Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:15 pm

12-Jul-19 World View -- Syria war may be fizzling, as al-Assad 'hits a wall' in Idlib

Does the Syria war have a political solution?

** 12-Jul-19 World View -- Syria war may be fizzling, as al-Assad 'hits a wall' in Idlib
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190712.htm#e190712





Contents:
Syria war may be fizzling, with Idlib conflict frozen
Al-Assad 'hits a wall'
The instability of Idlib province
Does the Syria war have a political solution?
Sources:


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Hezbollah, Bashar al-Assad,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Idlib, Hama, Latakia,
Russia, Iran, Latakia, Aleppo,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Kurds, Rajova, People’s Protection Units, YPG,
Free Syrian Army, FSA

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:56 am

But now, Russia wants to be main power in the Mideast. Furthermore, Russia does not want any more Mideast wars, since they would inevitably require Russia to intervene. So Russia wants to support Turkey in preventing a massive new refugee crisis in Idlib. Russia would also like to keep Iran and Hezbollah under control, so that they don't threaten a war with Israel.


So how does all of this bode for Israel? Will Russia be a friend or a foe? Will Israel become a Russian client state? (I doubt the Russians would want to foot the bill for that.)

utahbob
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Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:10 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby utahbob » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:35 am

Syria will be unofficially broken up into zones of influence based on ethnic, tribal and financial factors. The Assad regime will be the internationally recognized sovereign of Syria (postal, passports, currency,...), but the reality on the ground will way different. I think Spengler hit it on the head: all the sides are exhausted or reaching to the bottom of pool of manpower. https://www.globalstrikemedia.com/uploa ... _times.pdf

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:54 pm

** 12-Jul-2019 Syria in World War II

> Wasn't Syria in a Crisis during the Second World War? It was a
> combat zone between the Vichy -associated colonial rulers on the
> one side, and the British and the Free French on the other. The
> Nazis tried to establish a corridor of pro-Axis regimes in Syria
> and Lebanon (the French mandate sheared off Ottoman Turkey), Iraq
> under the fascistic regime of al-Gailani, and the absolute
> monarchy of Reza Shah I (not to be confused with his son Reza Shah
> II, Shah of Iran until the Islamic Revolution of 1979). The
> British and Free French overthrew the Vichy rulers of Syria; the
> British overthrew the pro-Nazi fascistic regime in Iraq; the
> Soviet Union occupied northern Iran and the British occupied
> southern Iran.


No, absolutely not. World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman
Empire was a crisis war for Syria and the region. There were armies
on the ground in Syria during WW II, but they were mostly fighting
each other. WW II was an Awakening era war for the Mideast and
Russia.

Syria's next generational crisis was the Syrian civil war between
Shia/Alawites and Sunni Arabs, climaxing with the Hama massacre in
1982.

Here's an article that goes into the Alawite-Sunni history:

-- Roots of Alawite-Sunni Rivalry in Syria
https://www.mepc.org/roots-alawite-sunni-rivalry-syria
(Middle East Policy Council, Summer 2017))

> I recognize the rise of any totalitarian order as a Crisis in
> itself ...


Lots of things are crises. The hurricane approaching New Orleans this
weekend is a major crisis, but it's not a generational crisis war.
Neither is the rise of a totalitarian order.

> If you wonder how relevant this is to America -- this Crisis will
> either establish Donald Trump as the founder of a new political
> order -- at least authoritarian in its service of rentier-based
> capitalism or the repudiation of the plutocratic principles that
> Donald Trump expounds. It may have been hard to believe that
> democracy could die in America, but it can -- and it will not die
> of some predictable form of political senescence.


More idiotic nonsense based in vitriolic hatred of 60 million
Trump supporters.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 876
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:40 pm

Guest wrote:
But now, Russia wants to be main power in the Mideast. Furthermore, Russia does not want any more Mideast wars, since they would inevitably require Russia to intervene. So Russia wants to support Turkey in preventing a massive new refugee crisis in Idlib. Russia would also like to keep Iran and Hezbollah under control, so that they don't threaten a war with Israel.


So how does all of this bode for Israel? Will Russia be a friend or a foe? Will Israel become a Russian client state? (I doubt the Russians would want to foot the bill for that.)


Iran, Russia, Israel, "Syria" (whatever that may mean) will "unite" (?) as a regional part of "The West", nominally "under" the US.

..how that comes into being, I have lots of ideas but none with any confidence over about 14% (percentage arrived at by abject outta-ass-pullery).

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:02 am

The PLA warned among other things that the move "severely undermined Sino-US military-to-military relations" at an already sensitive juncture in relations
Crocodile cries a river!

If they were really worried about, "... undermined Sino-US military-to-military relations ...", they would not have delineated a Nine-Dash-Line, and then spent billions over the past 10 years building up ships and then making attack bases on the main reefs within the South China Sea, within other country's EEZ, which China flat-out refuses to recognize or negotiate about.

Nor tried to claim Japanese territory as a Chinese island, which has triggered to the Japanese to build up and F-35B carrier fleet and arm its Islands with anti-ship and long range land-attack cruise missiles.

A disingenuous pack of endlessly whining belligerent lying CHICOM filth who keep crying that they're totally 'innocent'.



TO HELL WITH CHINA!

groot

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby groot » Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:09 am

I got six words for ya China

Sea mines

Malaca Straights

****

You

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:19 am

Trump's Huawei Reprieve Is a National Security Debacle
by Gordon G. Chang

Huawei is in no position to resist Beijing's demands to illicitly gather intelligence. For one thing, Beijing owns Huawei. The Shenzhen-based enterprise maintains it is "employee-owned," but that is an exaggeration. Founder Ren Zhengfei holds a 1 percent stake, and the remainder is effectively owned by the state. Moreover, in the Communist Party's top-down system, no one can resist a command from the ruling organization.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1453 ... exemptions

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 876
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Sat Jul 13, 2019 2:14 am

Guest wrote:Trump's Huawei Reprieve Is a National Security Debacle
by Gordon G. Chang

Huawei is in no position to resist Beijing's demands to illicitly gather intelligence. For one thing, Beijing owns Huawei. The Shenzhen-based enterprise maintains it is "employee-owned," but that is an exaggeration. Founder Ren Zhengfei holds a 1 percent stake, and the remainder is effectively owned by the state. Moreover, in the Communist Party's top-down system, no one can resist a command from the ruling organization.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1453 ... exemptions


I thought that US companies could SELL products TO Huawei, but that it was still unlawful to BUY products FROM Huawei.

..perhaps we (the US, at least) have figured out how to BACKDOOR any Huawei product made from something that WE sell to THEM?

Thoughts? :)

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Sat Jul 13, 2019 8:36 am

Trump keeps caving on immigration, the census, and trade. America is finished. If you have the ability to leave, emigrate now while you still can. Unless you like living a failed narco like Mexico. Some people do.


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