Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 13-Jul-2019 China's nuclear capability

Image
  • Supposedly, China's nuclear warhead inventory is nothing
    to worry about


Official estimates are that China has an inventory of several hundred
nuclear weapons missiles. I hear this figure referenced in news shows
frequently, with the implication that the number is so low we really
don't have to worry about it.

Nobody seriously believes that. China has a stated policy of
subterfuge, lying and deception about such things. So other analysts
place the number of nuclear weapons missiles well into the thousands.

However, that only counts missiles that currently contain nuclear
weapons. China has many more nuclear-capable missiles that can
be converted to nuclear weapons missiles fairly quickly.

Furthermore, the Chinese acknowledge that they have an "Underground
Great Wall," a collection of 5,000 km of deep tunnels, with the
dual purpose of protecting Chinese missiles and also hiding them.

My own view of the Chinese Communist Party is that, in human terms,
it's psychopathically insane. The CCP has implemented one delusional
policy after another -- starting with the Mao Zedong's Great Leap
Forward in the late 1950s which killed tens of thousands of Chinese
through starvation, torture and execution; and moving forward to
locking up milions of Uighurs in concentration camps and crematoria;
locking up hundreds of thousands of their children in boarding schools
and forcing them to forget their Muslim culture and speak only Chinese
and recite verses praising the CCP as if they were Han Chinese; and
"Sinicizing" non-indigenous religions (Christianity, Buddhism, Islam)
so that, for example, you can be punished for worshipping Jesus Christ
instead of Xi Jinping.

These are some of the stupidest policies in the history of the world,
with no chance whatsoever of achieving whatever objectives the
sociopathic, delusional, paranoid CCP officials had in mind.

So I picture the CCP as being like a desperate old lady who
obsessively polishes the dining room table twice a day because she has
no idea what else to do. But instead of polishing the dining room
table, the CCP officials are doing the only thing they know how to do
-- develop and deploy more and more nuclear intercontinental ballistic
missile systems that have no purpose except to destroy American
cities, bases and aircraft carriers. Over the years, I've reported on
the development of several such missile systems.

So whatever the official figures are, my view is that the desperate
CCP officials are deploying as many thousands or tens of thousands of
nuclear weapons missiles targeting America as they can, because it's
becoming the only that they know how to do, and it's driving them
through their insanity to bring themselves and the world the greatest
catastrophe in world history.

The "good news" is that a nuclear weapon is that since a nuclear
weapon kills people only in a 10-20 mile range, including deaths
from radiation, the US will survive a Chinese missile attack.
You can't win a war with just missiles.

---- Sources:


-- The Expanding Chinese Nuclear Threat
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articl ... 14399.html
(Real Clear Defense, 6-May-2019)


-- Nuclear weapons factsheet
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/ ... whohaswhat
(Arms Control, July 2019)

--- Related


*** 1-Feb-2019 Trump cancels Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF)
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 870#p43870


** 23-Oct-18 World View -- Trump targets China by cancelling arms control treaty with Russia
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181023

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Tom Mazanec
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Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Actually, if you use ground bursts, a nuke can kill a lot further downwind than 20 miles. And that is not even considering targeting nuclear power plants or salting the warhead with cobalt.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

JCP

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by JCP »

I'm not worried about dying in a nuclear war; I'm worried about surviving one.

Trevor
Posts: 1209
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Trevor »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldn ... nnels.html

Came out several years ago and was mostly dismissed. A lot of the time, what I hear in response to China's threat is: "Those are nothing more than lies told by the military-industrial complex".

What's going on right now reminds me a lot of what was happening in the world around 1936-1937. It's becoming more and more obvious what China is intending but we're doing nothing to prepare for it. Sure, Trump's done something but he's only one man and his opponents can't fathom a world war.

Nuclear weapons would have a lesser impact on cities today because they're made of steel and concrete, not wood and paper as Hiroshima and Nagasaki were. Hell, even there most of the concrete buildings survived, as did their occupants. If we had a decent warning system and real education about what to do, many lives would be saved.

I expect those who survive will curse us for doing nothing to invest in civil defense and EMP shielding. Instead, we hold the attitude of: "You can't survive a nuclear war; don't even bother trying."

CH86
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by CH86 »

I originally posted this on the generational-theory forum and reposting it here:

Thanks John for finally revealing yourself openly to be a "perestroika deception" type conspiratorial doomer. The Only difference between you and the TFP (the final phase)/Duduman prophecy nuts is that they thought a massive nuclear attack on the US would come from Russia and You think that the Massive nuclear attack would come from China. Because nothing you say about china makes sense if you base your assessments using intelligence estimates of world nuclear arsenals. Your statements only Make sense if you think that China not only outnumbers the US and Russia in nuclear arsenal size but outnumbers them by several orders of magnitude. Both the US and Russia has whole agencies dedicated solely toward tracking the progress of foreign nuclear arsenals if a third power (China) was building nuclear weapons and increasing its arsenal in absolute numbers, the political and especially military establishments would be clamoring for a buildup of nuclear missiles. In fact the opposite of the case the US Military currently considers and absolute increase in the US nuclear arsenal to be redundant, that in itself indicates that there is no current indications of foreign nuclear builds in absolute numbers.

You also need massive stockpiles of weapons grade uranium and plutonium to build such an arsenal. That's why this theory and the Russian equivalent the "yamantau stockpile" theory are both regarded by intelligence as implausible.

