Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:27 am

** 09-Oct-2019 World View: US troop withdrawal from Syria
David Horn wrote:> My point from day one hasn't changed. We had absolutely no
> business walking away in Tora Bora, when al Qaeda was there for
> the taking. If we had done that, told the Taliban not to try
> anything similar in the future and left, none of the post-911
> nonsense in the Middle East would have occurred. Iraq? That was a
> clusterf*ck from the minute the idea crept into Dick Cheney's
> head. We've paid for it 50-fold ever since.

> But once you make the decision to go all-in, the onus shifts to
> you , and that's where the US finds itself after the Neocon
> Follies. We buried ourselves in the region, and, among other
> things, made and received commitments with the Kurds which they
> kept in full. Walking away, leaving them to the tender mercies of
> Erdogan, would be criminal in and of itself, but classically self
> defeating if another conflict occurs -- as it probably will at
> some point.

> I assume you see this, but you were having fun be sarcastic.


Actually, I didn't see this at all. I just assumed that, like almost
all people on the left, you favored the Iraq war when everyone thought
Saddam was developing WMDs, and then after the war showed that Saddam
was not developing WMDs, you changed your mind and decided that, oh,
you were against the war all along. And let's face it. When you use
phrases like "The Scumbag In Chief," as in your previous post, you're
self-identifying as someone as purely ideological who shouldn't be
taken seriously, and that everything you say is based on your
vitriolic hatred of Trump and Bush, and your devoted love and
adoration of Obama. The result was "having fun being sarcastic." A
guy's gotta have some fun.

But OK, you're saying that's wrong, and that in fact you've been
consistently taking principled positions, based on something like the
following principle:

Principle: Once you make the decision to go all-in, then you have
to stay in, until {some undefined} condition is met.


So let's see how this is applied:

  • When Democrats demanded that Bush withdraw from Iraq, you must
    have said that the Democrats are wrong, since Iraq was still fighting
    jihadists in al-Qaeda in Iraq.
  • When Obama withdrew from Iraq, you must have opposed Obama's
    decision (just as you currently oppose Trump's decision to withdraw)
    because Iraq was still fighting jihadists.
  • And so now, following the same principle, you oppose Trump's plans
    to withdraw troops from Syria and Afghanistan.

The principle that once you're "all in" you can never leave is
interesting. We still have troops in Germany since the end of WW II.
We still have troops in South Korea since the end of the Korean War.
In Africa alone, we have 6,000 troops in missions in 53 African
countries. I guess they're there forever.

Are we really "all in" in Syria forever? I assume not, since we've
provided weapons, intelligence and air support to the Kurds for the
purpose of defeating ISIS, but not troops. That doesn't seem like
"all in" to me.

Trump says that the original agreement with the Kurds was that we'd
provide support, weapons and money for 30 to 90 days until ISIS was
defeated, and then we'd leave. Trump says that there was never any
commitment to protect the Kurds forever.

Then there's the question of why it's only America's problem. This is
also Europe's problem -- in fact, it's much worse for them -- so why
can't Britain, France and Germany take responsibility for protecting
the Kurds, and for taking back ISIS prisoners from their own
countries? Why is it up to just the US to protect the Kurds forever,
and to transfer 50,000 prisoners to Guantánamo prison? Why can't the
Europeans take responsibility for them? The Europeans can move all
50,000 prisoners to some Mediterranean island, and handle them by
themselves.

Also, Turkey is a Nato member with a population that includes 14
million Kurds. If Turkey can govern its own 14 million Kurdish
citizens, why can't we allow Turkey to govern 2 million more Kurds in
Syria? Some Kurds in Turkey support the PKK, and some Kurds in Syria
support the PKK. Why can't Turkey govern both? And does it really
make sense for American soldiers to be responsible for years,
centuries, and millennia to come to sit between the Turks and the
Syrian Kurds?

Finally, Erdogan said he was going ahead with the invasion whether
Americans occupy the observation posts or not. So what's the point of
putting them in the crossfire if they're not accomplishing anything?

So that's the reasoning of the "Scumbag in Chief."

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:28 am

** 09-Oct-2019 World View: Turkey begins 'Operation Peace Spring' in northern Syria

According to a tweet this morning from Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan:

"Our Turkish Armed Forces with Syrian National Army
has started the #OperationPeaceSpring against the PKK/YPG and
Daesh terrorist organizations, in northern Syria. Our aim is to
wipe out the terror corridor, trying to be implemented in our
southern border, and bring peace and security to the region.

