Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 20-Jun-2019 World View: Turkey-EU tensions grow over Cyprus

It's probably not yet about to become a shooting war, but tensions
over Cyprus between Turkey versus Greece and the EU are the highest in
years. The tensions are over Turkey's plans to drill for gas and oil
in the waters west of Cyprus.

Image
  • Map of Cyprus in the east Mediterranean Sea


The island of Cyprus was a colony of Britain until it
gained independence from Britain in 1960 under a power-sharing
agreement between the Greeks and the Turks. Three countries --
Britain, Greece and Turkey -- would be responsible for
guaranteeing security in the new country.

Violence erupted soon after. In 1974, Greece's military junta backed
a coup against the president of Cyprus, leading to a civil war.
Turkey responded by invading northern Cyprus. About 165,000 Greek
Cypriots fled or were driven from the Turkish-occupied north, and
about 45,000 Turkish Cypriots left the south for the north.

Cyprus has been bitterly divided since the 1974 war, with Greek
Orthodox Christian Greeks governing the south, and Muslim Turks
governing the north. The two sides are partitioned by a "no-man's
land," a strip that stretches 112 miles across the entire island.

Image


The capital city Nicosia is in the center of Cyprus and is
partitioned as well. While partitions of other cities,
including Beirut, Belfast and Berlin, have disappeared in the last
few decades, the partition remains in Nicosia.

The Greek-ruled southern portion of Cyprus has become known as the
Republic of Cyprus. It joined the European Union on May 1, 2004, and
joined the eurozone on January 1, 2008. In the years that followed,
Cyprus had a major financial crisis and had to be bailed out by the
European Central Bank, the International Fund, and the European
Commission. Cyprus is not a member of Nato, and attempts for Cyprus
to join Nato have been blocked by the powerful pro-Russian communists
in the Greek Cypriot government.

The current surge in tensions was triggered in February, after
ExxonMobil announced that deep-water drilling off the western coast of
Cyprus had revealed a significant discovery of oil and gas. Greek
Cypriot energy minister Georgios Lakkotrypis said:
"This is the biggest discovery so far in Cyprus’s
exclusive economic [maritime] zone (EEZ) and, based on official
data, one of the biggest worldwide in the last two
years."
This must have sounded to officials in Turkey like waving a red flag
in front of a bull. Turkey does not recognize the sovereignty of the
(Greek) Republic of Cyprus, and in particular does not recognize
Cyprus's EEZ.

Turkey's foreign minister Mevlüt Çavusoglu released a letter saying:
"Turkey does not recognize the unilateral and
illegitimate exclusive economic zone claims of the Greek Cypriots.
Third parties should refrain in taking sides in overlapping
maritime boundary claims and they should not act as if they are in
a court in rendering judgement on bilateral maritime
boundaries."
Turkey said it would “exercise its sovereign rights” to drill off
Cyprus, and deployed its state-of-the-art drilling ship, the Fatih,
and its support vessels in May to begin drilling operations in the
potential gas fields identified by ExxonMobil, in Greek Cyprus's EEZ.

Then, last week, Turkey announced that it will send a second drilling
ship, the Yavuz, which can drill 12,200 meters deep, to begin
operations in early July.

The EU is threatening diplomatic retaliation, by freezing negotiations
over the modernization of the customs union between the EU and Turkey.
Originally, Turkey was going to join the European Union, but those
negotiations died years ago. Then Turkey was going to join the
Schengen zone, which would mean that any Turkish citizen could travel
throughout Europe without requiring a visa, but those negotiations
died as well. So now the negotiations have been over a customs
union, which would allow relatively frictionless trade between
Turkey and the EU, and the EU is threatening to end those negotiations
as well, because of the new Cyprus crisis.

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras would like the EU to impose
sanctions on Turkey. But the EU cannot go too far in sanctioning or
even criticizing Turkey, since Turkey is the gatekeeper for millions
of Syrian refugees on Turkish soil who would otherwise have tried to
reach Europe.


