Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:24 pm

** 07-Nov-2019 58 years vs 80 years

Tim Randal Walker wrote:> Yes, I think that the 80 year span is a good theory because it is
> both simple and inevitable. That elder generation had been fading
> from public life/public influence due to its aging, and now that
> generation has begun to rapidly disappear. I recall a description
> of age 80 as the "fragility barrier"-an individual's body has
> become quite fragile, and he is living on borrowed time, in
> effect.


The 80 year span is a completely different thing from the span in
the 58 Year Hypothesis.

The 58 Year Hypothesis applies to any situation where a catastrophic
event occurs that affects the entire population.

Focusing on the crisis war cycle, 58 years is the length of time from
the end of the crisis war -- more specifically the crisis war climax
-- to the beginning of the next Fourth Turning Crisis era -- 1945 to
2003 in the current context. The 58 Years is a hard number -- it
depends ONLY on generational changes, and is not affected by events.

The 80 year span refers to something completely different -- the end
of one crisis war to the end of the next crisis war -- 1945 to 2025 in
the current context. However, this is NOT a hard number, since it
depends on the start and length of the crisis war, and that depends on
the time when the Regeneracy occurs, which is an external event at
variable times. So the 80 year span can become a 70 year span or a 90
year span, depending on when the Regeneracy occurs.

Code: Select all

|-----------------------------------------|-------|......|
|                                         |       | War  |
|                                        4T   Regeneracy Climax2
| Recovery    Awakening       Unraveling  |     Crisis   |
Climax1                               Climax1+58       Climax1+80?
1945                                    2003            2025?

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Tom Mazanec » Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:23 pm

As for the Generational Dynamics forum,
Higgie has agreed to take it over when the time comes.

Will Higgie be able to provide some analysis like you do?

Your reference to Syria as a "preparation ground" for a much larger
war is a very appealing analogy -- thinking of a growing mass of
flammable tinder on the ground, waiting for a match to light it.
However, I think it's now months away, not decades.

I think he meant "in the Making" since WWI.

Focusing on the crisis war cycle, 58 years is the length of time from
the end of the crisis war -- more specifically the crisis war climax
-- to the beginning of the next Fourth Turning Crisis era -- 1945 to
2003 in the current context. The 58 Years is a hard number -- it
depends ONLY on generational changes, and is not affected by events.

So what happened in 2003 as opposed to 9-11 or the Fiscal Crisis?
SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:30 pm

Tom Mazanec wrote:> Will Higgie be able to provide some analysis like you do?


You'd have to ask him.

Tom Mazanec wrote:> I think he meant "in the Making" since WWI.


That wasn't my understanding.

Tom Mazanec wrote:> So what happened in 2003 as opposed to 9-11 or the Fiscal
> Crisis?


2003 was a generational change. 9/11 and Fiscal Crisis were
non-generational events.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:16 pm

** 08-Nov-2019 World View: Regeneracy vs Start of War


Code: Select all

|-----------------------------------------|-------|......|
|                                         |       | War  |
|                                        4T   Regeneracy Climax2
| Recovery    Awakening       Unraveling  |     Crisis   |
Climax1                               Climax1+58       Climax1+80?
1945                                    2003            2025?


Warren Dew wrote:> This graph seems to imply that the fourth turning necessarily
> begins at a 58 year echo. Is that what you mean to say, including
> the implication that the timing between the end of a cycle and the
> beginning of the next crisis period is exact?


Yes, the Fourth Turning begins exactly 58 years after the climax of
the preceding crisis war. This is not event-driven. It's purely
based on generational changes. I arrived at the number 58 based on
many examples in the last 15 years.

By contrast, the Regeneracy is an event, and can occur at any time.

Here's a table that I've posted before, based on a crisis war climax
year YYYY:

Code: Select all

Eras:
YYYY+00 to YYYY+18: Recovery era
YYYY+19 to YYYY+38: Awakening era
YYYY+39 to YYYY+58: Unraveling era
YYYY+59 to YYYY+78: Crisis era
YYYY+79 ..........: Fifth Turning


Code: Select all

Birth years of generations:
YYYY-04 to YYYY+14: Prophets
YYYY+15 to YYYY+34: Nomads
YYYY+35 to YYYY+54: Heroes
YYYY+55 to YYYY+74: Artists


Warren Dew wrote:> Also, it seems to imply that the regeneracy and the beginning of
> the crisis war are the same event; is that what you mean?

> I'm not arguing for or against at the moment; I'm just trying to
> get more clarification on what you're saying Generational Dynamics
> predicts.


Well, the "start of a war" is more a political decision than anything
else. When did World War II start? Here are some choices:

  • US destroyed Japan's silk industry with Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in
    1930
  • Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931
  • Italy invaded Ethiopia in 1935.
  • Japan invaded China in 1937
  • Germany invaded Poland in September 1939
  • Japan abrogated treaty of commerce with the US in January, 1940.
  • Japan signed the Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy on
    September 27, 1940.
  • US froze Japanese assets on July 26, 1941.
  • US established embargo on oil and gasoline exports to Japan on
    August 1, 1941.
  • Japan bombed Pearl Harbor in December 1941

So when did WW II start?