With Operation Peace Spring, we will eliminate the terror threats
towards our country. With the SAFE ZONE we will establish, we will
provide the return of Syrian refugees to their countries. We will
protect the territorial integrity of Syria and save the region’s
people from the claws of terror."


Image
    Map showing the buffer zone or safe zone in Syria
    (Anadolu)

There are few details available, but so far we know that there are
Turkish airstrikes and Turkish Armed Forces, the latter joining the
Arab forces in the Syrian National Army.

---- Sources:

-- Operation Peace Spring starts in N Syria: Erdogan
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkis ... gan-147320
(Hurriyet, Ankara, 9-Oct-2019)

-- Operation Peace Spring starts in N Syria: Erdogan
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/op ... an/1607147
(Anadolu, Ankara, 9-Oct-2019)

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:50 pm

11-Oct-19 World View -- Turkey defends Syria invasion, despite almost universal condemnation


Turkey's Erdogan responds to European Union's threat with his own threat

** 11-Oct-19 World View -- Turkey defends Syria invasion, despite almost universal condemnation
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e191011.htm#e191011




Contents:
European Union threatens Turkey, after Syria invasion
United Nations makes new delusional statements on Syria
Turkey's Erdogan responds to European Union's threat with his own threat
ISIS prisoners in limbo
Anti-war politicians blame Donald Trump


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Kurds, Bashar al-Assad, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
European Union, Federica Mogherini, Nato,
UN Security Council Resolution 2254,
Russia, Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase,
Kofi Annon, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Roj, Ain ISSA, al-Hol, Guantánamo prison

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:37 am

If America is going to be swamped and drowned by Latinos, then let Europe be drowned by Arabs and blacks. It's only fair.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Fri Oct 11, 2019 10:19 am

** 11-Oct-2019 World View: ISIS prisoner hyperbole
David Horn wrote:> "You know, there is a lot of sunlight between withdrawing in an
> organized fashion, with all ones allies onboard, and this. What
> about the 1,000 hardcore ISIS fighters who will undoubtedly
> vaporize from the scene? No thought!

> At the very least, the Kurds deserved a few weeks advance notice
> to make real plans and execute on them. Telling people to piss
> off starting tomorrow is criminal, when they are going to
> die."


There's a lot of hyperbole going on. The Kurds have been expecting
this for a year, and they say they're well prepared for it. And there
are reports that the Turks are experiencing greater resistance than
they had expected.

As for "No thought!", the ISIS prisoner problem has been thought about
from the beginning. They're being used as pawns in the negotiations.
The Kurds can't just set them free, since the first thing they'll do
when they're free is beat, rape, kill and dismember as many Kurds as
they can. The Turks can't allow that, since after killing all the
Kurds they can, they'll cross into Turkey and start laying IEDs. The
Russians can't allow it either, because a lot of them come from
Russia's Caucasus region, and they'll go back. Same for the British,
French, Germans and Belgians. So the ISIS prisoners are just part of
a grand game.

Sorry. I just can't get excited about withdrawing 50 soldiers from
observation posts.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:35 pm

** 11-Oct-2019 World View: Trump says US-China trade deal is for the world

A couple of hours ago in the Oval Office, Donald Trump announced a
"phase one" trade deal with China.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-chin ... e-updates/

During his meeting, he said some interesting things that probably
won't appear in the print media:

"This is more important than interest rates. This has
to do with world peace. This has to do with getting along. This
has to do with the rest of the world. This isn't just a deal on
trade. This has to do with a lot of to do with a lot of friction,
a lot of bad things that are happening in the world. So this is
far more important than the Federal Reserve and interest rates.

But the Federal Reserve should just cut interest rates,
absolutely. ...

I think that we're gonna have a deal that's a great deal, that's
beyond tariffs. this is a very important deal for China very
important deal for the world, very important deal fo the United
States. Beyond tariffs.

I really mean that. I really feel that ... world peace ... You
know there was a lot of friction between the United States and
China and now it's a lovefest. That's good thing. that's good
for China, and it's good for us, and it's good for the world.

The Vice Premier said the same thing. And he said it better than
anybody could have said it. He said this is a good thing for the
world. He didn't say China or US. He said this is a good thing
for the world, and he's absolutely right."


As I've described in the past, it was the imposition of tariffs that
led Japan to bomb Pearl Harbor in 1941. Trump is undoubtedly aware
of that comparison, and his remarks address it.

