You are massively overestimating China's capabilities and what a third world war would look like. A third world war in terms of war front and home front would look similar to WW2, it would be of war of soldiers vs soldiers.josa0512 wrote:John, I've been thinking about this question a lot over the past few years. As a long time Generational Dynamics Weblog reader, I took your advice to heart and recently sold my house to have my assets as liquid as possible. I was expecting the U.S. economy to begin entering an economic recession by now and for the world to become so chaotic that it began negatively affecting our economy but that hasn't happened yet. And since selling my house this past fall, I've grown tired of paying rent for a noisy apartment so I'm going to buy another house but I'll look to only stay there temporarily. My point is that, like the man in Seoul who moves out of the city too early...it's hard to get the timing just right. If you prepare prematurely, you may lack the patience to wait things out. So, instead...I've reached other conclusions.John wrote:** 6-Feb-2019 How should people prepare? How should America prepare?
I believe that I know, as much as is possible, what's going to happen
in terms of international events. Generational Dynamics has provided
a great deal of information that isn't available anywhere else.
Now I'd like to go one step further, and ask people to post their
suggestions for how to prepare for what we now know is coming.
We're headed for total war with China -- perhaps next week, perhaps in
ten years. In addition, I've posted Genertational Dynamics predictions
for many countries around the world.
How should people prepare, and how should America prepare?
I'm looking for suggestions that go beyond the obvious things like
"increase the defense budget."
On the international level, the mainstream media and many politicians
have been completely baffled by Trump's policies, and I've written
numerous articles explaining that many of Trump's policies are for
example the kind of preparations that I'm talking about now, including
the following:These are some of the things that Trump is doing to prepare America
- Withdraw troops and resources from Syria and other regions to make
them available for war with China.- Maintain forward air bases in Afghanistan (Bagram and Kandahar
International Airport)- Maintain THAAD anti-missile defenses in South Korea
- Use negotiations with Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un to slow
preparations for war- Use tariffs to slow China's preparations for war
- Use sanctions to slow North Korea's preparations for war
for war. What are some other suggestions?
On a personal level, here's a summary of what I wrote in the past to
someone living in Seoul, South Korea:
The thing is, you really have to think about what you want to do.
What this web site and Generational Dynamics give you is an insight
into what's going to happen. Some people ask me if it's better off
just to ignore all this stuff. My answer is that it probably is,
since you can't do anything about it, and you might as well just enjoy
life as normal.
So if you live in Seoul, just forget that you ever came to this site,
and go one with your happy day to day life as usual. Quite honestly,
in the end, it will probably be the best choice.
On the other hand, if you do want to do something about the situation,
then you have to stop being scared, make a plan, and do it. I've
known people who have become survivalists, and are now living in some
unknown bunkers somewhere in the midwest USA. Other people are making
sure that everyone in their family knows how to use a gun.
If you're a young male, you might take this advice from forum member
Higgenbotham:
So his advice is to pick a country, move there, and move in with someHiggenbotham wrote: > Based on the information you provided, since you are young
> (presumably wouldn't have a lot of money to invest) and you think
> a nuclear war is probable, I would suggest you first "invest in
> yourself" and your survival. One idea for consideration in that
> regard is to set yourself up to be able to get to a safe haven
> outside the US. A couple countries that come to mind are Chile and
> Namibia. One way to do that would be to try to meet a woman in a
> country you determine to be a safe haven who has a reputable and
> well connected family. Know how you are going to get to her
> family's home within 24 hours and have the money set aside to do
> that, your bags packed and an idea of what news would make you
> ready to act.
reputable woman.
Continuing with my response to the person living in Seoul, maybe that
option isn't available to you. If you're able to leave Korea, then
you have to decide whether you should do that and, if so, when and
where. Or, as I understand it, southern South Korea is likely to be a
lot safer than Seoul, so you might consider taking your family and
moving there.
Once you've figured out what your choices are, you have to pick one of
them and decide to live with it. If you decide to do nothing, live
with that. If you decide to move somewhere, live with that. Just
make up your mind and do it. And I really mean it when I say that
doing nothing may be the best choice, since no place is really safe
from a world war, so why bother?
So that was my reponse to someone living in Seoul.
So what should other people do?
Are there places in the US that might be safe?
Should people purchase enough canned food to last a year?
What about the EMP blast that's supposed to completely fry every
electrical circuit in the country, and lead to death of 90% of
the population?
#1 - Do not live in a big city/capitol city. As you have previously pointed out, when war comes...if China does strike the mainland, they are undoubtedly going to strike the major cities. I'm sure that Washington D.C., New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, and some of the other big cities on the coasts like San Francisco, Boston, and perhaps Miami will be tempting targets. State capitols will be secondary targets as well.