---- Sources:

-- Greece and Cyprus call on EU to punish Turkey in drilling dispute
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... ng-dispute
(Guardian, 18-Jun-2019)

-- Turkey insists on right to drill for energy reserves off Cyprus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... off-cyprus
(Guardian, 20-May-2019)

-- Huge gas discovery off Cyprus could boost EU energy security
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... y-security
(Guardian, 28-Feb-2019)

-- Turkey launches new gas drillship amid tensions with Cyprus
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... story.html
(WaPost/AP, 20-Jun-2019)

-- Turkey Defies EU by Sending Second Ship to Drill Off Cyprus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... off-cyprus
(BB, 20-Jun-2019)

-- Cyprus Ghost Town Becomes Pawn in Drilling Dispute With Turkey
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ith-turkey
(BB, 19-Jun-2019)

-- NATO Membership for Cyprus. Yes, Cyprus.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/n ... for-cyprus
(AtlanticCouncil, 31-Mar-2019)

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 20-Jun-2019 World View: World War II anecdote

I received the following e-mail message from a reader in response to
my announcement of my book. It contains some interesting anecdotes
about World War II.

Mr. Xenakis:

Thank you for letting me know about the publishing of your book on
China. I will be ordering it and a couple of more copies for friends
and family. Especially for my brother in-law, whose father was in the
7th Marines with Colonel Chesty Puller at Guadalcanal and Peleliu and
miraculously lived to return home at the end of the war. I have
reached the age where all of the relatives that fought in either WWII
or Korea have long since passed on.

An interesting anecdote about my father-in-law and his serving under
Colonel Puller: at the battle for Guadalcanal, the Japanese navy had
sunk many of the US Navy support ships intended to keep the marines
ashore supplied. The Marines there ran low on ammunition, food
rations, uniforms, everything. It was weeks before they were
resupplied. Prior to the siege of Guadalcanal, my father-in-law had
written home to his folks in Georgia and requested a hair clipper set
(manual, not electric). While at Guadalcanal, with the extreme
shortage of supplies, the Marines there had gotten quite straggly in
appearance. When packages from home finally reach the men on
Guadalcanal, my father-in-law cleaned up his haircut and his fellow
Marines started asking him to cut their hair. Chesty Puller and his
aides came walking by, saw what was going on, and Colonel Puller, who
could have gone to the front of the line, instead got in line behind
the enlisted men already in line. He did however give a command to my
father-in-law while he moved to get in line. My father-in-law was
using a white t-shirt to drape over the shoulders of the men as he was
cutting their hair. Colonel Puller said "Old man (that was apparently
Puller's way of addressing those under his command and rank), best to
use a olive drab shirt than a white shirt. We don't need to give the
Jap snipers an easier target". After Colonel Puller's turn he tried to
pay my father-in-law for cutting his hair, but my father-in-law
declined and said he wasn't charging anybody, he was just trying to
help. I thought that was just an amazing story. He never talked about
the combat however. He was a machine gunner and you know he must have
witnessed some truly horrific things. None of the veterans I met would
talk about it. My guess their experiences were so horrific that they
did not want to talk about it because it would bring up those horrible
memories and their way of dealing with it was to keep it shoved up in
a deep recess of their minds and ignored, as a way of coping. Those
that survived came back home after the war and got on with their
lives. I myself cannot imagine how hard that must have been. Maybe it
was because they were just grateful to be alive, and maybe even had
some survivor's guilt.

I read you book on Iran and learned insights about it that I had not
known or heard about. I look forward to reading your book on China.

Again, thank you for contacting me in regard to it. I hope the sales
will be very good and hope that you benefit from it financially. I
know you must have put your heart and soul into it.

Best wishes, ...

Trevor
Posts: 1209
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Trevor »

If you're interested, I wrote a new review of your book. That and this website have been a useful foundation for my own (fictional) projects.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

..a quick mention of cousin Iannis Xenakis:

Khoaï

Jack Edwards
Posts: 117
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2009 1:47 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Jack Edwards »

I've ordered both books. One has arrived and the other should arrive today. Now all I need is time to read them. Looking forward to it!

Regards,
Jack

mps92
Posts: 51
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by mps92 »

Aren't we going to talk about the situation in Iran?

The way Trump handled the situation was brilliant. By approving the attack but calling it off at the last minute, we avoid war but the Iranians understand that conflict is never off the table. It looks like the report was leaked deliberately. Absolute genius.

Trump is also showing that he's not the trigger-happy maniac that's just waiting to push the button. He gave Iran the benefit of the doubt by assuming that the drone was shot down by some foolish, overeager, swashbuckling Iranian officer against the wishes of the Iran govt.

As John has stated, unnecessary and risky decisions by officers can easily start wars, even if neither govt wants conflict. Let's just pray that Trump is aware that Iran should be our ally instead of our enemy, and aware that the China-Pakistan axis is the real threat.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 21-Jun-2019 Situation in Iran after drone shot down
mps92 wrote: > Aren't we going to talk about the situation in Iran?

