Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 03-Oct-2020 World View: Collapsing democracies
Cool Breeze wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:14 pm
> John, do you have a view on "democracies" always collapsing when
> the corrupted elite continue to give away the productive capacity
> of the nation (to the non producers who vote for such)? It seems
> even the ancient Greeks were well aware of this and that's why
> they were for republics, but as we see in America laws are changed
> so that the elites can control and manipulate through voting for
> all, expanding government, etc.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these kinds of
collapses tend to occur during generational Crisis eras.

During the Recovery Era (First Turning) following a crisis war,
traumatized survivors implement institutions and laws to prevent a
recurrence, and this usually includes strong restrictions against
corruption and debt. As the decades go by, these restrictions are
relaxed, and corruption and debt increase. Finally, during the next
Crisis era, the debts come due and can't be repaid because of the
corruption, and there's a new crisis -- which may result in a collapse
of the society.

That's the most common pattern for an entire society to collapse.
It's possible to view an Awakening climax as a kind of "partial
collapse" (think of the Weimar Republic or the resignation of Richard
Nixon or "bloodless coup" or "velvet revolution"), but usually this is
a mid-course correction, rather than a total collapse.

DaKardii
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

John wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:19 am
What I think you're referring to is theoretical discussions of how timelines merge over a period of centuries, and how most timelines have merged into what I call a WW I timeline and a WW II timeline.
Yes, I was referring to that.
John wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:19 am
However, these are generalizations, and each nation must be analyzed separately. For example Iran and Turkey are on the "WW I timeline," but Iran's crisis war climaxed in 1909, and Turkey's in 1922.

The other point is that countries on the WW I timeline had their crisis wars early enough so that their next crisis war also occurred in the 20th century. Examples are Iran's 1979 revolution, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan war in the 1990s. However, Turkey and Russia are on the "WW I timeline," but they have not yet had another crisis war, and are overdue for one.
I take back what I said about Russia being in an Awakening era. You're correct about both Turkey and Russia being in crisis eras.

I previously thought the collapse of the USSR and the general instability of the Yeltsin era was enough to constitute a crisis era climax despite the fact that most of the violence was localized and never merged into a larger general war where there were only two significant sides. And that Russia entered a High era with the election of Putin in 2000 and into a Awakening era with the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

But now that I think about it, the collapse of the USSR cannot be considered the beginning of a crisis war, but rather the beginning of a crisis era. Because unlike during the Russian Civil War (the previous time the government collapsed and Russia lost much of its territory), the old government did not attempt to fight back, nor did the new government have the will to try to regain old Soviet territory (with the sole exception of the Chechen conflict).This behavior much more closely resembles that of Germany in the immediate aftermath of WWI. In that case, Germany didn't even try to regain its old territory until Hitler came to power.

Meanwhile, whether Putin is the Hitler equivalent when comparing 1990s Russia to 1910s Germany is questionable. Putin has annexed old Soviet territory (Crimea), but that was six years ago, and another fourteen years after he first came to power. He doesn't make reclaiming territory a major theme of his politics either. To me, he seems to be much more interested in re-establishing Russian military might and projecting it in places outside the old USSR, than actually reclaiming old Soviet territory.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these kinds of
collapses tend to occur during generational Crisis eras.
What collapses do you foresee in this Crisis Era?
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

Tom Mazanec wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:27 am
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these kinds of
collapses tend to occur during generational Crisis eras.
What collapses do you foresee in this Crisis Era?
See Navigator's book.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 04-Oct-2020 World View: Understanding covid

"I learned a lot about covid and I understand it." -- Donald Trump

That's like getting laid and saying you understand women.

utahbob
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by utahbob »

John, it looks like things maybe getting interesting on the Chinese/Russian border:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3l6Cf46fAs

I used to tell my troops when things get interesting, you got to have a sense of humor. So, totally unrelated to anything on this forum: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CsrjNbTNZU

Be safe!

utahbob
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by utahbob »

A friend passed this along to me with the phrase "what do you get when you piss everybody off in your neighborhood?" https://www.mod.go.jp/msdf/en/release/2 ... 925-02.pdf

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

https://themarket.ch/interview/kevin-ru ... rs-ld.2740
Few Western observers know China better than The Honorable Kevin Rudd. As a young diplomat, the Australian, who speaks fluent Mandarin, was stationed in Beijing in the 1980s. As Australia's Prime Minister and then Foreign Minister from 2007 to 2012, he led his country through the delicate tension between its most important alliance partner (the USA) and its largest trading partner (China).

Today Mr. Rudd is President of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York. In an in-depth conversation via Zoom, he explains why a fundamental competition has begun between the two great powers. He would not rule out a hot war: «We know from history that it is easy to start a conflict, but it is bloody hard to end it», he warns.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 05-Oct-2020 World View: Russia and China
utahbob wrote:
Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:45 pm
> John, it looks like things maybe getting interesting on the
> Chinese/Russian border:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3l6Cf46fAs

> I used to tell my troops when things get interesting, you got to
> have a sense of humor. So, totally unrelated to anything on this
> forum: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CsrjNbTNZU

> Be safe!
Your first video gave me a very strange feeling.