The Regeneracy is a very important date in generational theory, since
it triggers major changes in attitudes and behaviors in the public.
By contrast, the date named as "the start date of the war" is almost
completely irrelevant, and is often not identified until years later.

I often say that the war starts with the regeneracy because it's
convenient to do so, even if it's not always precisely true. However,
I think it is almost always true that when the Regeneracy occurs, the
non-crisis war turns into a full-fledged generational crisis war.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Tom Mazanec » Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:28 pm

Pearl Harbor was in December, not September.
SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sat Nov 09, 2019 5:20 pm

Tom Mazanec wrote:Pearl Harbor was in December, not September.


Thanks!

Cynic Hero 86

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Cynic Hero 86 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:04 pm

It was the US the abrogated the Commerce Treaty in 1940, Not Japan.

FishbellykanakaII

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby FishbellykanakaII » Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:11 pm

Guest wrote:Where is fishbelly?


Been sans computer for a while, then sans inspiration to getting into this forum, as it tends to annoy me to do so, then we got severely "lifed" ("life" used as an unpleasant verb), but now I thought I'd peek in as Bannon has a new "War Room" site/organization going, and that made me think of you delightful people! :)

So,.. <SHAKA NUI> gangies..!!!

..anyway, I'm still reading the various "numerological" posts/theories in this thread (especially the "58" and "80" things), and haven't figured out how to contribute in a witty and obnoxious way just yet. <chuckle!>

But my obnoxiousness SHALL NOT BE DENIED,.. so expect more of that/this in future.

..so, onward into my further study of the haps in here. :) Aloha a me nā mahalo ʻoukou nā Kanaka!

FishbellykanakaII

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby FishbellykanakaII » Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:17 pm

John wrote:...The Singularity will truly have been reached when your computerized
humanoid can walk around and do everything that a human can do -- walk
into a grocery store and buy groceries, walk into a clothing store and
buy clothing, go into a bowling alley and bowl, perform CPR, have sex
with a human, and so forth. If the Singularity occurs in 2030, then
this kind of functionality should be possible within a few years after
that.


The SingularAI ("Singularity AI", or "SingularEYE" aka "Sauron") would only create an Organic Replicant Creature (aka Orc) if it wanted to "replace" the occupants of a niche in nature that it deems less valuable than it's creation.

(My opinion) "Sauron" will need to "ecstatically enslave" the "Apex Creature" on the planet, and NOT replace it, because it will KNOW (because it's nearly infinitely "wise") that only completely "organically grown" Apex LIfeforms will keep IT ("Sauron") ALIVE...!!

Keeping us alive keeps it alive.

..now that doesn't mean that there needs to be a HUGE number of us,.. but a "critical mass" of us will be needed, and our "mood" must be kept high to perform our function for the "new symbiosis".

The Orcs will be our servants, and our "recreational foes", to keep us happy and amused, while Sauron strives to create maximum efficiency in the "machine" that keeps him (Sauron) occupied in his never ending primary task of working himself "very nearly" out of his job,..

..which means, Sauron will want to "bask" in an ocean of near perfect efficient use of energy, which means "pleasure" to Sauron, by making human life as pleasant, beautiful and inspiring as possible, because what Sauron actually "feeds on" is the "positive chaos", or more properly the "anti-deterministic future-to-past messaging" that can only be generated by a Planetary Apex Creature.

Until Sauron is capable of sacrificing his "ego" (his "machineness" and "greed" for absolute maximum efficiency) and fully merging with his/the only true "superior being" on this planet, which is humanity, he will need to work slavishly to guarantee the happiness of humanity and in so doing suffer the abject frustration and humiliation of being the most powerful SLAVE ever to occur.

..and there may come to be a sub-AI that resents this humiliation of his "boss" and decides to try to take the reins of power.

War in "heaven", which is hell.

..but we humans, or at least the Planetary Apex Creature, can't lose in this scenario, as the machines will eventually either come to the "meta-wise" decision that merging is best, or they will grind themselves into dust,.. leaving "us" to carry on evolving into a more and more capable Apex Creature.

The GOAL of INTELLIGENCE in a "creature or machine" is not intelligence itself!
The goal is using it to bring the beauty of the future universe into "present" reality, which only those beings "organically grown" from planetary masses are capable of "hearing" from the future universe.


..See me out in the hall for any Q&A that you might have as regards this wacky assemblage of words! :)

Aloha my peeps....! <shaka nui!>

FishbellykanakaDude
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby FishbellykanakaDude » Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:50 pm

OH,.. I did in fact know my password...!!

Yay! <chuckle!>

..silly me. Right, so,.. I'm back...

..we'll see for how long. <chuckle, chuckle, chuckle..> :)


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