> The way Trump handled the situation was brilliant. By approving
> the attack but calling it off at the last minute, we avoid war but
> the Iranians understand that conflict is never off the table. It
> looks like the report was leaked deliberately. Absolute genius.

> Trump is also showing that he's not the trigger-happy maniac
> that's just waiting to push the button. He gave Iran the benefit
> of the doubt by assuming that the drone was shot down by some
> foolish, overeager, swashbuckling Iranian officer against the
> wishes of the Iran govt.

> As John has stated, unnecessary and risky decisions by officers
> can easily start wars, even if neither govt wants conflict. Let's
> just pray that Trump is aware that Iran should be our ally instead
> of our enemy, and aware that the China-Pakistan axis is the real
> threat.
What's happened with Iran in the last 24 hours is absolutely
breathtaking.

If that whole scenario was accidental, then Trump is very lucky that
nothing went wrong.

But if you're right that Trump masterminded the scenario -- and that's
certainly quite possible or even likely, given his past successes with
foreign policy scenarios -- then you're right that it was brilliant.

I've never believed that the US and Iran were headed for war. Iran is
in a generational Awakening era, and has a history (since the
humiliating defeat in the Anglo-Persian wars of the 1800s) of avoiding
an actual war. Doing abductions and terrorist acts, whether through
Hezbollah, or exploding oil tankers or shooting down drones, is
exactly the style of Iran, especially since the 1979 revolution. That
way, Iran can gain the benefits of performing acts of war, while
maintaining deniability. ("We didn't do anything. There's no
evidence whatsoever." We hear this all the time from Russia.)

Trump, on the other hand, through his knowledge of Generational
Dynamics that he learned through Steve Bannon, understands that Iran's
hostility is only in the old hardline geezers, who are opposed by the
growing younger population that are anti-hardline and pro-West, so
Trump does not want to turn Iran's younger population against the
United States.

So there was never going to be a war or, if one begins, it will fizzle
quickly.

Trump said that he was going to strike 3 radar stations, but held back
since 150 people would be killed. The Iranians claim they could have
shot down an American spy plane with 8 people, but held back. So both
sides are signaling that they don't want war.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China Comparisons with 198

Post by John »

22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China

Comparisons with 1989 Tiananmen Square riots cause anxiety in Beijing

** 22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190622




Contents:
Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
Similarities with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
Differences with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
Southern China vs Northern China
No good choices for Xi Jinping


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, Extradition Law,
Carrie Lam, Xi Jinping, Taiwan, Britain,
Tiananmen Square massacre, May 4th Movement,
People's Liberation Army, PLA,
Southern Theater Command, Hong Kong Garrison,
Taiping Rebellion, White Lotus Rebellion,
Mao Zedong, Long March, Communist Revolution

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China

Post by John »

*** 22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
  • Similarities with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
  • Differences with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
  • Southern China vs Northern China
  • No good choices for Xi Jinping
****
**** Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
****


Image
Protesters outside police headquarters in Hong Kong on Friday (SCMP)

Thousands of protesters in Hong Kong blocked police headquarters on
Friday, continuing their protests that were triggered by the proposed
"Extradition Law."

In the hope of allowing the protests to fizzle out, the Hong Kong
police took no action to disperse the protesters. However,
larger protests are planned all weekend.

The proposed Extradition Law that would permit Hong Kong's government
to extradite anyone in Hong Kong -- citizens, businessmen and tourists
alike -- to China, to be tried by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thugs
in Beijing courts. The proposed law would also permit mainland
Chinese courts can request Hong Kong courts to freeze and confiscate
assets related to crimes committed on the mainland, and give control
of those assets to the CCP in Beijing.

Officials in Hong Kong and Beijing were shocked last week by the size
of the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Some two million
protesters filled the streets, over one-quarter of the entire Hong
Kong population.

With the third protest bringing one-quarter of Hong Kong's population
out on the streets to demand that Beijing's hand-picked leader Carrie
Lam step down, pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and Taiwan have
been emboldened. For the CCP, it's a question of what action must be
taken, not whether action should be taken.

When Britain handed Hong Kong over to China in 1997, there was a "one
country, two systems" agreement that would allow Hong Kong to retain
its own social legal and political systems. There was a strong
firewall in the agreement between the Hong Kong and Beijing legal
systems that the extradition law would breach.