#2 - Do not live in a city that hosts a military base. Obviously, any city that hosts an Army, Naval, or Air Force base will be a priority target for Chinese missiles, rockets, and bombs. Here's an example. I was born in raised in Huntsville, AL. It's far from a major city...I imagine most Americans haven't heard of it before. But Huntsville hosts the Redstone Arsenal. The Arsenal is a garrison for a number of tenants including the United States Army Materiel Command, Army's Aviation and Missile Command, the Missile Defense Agency of the Department of Defense, and NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. Basically, Redstone Arsenal is the command center for the U.S. Army's missile and rocket program. And less than 40 miles from Huntsville lies the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant (In 2014, Browns Ferry was the second-largest power producer in the United States). Huntsville, AL is also home to the nation's second largest research park (Cummings Research Park), home to many of the defense contractors and subcontractors that provide the technology to build the Army's missiles and rockets that are controlled from Redstone Arsenal. So even though Huntsville has a population of less than 200,000, it will be a major target for China. Although my parents still live in the area, I don't want to be anywhere near Huntsville when war breaks out.
#3 - Live or have a place of safety in a rural area far from a major city or military installation. Have enough land so that you can grow your own crops. And to prepare for the coming war, become more self-reliant. It's not enough to merely have enough land to farm on. Go ahead and grow a half acre or 1 acre garden every year so you'll have the knowledge to farm the rest of your 40 acres when war breaks out. Buy a hunting rifle and learn how to kill a deer, clean it, and cook the venison. Learn how to can what you grow. Start out now by spending 1 day canning every summer and producing a few dozens cans of vegetables. This way, you and your loved ones will know how to create a thousand cans of vegetables and fruits when the need arises. If you know how to farm, can what you grow, and hunt and prepare deer, you won't starve during a future war.
#4 - Figure out which supplies will be most dearth in America once we can no longer import products from China and stockpile these items. I don't know which products these are, but once war with China begins, we will immediately lose access to every product that we currently import from China or any other Southeast Asian nation...from rare earth minerals to electronics to consumer goods to medical devices to food. Personally, I'll probably stock up on extra contact lenses and saline solution. Figure out which items are most important to you, especially if these items are not produced in the U.S. Also, if the production of these items in the U.S. depends on supplies or materials which are imported, then these items may not be able to be produced domestically in time of war. For example, there won't be many new smartphones after the war begins because they're almost all manufactured in China and it requires certain rare Earth metals and elements to create them...rare Earth metals that we can't dig out of the ground here in the States. The same goes for laptops and batteries for electric vehicles.
#5 - Buy guns and ammo and learn how to shoot your guns.
#6 - Buy a gas and a solar generator and a Ham radio. But access to gasoline will surely be a problem in time of war.
#7 - Have chickens on your rural property. The Chickens will provide a renewable source of protein with their eggs and their meat.
#8 - Have access to clean water, whether that's a well on your property or a nearby spring or creek.
#9 - Start stockpiling an emergency stash of cash. Don't keep it in a bank. Physically keep the cash where you can reach it in an emergency without depending on a bank.
#10 - Like Navigator suggested, take advantage of any connections to the U.S. Military if they're available. I'm already 47 years old so I'm already considered worthless by the U.S. military but if you're younger, you may want to consider joining the military. In times of war, those in the military will potentially have better access to food, shelter, and medical care than civilians. Remember there's only enough room for a relative chosen few in the nation's nuclear war fallout shelters and those in the military or who work for the government/hold political office will have priority seating reservations. Just make sure you don't get stuck in the infantry. But I'm going to plan on staying as far away from military bases as I can get.
This list could go on and on but I think it's good for all of us to start thinking this way...thinking about how we can become more self-reliant and prepare for what could be troublesome times ahead. And I need to follow all of this advice as well. I haven't even begun to prepare and as of today, I don't have a rural property...I don't know how to farm and I can't can. But I know about such things because my father and his family...they all grew up farming and canning what they grew. The knowledge is still there if we tap into it.
Regarding Chinese nuclear doctrine, you seem to be basing nuclear war scenarios based on what would have happened if war had broken out with the soviets during the cold war. But the soviets had a "massive retaliation" nuclear doctrine in which thousands of missiles would have been launched at all important cities and military installations. However China does not have a "mass retaliation" nuclear doctrine, their nuclear doctrine has always been a "minimal deterrence" nuclear doctrine in which missiles would be concentrated against the main strategic cities and installations (DC and military command headquarters). The total size of the Chinese arsenal has hovered around 300 to 500 warheads for the past several decades. Not to mention that they have to target several nations, while the US arsenal can be launched against either Russia or China at a moments notice.
Also southeast Asia and India are allied against China, NOT with China. You seem to have a distorted analysis of the current global strategic playing field.
Finally you mention bases in the US being targeted not simply by ICBMs but non-missile rockets and bombs, how would the Chinese get battlefield rockets and bombs anywhere near the range of any military base within the US? The Chinese have NO ability whatsoever of projecting conventional force to launch such attacks, especially in a war that includes nuclear strikes. They only have ICBMs.
Regarding Economics, the US is a food exporter; meaning we produce more than we need and export the rest; not a food importer, most of our food in the stores is grown in the USA.