These days, in my Methuselean Boomerdom, I always feel like a Martian
visiting earth. I watch everything, I can see exactly what's going
on, and I can see where everything is headed. But being a Martian, I
don't feel like I have any emotional connection to it anymore, since
the Earthlings just say one idiotic, delusional thing after another,
and they do one thing after another to make things worse. One of the
most delusional things I hear all time time is that Russia is a danger
to America and China is not. Being a Martian, it's been clear to me
for almost 20 years that the opposite is true.

So this video was a shock to me because it described what was really
going on. In fact, it could have been a Generational Dynamics video,
if there were such a thing. Whereas the mainstream media and most
pundits (on both left and right) talk about a Russia-China alliance
against America, this video disregards the supposed alliance and talks
about things like China's attempts to annex other countries'
territories, including Russia's Vladivostok, and China's overall
contempt for Russians. These are all things that I've written about
frequently for over 15 years.

As far as I can tell, the Defense Update group that produced this
video is Israeli. That makes sense, since this video could not have
been produced by any American organization, either on the left or the
right. Americans are totally oblivious to what's going on in the
world.

As for your second video, being a Martian, Earthling Metal music
isn't to my taste.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/1 ... mp-russia/
DNI John Ratcliffe declassified documents on Tuesday revealing former CIA Director John Brennan briefed Barack Obama on Hillary Clinton’s plot to ‘stir up’ a scandal to tie Trump to Russia in order to distract from her email scandal ahead of the 2016 election.

This declassification comes after Ratcliffe released a Russian intel assessment in which he asserted that Hillary Clinton hatched the Russia hoax in order to pin the DNC ‘hacking’ on President Trump.

“In late July 2016, US intelligence agencies obtained insight into Russian intelligence analysis alleging that US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had approved a campaign plan to stir up a scandal against US Presidential candidate Donald Trump by tying him to Putin and the Russians’ hacking of the DNC. The IC does not know the accuracy of this allegation of the extent to which the Russian intelligence analysis may reflect exaggerations or fabrication,” Ratcliffe wrote to Lindsey Graham.

The Obama-Biden White House was briefed on it by then-CIA Director John Brennan.

TRENDING: Charges Filed Against Trans Elections Judge 'Erika' Bickford in Allentown, Pennsylvania -- Including Tampering with Ballots

Brennan’s handwritten notes were exclusively obtained by Fox News:

“We’re getting additional insight into Russian activities from [REDACTED],” Brennan notes read. “CITE [summarizing] alleged approved by Hillary Clinton a proposal from one of her foreign policy advisers to vilify Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by the Russian security service,” Brennan’s notes read.

The notes state “on 28 of July.” In the margin, Brennan writes “POTUS,” but the entire section of the note is redacted.

“Any evidence of collaboration between Trump campaign + Russia,” Brennan’s notes read.

The notes are heavily redacted, except in the margins, which reads: “JC,” “Denis,” and “Susan.”

https://twitter.com/BrookeSingman/statu ... 91424?s=20

Fox News reported:
EXCLUSIVE:Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe on Tuesday declassified documents that revealed former CIA Director John Brennan briefed former President Obama on Hillary Clinton’s purported “plan” to tie then-candidate Donald Trump to Russia as “a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server” ahead of the 2016 presidential election, Fox News has learned.

Ratcliffe declassified Brennan’s handwritten notes – which were taken after he briefed Obama on the intelligence the CIA received – and a CIA memo, which revealed that officials referred the matter to the FBI for potential investigative action.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence transmitted the declassified documents to the House and Senate Intelligence Committees on Tuesday afternoon.
Ratcliffe also declassified a CIA memo Brennan wrote to Peter Strzok and James Comey which revealed officials actually referred the matter to the FBI for a potential probe.

“The following information is provided for the exclusive use of your bureau for background investigative action or lead purposes as appropriate,” the CIA memo to Comey and Strzok stated.

“This memorandum contains sensitive information that could be source revealing. It should be handled with particular attention to compartmentation and need-to-know. To avoid the possible compromise of the source, any investigative action taken in response to the information below should be coordinated in advance with Chief Counterintelligence Mission Center, Legal,” the memo, which was sent to Comey and Strzok, read. “It may not be used in any legal proceeding—including FISA applications—without prior approval…”

“Per FBI verbal request, CIA provides the below examples of information the CROSSFIRE HURRICANE fusion cell has gleaned to date,” the memo continued. ““An exchange [REDACTED] discussing US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s approval of a plan concerning US presidential candidate Donald Trump and Russian hackers hampering US elections as a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server.”

https://twitter.com/BrookeSingman/statu ... 78784?s=20
In other news, MSM/Big Tech want you to forget this is happening.

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