JCP

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by JCP »

CH86 wrote:I originally posted this on the generational-theory forum and reposting it here:

Thanks John for finally revealing yourself openly to be a "perestroika deception" type conspiratorial doomer. The Only difference between you and the TFP (the final phase)/Duduman prophecy nuts is that they thought a massive nuclear attack on the US would come from Russia and You think that the Massive nuclear attack would come from China. Because nothing you say about china makes sense if you base your assessments using intelligence estimates of world nuclear arsenals. Your statements only Make sense if you think that China not only outnumbers the US and Russia in nuclear arsenal size but outnumbers them by several orders of magnitude. Both the US and Russia has whole agencies dedicated solely toward tracking the progress of foreign nuclear arsenals if a third power (China) was building nuclear weapons and increasing its arsenal in absolute numbers, the political and especially military establishments would be clamoring for a buildup of nuclear missiles. In fact the opposite of the case the US Military currently considers and absolute increase in the US nuclear arsenal to be redundant, that in itself indicates that there is no current indications of foreign nuclear builds in absolute numbers.

You also need massive stockpiles of weapons grade uranium and plutonium to build such an arsenal. That's why this theory and the Russian equivalent the "yamantau stockpile" theory are both regarded by intelligence as implausible.
Even one nuclear bomb going off in the US would have devastating psychological effects on people, not to mention the economy. America after a dozen nuclear attacks (most likely on our most important urban centers) would be devastating. It doesn't take 1000s of nuclear warheads to destroy the country on many levels.

CH86
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by CH86 »

JCP wrote:
CH86 wrote:I originally posted this on the generational-theory forum and reposting it here:

Thanks John for finally revealing yourself openly to be a "perestroika deception" type conspiratorial doomer. The Only difference between you and the TFP (the final phase)/Duduman prophecy nuts is that they thought a massive nuclear attack on the US would come from Russia and You think that the Massive nuclear attack would come from China. Because nothing you say about china makes sense if you base your assessments using intelligence estimates of world nuclear arsenals. Your statements only Make sense if you think that China not only outnumbers the US and Russia in nuclear arsenal size but outnumbers them by several orders of magnitude. Both the US and Russia has whole agencies dedicated solely toward tracking the progress of foreign nuclear arsenals if a third power (China) was building nuclear weapons and increasing its arsenal in absolute numbers, the political and especially military establishments would be clamoring for a buildup of nuclear missiles. In fact the opposite of the case the US Military currently considers and absolute increase in the US nuclear arsenal to be redundant, that in itself indicates that there is no current indications of foreign nuclear builds in absolute numbers.

You also need massive stockpiles of weapons grade uranium and plutonium to build such an arsenal. That's why this theory and the Russian equivalent the "yamantau stockpile" theory are both regarded by intelligence as implausible.
Even one nuclear bomb going off in the US would have devastating psychological effects on people, not to mention the economy. America after a dozen nuclear attacks (most likely on our most important urban centers) would be devastating. It doesn't take 1000s of nuclear warheads to destroy the country on many levels.
A nuclear strike on the US requires a prerequisite of the destruction of the US military and Nuclear capabilities. We have over 5000 military bases, 1000 silos and 14 nuclear missile submarines. One would need at least 10000 nukes to acquire the prerequisites for an attack on civilians. The only other scenario is a "bin laden" type scenario where the enemy leadership convinces itself the we would not shoot back. It is the establishment who choose to clamp down on the controls of the US government who would have any blame for creating such and impression. The political establishment is supposed to work for us, we the people do not work for them.

JCP

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by JCP »

Nuclear strikes would lead to economic chaos, food riots, power grid failures, anarchy in the welfare dependent urban centers. The dollar would collapse. Just one atomic bomb would be 9/11 on steroids.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

"The vibes were good at the start. Arrived on
time. Greetings. Drinks and snacks. And then, at some point, I
innocently uttered the phrase: “Because we from Hong Kong...” My
date, from mainland China, swiftly interrupted me. She raised her
voice and eyebrows, signaling how angry she was. She rapped the
table with her fingers and snapped: “Stop saying you are from Hong
Kong. You are Chinese and from China.”

I decided not to say “Hong Kong” for the rest of our conversation.
But she wouldn’t let it go. She derisively attributed Hong Kong
people’s denial of our Chinese identity to our low self-esteem. In
her mind, people from mainland China seem to be smarter and more
financially secure than their Hong Kong counterparts."<END QUOTE>

As he described, the evening became increasingly tense, and they
parted without even saying goodbye. Next day, she blocked him on both
WhatsApp and WeChat.

The north-south conflict goes far beyond thwarted love and romance.
Typical Hong Kong dogs with their snobbish attitudes towards Mainlanders. Once again we see the true colors of Hong Kongers--this isn't really about democracy, it's about "We're better than Mainlanders." They must get that from 156 years of being the house n-----s of Britain.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest wrote:The PLA warned among other things that the move "severely undermined Sino-US military-to-military relations" at an already sensitive juncture in relations
Crocodile cries a river!

If they were really worried about, "... undermined Sino-US military-to-military relations ...", they would not have delineated a Nine-Dash-Line, and then spent billions over the past 10 years building up ships and then making attack bases on the main reefs within the South China Sea, within other country's EEZ, which China flat-out refuses to recognize or negotiate about.

Nor tried to claim Japanese territory as a Chinese island, which has triggered to the Japanese to build up and F-35B carrier fleet and arm its Islands with anti-ship and long range land-attack cruise missiles.

A disingenuous pack of endlessly whining belligerent lying CHICOM filth who keep crying that they're totally 'innocent'.



TO HELL WITH CHINA!
SAY IT TO OUR FACES!

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