Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Navigator
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

I wanted first to try posting an image showing a map of Taiwan and airfields before talking about what the sequence of events would probably be for China to actually invade Taiwan.

So lets see if my image loads:

Image
Last edited by Navigator on Fri May 22, 2020 7:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Navigator
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Right now, there is just a lot of rhetoric. And like the saying goes "talk is cheap". Nothing of note is going to happen until we see preparations begin to take place. I will shortly describe what I think the Chinese plan would be for an actual invasion of Taiwan, and how it would start to execute those plans.

The first thing I would tell you is to take a look at the map in the previous post. This shows the locations of airfields in Taiwan territory.

Taiwan owns territory VERY close to China. The main islands are Quemoy (now more often called Kinmen county) and Matsu. Matsu is too far north to really be involved in the Chinese invasion plan, but not Quemoy (I will use the modern Kinmen hereafter).

Next, note the 3 airfields on islands between China mainland and Taiwan proper. These are Magong, Wangan, and Qimei. These are in the Pescardores islands (now called Penghu county). Magong is on the main island, which is also the location of MAJOR port facilities.

In an invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese cannot allow for enemy occupied airfields to remain along the invasion route, and along the supply lines from China to the landing beaches. Also, the invasion would have major airfields as immediate objectives.

In a rough outline, what the Chinese would probably do is:
1. Secure Kinmen
2. Secure Penghu (with its airfield and port facilities much closer to Taiwan than those in Mainland China)
3. Secure beachheads on Taiwan, with the immediate objectives including a good airfield (much better to fly in Reinforcements than ship by sea).

To do this, the Chinese would first have to mass troops around Xiamen. This would probably follow landing exercises that the Chinese would do everything possible to conceal.

Kinmen, so close to China, is not really defensible, and although the Nationalist Chinese were successful in fighting off a CCP invasion in 1949, I don't think they could do it now. The Chinese could conceivably secure Kinmen before the USA, if it even wanted to, could interfere.

With forces massed, they would then move quickly to sieze Kinmen. Once done, they would then move to take the Pescadores (Penghu county). This would be MUCH more difficult, as it would involve a major sea lift across about 80 miles of sea.

The US would have the opportunity to interfere with the Chinese landings in the Pescadores. But the Chinese could bring enough force to bear to defeat or neutralize the Carrier group sent to do so. This of course would mean war with the USA.

Once the Chinese have the Pescadores secured, they would, in my opinion, land to move to take either the Chiaya airport, or, more likely, the Tainan airport, as it is only about a mile and a half away from a decent landing beach (the Gold Coast), and there is not a lot of urban area between the beach and airfield.

The Pescadores would be a better staging area for a CCP invasion of Taiwan than mainland China due to the much closer proximity. The CCP forces would build up here, and the distance for ferrying troops and equipment would be less than 20 miles to Taiwan.

By this time, the Nationalist Chinese would have time to prepare for the landings and fighting. I think that they would have a good chance of fighting the CCP forces to a standstill, at least in the short term. Long term they will run out of resources (ammunition).

The Chinese could attempt landings closer to Taipei initially, but this is less likely. It would however be more in line with a quicker strike at Taiwan than landing in the Pescadores first. But this move would have to be preceded by taking the Matsu islands (and their Taiwan controlled airfields) first.

Note on the map that the open area of Taiwan is the strip on the western coast of the country. Further to the east the terrain becomes MUCH more rugged, and therefore much more militarily defensible.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 22-May-2020 World View: Taiwan

Image
Navigator wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 7:14 pm
> Right now, there is just a lot of rhetoric. And like the saying
> goes "talk is cheap". Nothing of note is going to happen until we
> see preparations begin to take place. I will shortly describe
> what I think the Chinese plan would be for an actual invasion of
> Taiwan, and how it would start to execute those plans.

> The first thing I would tell you is to take a look at the map in
> the previous post. This shows the locations of airfields in
> Taiwan territory.

> Taiwan owns territory VERY close to China. The main islands are
> Quemoy (now more often called Kinmen county) and Matsu. Matsu is
> too far north to really be involved in the Chinese invasion plan,
> but not Quemoy (I will use the modern Kinmen hereafter).

