Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 25-Mar-2021 World View: North Korean invasion of South Korea

> How likely is a North Korean attack on South Korea?

> Driving around in Seoul, Taipei, and Singapore and seeing how
> fantastic these places are really begs the question: why screw
> this up? Asia is on the top of the pile now, why destroy
> everything and be left with nothing? Isn't a lot of this just
> posturing?

> NK wants money to survive. Are they really going to nuke someone
> to get it? That would be national suicide. The North Koreans want
> to survive not perish.

North Korea is a vassal of Communist China. Kim Jong-un occasionally
throws a temper tantrum and does something the CCP doesn't like, but
basically Kim does as he's told. I consider it likely that the
CCP gave Kim the OK for Thursday's ballistic missile launches.

In my opinion, North Korea will not invade South Korea without China's
permission, and that means it will be done in coordination with
China's invasion of Taiwan or Japan or an attack on the United States.

[Guest]

** 25-Mar-2021 World View: North Korean invasion of South Korea

> How likely is a North Korean attack on South Korea?

> Driving around in Seoul, Taipei, and Singapore and seeing how
> fantastic these places are really begs the question: why screw
> this up? Asia is on the top of the pile now, why destroy
> everything and be left with nothing? Isn't a lot of this just
> posturing?

> NK wants money to survive. Are they really going to nuke someone
> to get it? That would be national suicide. The North Koreans want
> to survive not perish.

North Korea is a vassal of Communist China. Kim Jong-un occasionally
throws a temper tantrum and does something the CCP doesn't like, but
basically Kim does as he's told. I consider it likely that the
CCP gave Kim the OK for Thursday's ballistic missile launches.

In my opinion, North Korea will not invade South Korea without China's
permission, and that means it will be done in coordination with
China's invasion of Taiwan or Japan or an attack on the United States.

It seems to me that this scenario is at least a few years away. Japan and South Korea are armed to the teeth. The real question remains the quality of Chinese weapon systems and the real abilities of their generals, which is limited as they haven't fought a war since the 1970s. And the PLA faired badly against the outgunned and outnumbered Vietnamese.

[Navigator]

Interesting article on how Chinese population size is about to implode thanks to the CCP's disastrous family planning debacle.

Article says US will have more people than China by 2100 and that the Chinese population size will begin to fall off a cliff starting around 2028.

This would mean that China's one major advantage in a war goes away unless they use it now.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/co ... ina-180960

[Guest]

Interesting article on how Chinese population size is about to implode thanks to the CCP's disastrous family planning debacle.

Article says US will have more people than China by 2100 and that the Chinese population size will begin to fall off a cliff starting around 2028.

This would mean that China's one major advantage in a war goes away unless they use it now.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/co ... ina-180960

No worries, mate. The Chinese know this and will move soon.

[John]

** 26-Mar-2021 World View: David and Goliath in the Suez Canal

• David and Goliath: This lone backhoe is dredging sand, but
  it's no match for the Ever Given

Salvage experts are now projecting that it will take one to three
weeks to free the monster cargo ship Ever Given from the Suez Canal.
The ship got wedged Tuesday in a single-lane stretch of the canal,
about 3.7 miles north of the southern entrance, near the city of Suez.

The name of the ship is Ever Given. It is owned by the Japanese firm
Shoei Kisen KK. It is leased by a Taiwanese shipping company, the
Evergreen.

The blockade is holding up $10 billion of goods every day. Over 200
vessels are waiting near the canal, waiting to go through. In
addition, more than 100 ships are en route, although many of these are
now considering an alternate route, around the Cape of Good Hope at
the southern tip of Africa, adding 14 days to the trip.

Various dredgers and tugs are heading to the region to try to help
out. The US Navy is sending a team of dredging experts on Saturday.

The tide is coming in on Monday, and they hope to refloat the Ever
Given then. There's always the possibility that the Ever Given will
break up, resulting in an even greater disaster. If all else fails,
they'll have to try to remove some of the cargo, but that will require
very specialized equipment and will take weeks.

• Infographic showing how the Ever Given is wedged in the Suez Canal

--- Sources:

-- The ship stuck in the Suez Canal — the Ever Given — is still
there. Here's what we know about the mission to dislodge it
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-26/ ... /100030284
(Australian Broadcasting, 26-Mar-2021)

-- Ever Given / Maritime traffic jam grows outside blocked Suez Canal
https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2021/mar ... d-suez-ca/
(AP, 26-Mar-2021)

[Navigator]

What this really damages is trade between Europe and China (and India).

From what I understand, oil doesn't go through the Suez canal as the tankers are too big.

But everything not from the Americas to Europe goes through the canal.

The Europeans are re-imposing lockdowns. This could actually be the straw for them. Maybe the economic meltdown starts in Europe.

[Guest]

Interesting article on how Chinese population size is about to implode thanks to the CCP's disastrous family planning debacle.

Article says US will have more people than China by 2100 and that the Chinese population size will begin to fall off a cliff starting around 2028.

This would mean that China's one major advantage in a war goes away unless they use it now.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/co ... ina-180960

China flies at least 20 war planes in Taiwan airspace

A person familiar with Taiwan’s defense planning told Reuters that the Chinese military was simulating an operation against U.S. warships sailing through the Bashi Channel.

https://www.axios.com/china-incursion-w ... 43262.html

[John]

28-Mar-21 World View -- North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion

Myanmar / Burma becomes toxic and explosive

** 28-Mar-21 World View -- North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210328



Contents:
North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion
Analysis of North Korea's nuclear weapons program
Sanctions and the Denuclearization Delusion
Contrasting negotiating styles: Joe Biden vs Donald Trump
Myanmar / Burma becomes toxic and explosive


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Sea of Japan,
March of History, Tariq Rauf, IAEA, China, Xi Jinping, Uighurs,
South Africa, Iraq, Iran, India, Pakistan, Libya,
Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, Joe Biden,
Quad, Australia, India, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Myanmar, Burma, Thailand

[DaKardii]

Before and during WWII, Hugo Boss manufactured uniforms for the Hitler Youth, the SA, and the SS. It also relied on slave labor from the countries occupied by Hitler's troops.

Eighty years later, it has committed itself to relying on slave labor from the camps in Xinjiang.

https://hongkongfp.com/2021/03/27/hugo- ... rand-says/

[Tom Mazanec]

The Seventh Crisis and the Millennials
https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... nials.html

The Millennial and Gen-Z generations will suffer most from the Seventh Crisis. They need to resist it on a political, economic, and social level, but also on a philosophical and spiritual plane. To overcome it, they must do so by transforming the struggle into a personal heroic experience designed to ensure one’s personal liberty through the establishment and maintenance of Ordered Liberty.

Or they will go into the Long Dark.