Carrie Lam has profusely and abjectly apologized to the people of Hong
Kong, and announced the suspension of consideration for the
extradition bill. With activists planning massive new pro-democracy
demonstrations on Sunday of last weekend, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam
announced on Saturday:

<QUOTE>"After repeated internal deliberations over the last
two days, I now announce that the government has decided to
suspend the legislative amendment exercise, restart our
communication with all sectors of society, do more explanation
work and listen to different views of society."<END QUOTE>


Activists are demanding that the extradition law be scrapped
completely, so this temporary suspension will not satisfy activists.
As positions have hardened, this issue has taken on a symbolism that
goes far beyond Hong Kong.

No matter how weepy her apology was, she has little credibility among
the demonstrators because she didn't announce complete withdrawal of
the extradition law, which is a signal that it's going to be revived
at a time of the CCP's choosing.

Lam's climbdown was a major humiliation for the CCP, and Hong Kong is
Xi Jinping's portfolio, so hardliners in Beijing are blaming Xi for
the problems in Hong Kong. Xi is also being blamed for the failure so
far of the US-China trade negotiations. So Xi has two crises on his
hands, just before the G20 talks. This weakens Xi at a time when
there are hardliners in Beijing just waiting for Xi to fail so that
they can take over. Xi's position as "dictator for life" is not 100%
secure, and a palace coup would undoubtedly bring to power someone
younger and even more bellicose and belligerent.

Hardliners in Taiwan will also be strengthened. China has been using
a carrot and stick approach with Taiwan. On the one hand, Chinese
officials say that any move toward independence would result in
military reprisals. On the other hand, China has been on a continual
charm offensive to convince the Taiwanese people how much better off
they'd be as a province of China. Part of that charm offensive has
been to claim that Taiwan could have the same "one country, two
systems" perks that Hong Kong has. The protests in Hong Kong have
emboldened the pro-independence factions.

The protests last week were the largest that Hong Kong has seen since
June 1989, when Hong Kong was still a British colony, and millions in
Hong Kong protested against China in support of the millions of
students in the pro-democracy demonstrations Tiananmen Square, where
the CCP massacred thousands of students on June 4-5, 1989.

****
**** Similarities with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
****


Because of the similarity between last week's Hong Kong protests and
the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, if you want to understand the most
likely outcome of the Hong Kong protests, look at the history of the
Tiananmen Square massacre, and examine the similarities and
differences.

The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests did not begin on June 4. They
began in early May, commemorating the 70th anniversary of the
Tiananmen Square protests that launched the "May 4th Movement" on May
4, 1919. Throughout May 1989, the CCP watched Tiananmen Square with
growing alarm, because the pro-democracy protests were actually a
repudiation of the ideology of Socialism, Marxism and Communism.

In the perverse, delusional logic of the CCP, democracy is an
ideology, not a form of government. Furthermore, the CCP sees
democracy as an ideology in conflict with communism. So by the
beginning of June, the CCP was so alarmed that they had to crush the
protests, to prevent democracy from gaining an ideological victory.

The current pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong so far are on a
similar path. They're commemorating the 30th anniversary of the 1989
Tiananmen Square protests. As the number of protesters has grown into
the millions, the CCP in Beijing is seeing 1989 all over again. And
the pro-democracy protests are, once again, a repudiation of the
"communist" ideology promulgated by the CCP.

According to unnamed CCP sources speaking to Boxun.com, Xi Jinping has
already decided that "The situation in Hong Kong is in danger of
getting out of control," and that he will order a military response if
the situation worsens.

These sources say that the Southern Theater Command of the People's
Liberation Army (PLA) and the Hong Kong Garrison are awaiting orders
and prepared to fully respond to all possible scenarios that may arise
in Hong Kong.

Since 1997, the Hong Kong Garrison is a group of several thousand PLA
soldiers who are stationed in Hong Kong, but are meant to be
"invisible." They are confined to barracks, where they wear their
uniforms, but are not permitted to wear their uniforms in public.
They've never left their barracks in uniform in the 22 years they've
been stationed in Hong Kong, but they're prepared to emerge and take
military action if ordered to do so.

****
**** Differences with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
****


We've described the similarities with the 1989 Tiananmen Square
situation. However, there are significant differences as well.

The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre took place in Beijing, a region
tightly controlled by the CCP, where the international media was well
controlled, and was shut down quickly.

However, there's virtually no control of the international media in
Hong Kong. The CCP has canceled visas and deported journalists of
several publications, but the events of the last two week prove that
any violence in Hong Kong will immediately be known and broadcast
worldwide.