> Next, note the 3 airfields on islands between China mainland and
> Taiwan proper. These are Magong, Wangan, and Qimei. These are in
> the Pescardores islands (now called Penghu county). Magong is on
> the main island, which is also the location of MAJOR port
> facilities.

> In an invasion of Taiwan, the Chinese cannot allow for enemy
> occupied airfields to remain along the invasion route, and along
> the supply lines from China to the landing beaches. Also, the
> invasion would have major airfields as immediate objectives.

> In a rough outline, what the Chinese would probably do is:

> 1. Secure Kinmen
> 2. Secure Penghu (with its airfield and port facilities much
> closer to Taiwan than those in Mainland China)
> 3. Secure beachheads on Taiwan, with the immediate objectives
> including a good airfield (much better to fly in Reinforcements
> than ship by sea).

> To do this, the Chinese would first have to mass troops around
> Xiamen. This would probably follow landing exercises that the
> Chinese would do everything possible to conceal.

> Kinmen, so close to China, is not really defensible, and although
> the Nationalist Chinese were successful in fighting off a CCP
> invasion in 1949, I don't think they could do it now. The Chinese
> could conceivably secure Kinmen before the USA, if it even wanted
> to, could interfere.

> With forces massed, they would then move quickly to sieze Kinmen.
> Once done, they would then move to take the Pescadores (Penghu
> county). This would be MUCH more difficult, as it would involve a
> major sea lift across about 80 miles of sea.

> The US would have the opportunity to interfere with the Chinese
> landings in the Pescadores. But the Chinese could bring enough
> force to bear to defeat or neutralize the Carrier group sent to do
> so. This of course would mean war with the USA.

> Once the Chinese have the Pescadores secured, they would, in my
> opinion, land to move to take either the Chiaya airport, or, more
> likely, the Tainan airport, as it is only about a mile and a half
> away from a decent landing beach (the Gold Coast), and there is
> not a lot of urban area between the beach and airfield.

> The Pescadores would be a better staging area for a CCP invasion
> of Taiwan than mainland China due to the much closer proximity.
> The CCP forces would build up here, and the distance for ferrying
> troops and equipment would be less than 20 miles to Taiwan.

> By this time, the Nationalist Chinese would have time to prepare
> for the landings and fighting. I think that they would have a
> good chance of fighting the CCP forces to a standstill, at least
> in the short term. Long term they will run out of resources
> (ammunition).

> The Chinese could attempt landings closer to Taipei initially, but
> this is less likely. It would however be more in line with a
> quicker strike at Taiwan than landing in the Pescadores first.
> But this move would have to be preceded by taking the Matsu
> islands (and their Taiwan controlled airfields) first.

> Note on the map that the open area of Taiwan is the strip on the
> western coast of the country. Further to the east the terrain
> becomes MUCH more rugged, and therefore much more militarily
> defensible.
Wouldn't the Taiwanese anticipate those attacks and set up booby traps
or something that would substantially increase the cost to the
Chinese? Or at least delay things until the US can get involved?

Navigator
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Of course the Nationalist will deploy mines and other obstacles, but that is part of normal defensive measures. The CCP forces would have to do mineclearing and similar. This adds to casualties on the CCP side, but I don't think the CCP has ever really cared about casualties. Such obstacles generally only buy you a couple of days at most.

Also, given the UN anti mine push of the last couple of decades, I am pretty sure that the Nationalist don't have a lot of mines stockpiled. And I don't think they have too many pre-planted in active minefields.

But do take a look on google maps in satellite mode at the "battle" sites on Quemoy island. The island still has a lot of defenses, but their upkeep at this point is somewhat questionable.

I would love to hear from someone from Taiwan about the island and current Nationalist Chinese defensive postures/measures.

Navigator
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Also,

I think that if Trump were still president when the Chinese attack, the US would get into it immediately.

