(AP, 13-Jun-2019)

-- Explosions on two supertankers carrying Gulf oil. Crews evacuated
https://www.debka.com/explosions-report ... -gulf-oil/
(Debka, 13-Jun-2019)

-- Incident in Gulf of Oman, ‘explosions’ affect two oil tankers -
report
https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Incid ... ort-592351
(Jerusalem Post, 13-Jun-2019)

-- Explosions reported on two tankers in Gulf of Oman
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/ ... 02630.html
(Al-Jazeera, 13-Jun-2019)

-- Yemen war: Houthi missile attack on Saudi airport 'injures 26'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48608213
(BBC, 12-Jun-2019)

---- Related:


Author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's
Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1)
Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supre ... 732738610/

John
Posts: 8585
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:28 pm

** 13-Jun-2019 Ebola spreads from DR Congo to Uganda

Ebola continues to spread in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC), in North Kivu and Ituri provinces. There have been over 2,000
cases of Ebola, with over 1,400 deaths since the outbreak began in
August, 2018. There is a huge ethnic war going on in those two
provinces, and the war is preventing health workers from containing
the disease.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has been reluctant to declare the
oubreak as "A Public Health Emergency of International Concern," since
up until this week the diseased has not crossed national borders into
Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi or South Sudan. However, with two cases
confirmed in Uganda in the last three days, WHO is holding an
emergency meeting to make a new assessment.

Apparently a Uganda family recently crossed over into DRC to attend
the funeral of a relative who had died of Ebola. When they returned
to Uganda, family members started showing fevers and other symptoms of
Ebola. The family's five-year-old boy died on Tuesday, and his
50-year-old grandmother died on Thursday morning. Other members of
the same family are exhibiting symptoms.

Health officials have reacted by sending the entire family back to
DRC. That means that there are no longer any confirmed Ebola cases in
Uganda. However, contact tracing is continuing in Uganda to track
down people who had come in contact with the family, and hundreds of
health workers in western Uganda are being vaccinated. In addition,
Uganda has banned all public gatherings in the Kasese district, in
western Uganda.

Health officials in DRC are now using clear plastic body bags at
funerals, rather than black body bags. This permits family members to
see their dead relatives at funerals, without having to touch them and
risk contracting Ebola.


---- Sources:

-- Ebola spreads in Uganda—2 deaths, 27 in contact—as WHO calls
emergency meeting
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/06 ... y-meeting/
(ArsTechnica, 13-Jun-2019)

-- Ebola / DRC / Uganda bans public gatherings in Kasese district amid
Ebola fears
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/ ... 14340.html
(AlJaz, 13-Jun-2019)

-- DRC / Ebola outbreak: Grandmother dies in Uganda
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-48622635
(BBC, 13-Jun-2019)

John
Posts: 8585
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:22 pm

** 13-Jun-2019 War Between China and Japan - Kindle version

The Kindle version of my new book is now available:

World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2)
by John James Xenakis
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

Kindle: $9.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07T1FDC8W


Image


Image

mooreupp
Posts: 20
Joined: Thu May 19, 2011 6:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby mooreupp » Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:17 am

Forgot this thread existed and happy to find. Will have download book. Thanks John

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Xeraphim1 » Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:34 pm

My copy arrived yesterday. Looking forward to reading it over the weekend.


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