Goose
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Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:14 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Goose » Fri Oct 11, 2019 9:32 pm

Turkey/Syria: Done a little looking at the Kurds. Sweethearts they are not. The are strictly tribal and would as soon off another Kurd from another tribe as anyone else. That said they have been at war in some form or another with everybody in the neighborhood for all of recorded time. Fact is that there enough of them for them to have formed a country even now; but they are tribal and that precludes anything but war hot or cold and terrorist action. They are a non-state actor who will fight for any one who will pay them. I now suspect that they tried a money play with PDJT. Bad move on someone who comes out of the NYC RE market.

I would say that I feel sorry for any individual who lives in that neighborhood and is subject to what happens there. But I have no sympathy for the actors - Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia or Kurds or Isis or any other group who seeks to play the hard game. Russia is on the spot if they do not support Assad he may seek to kick them out of their bases in Syria. If they get too frisky Turkey could close the strait to the Med. Mobile anti-ship missiles are the latest item in the fall weapons catalogs. Have them in time for Xmas. Besides Europe could use another million refugees with a bunch of Isis mixed in for a little spice.

Question since 1800 how many years have been without a war (or lately "police action") I do not have the answer but would bet very few. On that could it not be that war is normal. Another observation global warming is welcome as most of North America would be under ice without it.

zzazz

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby zzazz » Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:21 am

During his meeting, he said some interesting things that probably
won't appear in the print media:

"This is more important than interest rates. This has
to do with world peace. This has to do with getting along. This
has to do with the rest of the world. This isn't just a deal on
trade. This has to do with a lot of to do with a lot of friction,
a lot of bad things that are happening in the world. So this is
far more important than the Federal Reserve and interest rates.

But the Federal Reserve should just cut interest rates,
absolutely. ...

I think that we're gonna have a deal that's a great deal, that's
beyond tariffs. this is a very important deal for China very
important deal for the world, very important deal fo the United
States. Beyond tariffs.

I really mean that. I really feel that ... world peace ... You
know there was a lot of friction between the United States and
China and now it's a lovefest. That's good thing. that's good
for China, and it's good for us, and it's good for the world.

The Vice Premier said the same thing. And he said it better than
anybody could have said it. He said this is a good thing for the
world. He didn't say China or US. He said this is a good thing
for the world, and he's absolutely right."


As I've described in the past, it was the imposition of tariffs that
led Japan to bomb Pearl Harbor in 1941. Trump is undoubtedly aware
of that comparison, and his remarks address it.


what a bumbling nothing word salid!
I don't know what flavor cool-aid Trump served you, but it has rotted your mind.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sat Oct 12, 2019 11:34 am

** 12-Oct-2019 Word Salid

zzazz wrote:> what a bumbling nothing word salid!
> I don't know what flavor cool-aid Trump served you, but it has
> rotted your mind.


Perhaps you could provide us a link to a video of an impromptu press
conference that you've given, so we can learn from you and see how
a word "salid" should be done.

John
Posts: 8644
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sat Oct 12, 2019 11:35 am

** 12-Oct-2019 World View: Russia-Turkey war?

Goose wrote:> Turkey/Syria: Done a little looking at the Kurds. Sweethearts they
> are not. The are strictly tribal and would as soon off another
> Kurd from another tribe as anyone else. That said they have been
> at war in some form or another with everybody in the neighborhood
> for all of recorded time. Fact is that there enough of them for
> them to have formed a country even now; but they are tribal and
> that precludes anything but war hot or cold and terrorist action.
> They are a non-state actor who will fight for any one who will pay
> them. I now suspect that they tried a money play with PDJT. Bad
> move on someone who comes out of the NYC RE market.

> I would say that I feel sorry for any individual who lives in that
> neighborhood and is subject to what happens there. But I have no
> sympathy for the actors - Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia or
> Kurds or Isis or any other group who seeks to play the hard game.
> Russia is on the spot if they do not support Assad he may seek to
> kick them out of their bases in Syria. If they get too frisky
> Turkey could close the strait to the Med. Mobile anti-ship
> missiles are the latest item in the fall weapons catalogs. Have
> them in time for Xmas. Besides Europe could use another million
> refugees with a bunch of Isis mixed in for a little spice.

> Question since 1800 how many years have been without a war (or
> lately "police action") I do not have the answer but would bet
> very few. On that could it not be that war is normal. Another
> observation global warming is welcome as most of North America
> would be under ice without it.


Turkey's invasion of Syria appears to be a lot more "exuberant" than
analysts had expected, suggesting that there's more going on than a
simple action to create a buffer zone, to protect Turkey from PKK
"terrorists."

Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and so the civil war should
have fizzled quickly in 2011. But it was propelled by the sociopathic
monster Bashar al-Assad, who pursued the war by targeting political
enemies, innocent women and children in markets, schools and
hospitals, using barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas.