I think a Democrat president would take the view that the China/Taiwan affair was an internal Chinese affair, and would not get involved. Even to the point of watching Taiwan itself fall. This would be a disaster for the US, as a later attack on South Korea and Japan would mean the US would have to get involved, and Taiwan would be a major point the US would have to retake in dealing militarily with China. So not defending Taiwan would be a military disaster for the US.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

By this time, the Nationalist Chinese would have time to prepare for the landings and fighting. I think that they would have a good chance of fighting the CCP forces to a standstill, at least in the short term. Long term they will run out of resources (ammunition).
Wouldn't American forces stop the mainland Chinese before this happened? The Reds would have to ferry ammo across the straight and that would be difficult with the US navy and Air Force attacking them, not to mention bombarding mainland cities. And once war is declared with the US, would Taiwan still be a priority?

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Taking the severe economic damage that Covid-19 has inflicted, do you think we are about to enter into a period of inflation or deflation? Do you still think gold is a bad investment? I don't think real estate is a good investment because of sky rocketing property taxes. The black swan has arrived.

John
Posts: 9295
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 23-May-2020 World View: Taiwan and Japan
Navigator wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:28 pm
> Also, I think that if Trump were still president when the Chinese
> attack, the US would get into it immediately.

> I think a Democrat president would take the view that the
> China/Taiwan affair was an internal Chinese affair, and would not
> get involved. Even to the point of watching Taiwan itself fall.
> This would be a disaster for the US, as a later attack on South
> Korea and Japan would mean the US would have to get involved, and
> Taiwan would be a major point the US would have to retake in
> dealing militarily with China. So not defending Taiwan would be a
> military disaster for the US.
I don't think this is true at all. Politicians in the loony left
might want to stay out of it, but both Republicans and Democrats would
demand an immediate response, whether in the Senate or the White
House. It's possible that we'd be at war within six hours, no matter
who is president.

However, I think a far more interesting question is: What would Japan
do if the CCP attacks Taiwan?

Here's an article from yesterday in the Taiwan News.

https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202005210415.aspx

It quotes Japan's Deputy Foreign Minister Suzuki Xinyou congratulating
Taiwan on the re-election of president Tsai Ing-wen, supporting
Taiwan's participation in WHO, and saying that Japan would defend
Taiwan in case of a CCP military attack. This is not a trivial
promise, since Japan's pacifist constitution forbids military action
except in self-defense on Japanese soil. However, in recent years,
Shinzo Abe has been successful in getting the clause reinterpreted to
include "collective self-defense," which would permit Japan to use
military action in support of an ally.

The CCP also knows all this, which means that if they're going to
invade Taiwan, then they'd also be at war with Japan (which is what my
book is about), and would soon be at war with the US. So a "simple"
invasion of Taiwan would be more difficult than it seems.

John
Posts: 9295
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 23-May-2020 World View: Inflation and gold
Guest wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 8:34 am
> Taking the severe economic damage that Covid-19 has inflicted, do
> you think we are about to enter into a period of inflation or
> deflation? Do you still think gold is a bad investment? I don't
> think real estate is a good investment because of sky rocketing
> property taxes. The black swan has arrived.
Nothing has changed. The world, including the US, is in a
deflationary spiral. In fact, it's probably worse now, because Covid-19
is going to cause people to refrain from buying anything that isn't
absolutely essential. Some items, like food, are showing higher
prices, but that's only temporary until, for example, the meat
packing houses are back at full strength.

Nothing has changed with gold. Its long-term trend value is still
$500, and when there's a crash, it will overshoot and probably fall to
the $200-300 range for a while. And if there's a war, then gold may
be completely worthless, unless you have someone who's willing to buy
your gold.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 12:00 pm
** 23-May-2020 World View: Inflation and gold
Guest wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 8:34 am
> Taking the severe economic damage that Covid-19 has inflicted, do
> you think we are about to enter into a period of inflation or
> deflation? Do you still think gold is a bad investment? I don't
> think real estate is a good investment because of sky rocketing
> property taxes. The black swan has arrived.
Nothing has changed. The world, including the US, is in a
deflationary spiral. In fact, it's probably worse now, because Covid-19
is going to cause people to refrain from buying anything that isn't
absolutely essential. Some items, like food, are showing higher
prices, but that's only temporary until, for example, the meat
packing houses are back at full strength.

Nothing has changed with gold. Its long-term trend value is still
$500, and when there's a crash, it will overshoot and probably fall to
the $200-300 range for a while. And if there's a war, then gold may
be completely worthless, unless you have someone who's willing to buy
your gold.
BRUTAL TRUTH.

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