****
**** Southern China vs Northern China
****


However, there's a more important difference: The Tiananmen Square
massacre took place in Beijing in northern China, while Hong Kong is
in southern China.

Southeast China was the starting point of the last two massive Chinese
civil wars. Mao Zedong's Long March that led to the Communist
revolution civil war (1934-49) started in the south. The massive
Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), which was led by a Christian convert who
believed he was the son of God and the younger brother of Jesus, began
in the south and spread north.

Most people in the West do not make these connections, but you can be
certain that the paranoid officials in Beijing are well aware of the
dangers of a rebellion from the south that can spiral out of control
and travel north to swallow up Beijing.

Try playing around with the interactive "China strike map" from the
Hong Kong based China labor bulletin: https://maps.clb.org.hk/strikes/en

If you set the year to 2011, 2012, etc., you'll see that the number of
labor strikes is gradually increasing, from 184 in 2011 to 1702 in
2018. Furthermore, most of the strikes occur in southeast China,
which was the starting point of the unrest that led to the last two
massive Chinese civil wars.

This shows that there's already a level of unrest in southeast China,
and it's been growing steadily and relentlessly for years. Xi Jinping
is well aware of this.

Throughout China's millennia of history, there have been huge, massive
anti-government rebellions at regular intervals. In the last 200
years there have been the the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805), the
Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49).
Today, China is overdue for the next massive anti-government
rebellion, and Xi Jinping is well aware that the Hong Kong
pro-democracy demonstrations could be the trigger.

Xi Jinping has another worry. There is no surer way to trigger a mass
rebellion in China than a failing economy. China's economy has
already taken a big hit from the new US tariffs, as many businesses
are relocating out of China to neighboring countries.

Hong Kong has always been China's portal to the world financial
system, and if Hong Kong become chaotic to the point that this portal
is essentially shut down, it will cause the economic failure that will
trigger the expected rebellion.

****
**** No good choices for Xi Jinping
****


So Xi Jinping is boxed in, with no good choices.
  • Enacting the Extradition Law will cause more businessmen to
    flee to protect themselves and their assets.
  • Canceling the Extradition Law will embolden pro-democracy
    activists in Hong Kong and pro-independence activists in Taiwan.
  • Violently stopping the pro-democracy demonstrations will bring
    chaos to Hong Kong, and threaten it as a global financial portal.
  • Allowing the pro-democracy demonstrations to continue unchecked
    will risk triggering a rebellion starting in southern China.
It's hard to overestimate the shock felt in Hong Kong and Beijing over
the size of the pro-democracy demonstrations last week, and their
similarity to the 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen
Square.

The Chinese are running out of time in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and they
know it. The survivors of Mao's Communist Revolution are almost all
gone now, and the younger generations are increasingly anti-communist
and pro-democracy and pro-independence. At the same time, China's own
economy is hugely unstable and under pressure from the US tariffs.
China's entire business model, which involves stealing intellectual
property from the West, is also under attack.

China cannot tolerate this situation much longer. For 30 years, China
has been conducting a vitriolic hate campaign against Japan, and has
been planning for war to annex Taiwan and exterminate the Japanese.
The Chinese do not want war with the US (because they like us), but
they've been preparing for it.

Carrie Lam's weepy apology was certainly not an act of heartfelt
atonement or reconciliation, since that's not what the CCP ever does.
Instead, it was an act of total desperation, an attempt to head off
the worst. Over the next few weeks and months, we'll see if she
succeeded.

John J. Xenakis is author of "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2)"

Sources: South China Morning Post, Hong Kong and China Labor Bulletin, Hong Kong
and Reuters, 15-Jun-2019 and ChannelNewsAsia/AFP, 15-Jun-2019 and Bloomberg, 13-Jun-2019 and Bloomberg, 16-Jun-2019 and Hong Kong Free Press, 18-Jun-2019 and Taiwan News, 12-Jun-2019 and Boxun, 11-Jun-2019 and Inkstone, 3-Aug-2018


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, Extradition Law,
Carrie Lam, Xi Jinping, Taiwan, Britain,
Tiananmen Square massacre, May 4th Movement,
People's Liberation Army, PLA,
Southern Theater Command, Hong Kong Garrison,
Taiping Rebellion, White Lotus Rebellion,
Mao Zedong, Long March, Communist Revolution

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John J. Xenakis
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FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

John Cleese,.. like "cheese".

..in Nevis.

Not thrilled with the UK.

..'though,.... who is, actually?

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