Even so, it's been clear from the beginning that the Syrian people
themselves did not want to fight. By 2015, al-Assad himself announced
publicly that he was going to lose the war, and he begged for help,
which he received from Russia, in return for establishing two Russian
military bases, Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase).

So today, here's a (partial) list of all the groups fighting
in Syria:
Syria's armed forces, Russia's armed forces,
Iran, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah,
ISIS (Islamic State, Daesh),
HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front),
JFS (Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria),
Turkey's armed forces, SNA (Syrian National Army),
United States armed forces and coalition forces,
YPG (People's Protection Units), PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party)
SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces).

Most of these are small groups formed on an ad-hoc basis for a
specific purpose.

But there are six national armies actively fighting: Syria, Russia,
Turkey, Iran, Lebanon-Hezbollah, United States.

Of these six, Syria, Iran, and Lebanon-Hezbollah are countries in
generational Awakening eras, with little will to fight an expanding
war.

Two of them, Turkey and Russia, are in generational Crisis eras.
These two countries are historic enemies, and have fought many
generational crisis wars with each other. One of those was the
Crimean War of the 1850s, which was disastrous for both sides, but
feelings from the Crimean war have been revived in recent years
because of Russia's illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea, and
expulsion of the Tatars, a Turkic ethnic group. And there's also
tension over the Bosphorus, which is controlled by Turkey, but is
heavily used by Russia (and other nations) as the connection between
the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea. And of course, tensions were
extremely high after Turkey "accidentally" shot down a Russian
warplane in November, 2015.

Turkey and Russia know how strong their mutual xenophobia has become,
and they're both aware that a small conflict could lead to a major
war, which neither side wants. So Turkey and Russia have been making
Herculean efforts, through the "Astana process," to stay out of each
other's way, to prevent an action that could lead to a major war.

So Russia has been fully engaged in supporting al-Assad's genocide and
ethnic cleansing of his Arab Sunni political enemies, including Turkic
groups such as Turkmens. But Turkey has let Russia and al-Assad have
their way, even including chlorine and Sarin gas, and has not
interfered, having agreed to the farcical "de-escalation zones" in the
"Astana process."

Al-Assad and Russia have used the de-escalation zone agreement to
conduct full-scale genocidal war on all the people in every
de-escalation zone except one.

The remaining de-escalation zone is Idlib, in northwest Syria, on
Turkey's border. Al-Assad would like to go in an exterminate all
three million Arab Sunnis living in Idlib, including women and
children, all of whom are "terrorists" according to al-Assad, and
Russia would like to help him, but everyone knows that would be
opposed militarily by Turkey, and could lead to a Russia-Turkey war.

Returning now to northeast Syria, we have the Kurds, who want to form
their own secessionist state of Rojava on the border with Turkey.
Thanks to their US-backed fight against ISIS, the Kurds now have
control of a large part of Syria, including the planned state of
Rojava, and gaining control of that land was a major part of their
motivation to fight ISIS. Now the Kurds have Rojava almost in their
grasp, but the thought of Rojava on Turkey's border makes the Turks'
blood run cold, as terrorist attacks in Turkey would certainly be
launched from Rojava. So Turkey has invaded Syria to set up a buffer
zone, and destroy the Rojava dream once and for all.

So the question now is how "exuberant" Turkey's invasion will continue
to be. Will they quickly create a buffer zone with minimal civilian
casualties, or will they adopt harsher crisis era behaviors, such as
genocide and ethnic cleansing? The Russians want to protect the
Kurds, but they will be reluctant to intervene, for fear of a larger
Russia-Turkey war.

So we have possible Russia-Turkey wars in both northwest and northeast
Syria. Both countries want to avoid such a war, but the two regions
are only a few hundred miles apart, and if things get complicated,
then the northeast and northwest may interact and lead to a
Russia-Turkey war anyway.

There is, of course, one more international army in a generational
Crisis -- the United States. There are lots of people in Washington
calling on the US army to intervene between Turkey and the Kurds, but
that could easily lead to a Turkey-US war, which neither side wants.

Russia's sleazy foreign minister Andrei Lavrov, who never tells the
truth except by accident, this week has been blaming the United
States, and has been goading the United States to intervene to stop
Turkey. On other occasions, Lavrov has lectured the US that it's
illegal for the US to be in Syria at all. But now, when Russia wants
its dirty work to be done by the US, suddenly the US is welcome in
Syria. Quelle surprise!


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