Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:29 am

Do you think that invading Hong Kong means an invasion of Taiwan?

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:44 am

** 04-Aug-2019 Invading Hong Kong

Guest wrote:> Do you think that invading Hong Kong means an invasion of
> Taiwan?


No. "Invading Hong Kong" just means unleashing army troops already in
barracks in Hong Kong. Since Hong Kong belongs to China, it would be
an internal Chinese matter, not an act of war.

Invading Taiwan would/will be an act of war, and and would involve
massive military action involving the army, navy and air force, and
would trigger a massive military response by Taiwan and the US.

Trevor
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Trevor » Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:45 am

I've been doing a bit of reading and I would say that the Cathar Crusade, lasting from 1209 to 1229, cannot be anything other than a crisis war. It's by far the most brutal of the Crusades despite being all but forgotten now. Many scholars describe it as a pre-modern genocide.

This really requires more reading but from my analysis, the scale of the atrocities and the long-term consequences indicate a crisis war.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:22 am

** 04-Aug-2019 Cathar Crusade

Trevor wrote:> I've been doing a bit of reading and I would say that the Cathar
> Crusade, lasting from 1209 to 1229, cannot be anything other than
> a crisis war. It's by far the most brutal of the Crusades despite
> being all but forgotten now. Many scholars describe it as a
> pre-modern genocide.

> This really requires more reading but from my analysis, the scale
> of the atrocities and the long-term consequences indicate a crisis
> war.


I read a couple of sources on the subject, and it seems to follow a
familiar pattern. The Cathars became a populist religion that began
in the Awakening era and became popular and spread through the
Unraveling era. The Catholic Church first used peaceful means
("persuasion") to stop the spread, but those failed. Then there were
small local clashes. The sizes of the clashes grew.

It appears that the Regeneracy occurred in in 1224 when King Louis
VIII entered the war on the side of the Church, followed by King Louis
IX in 1226. The Cathars were crushed and forced to surrender by 1229,
leading to a "Treaty of Paris." This appears to be the crisis climax.

After that, the Inquisition took over, which would be the kind of
thing that happens in a First Turning Recovery Era. There were still
clashes, with the most notable occurring in 1244 and 1255. "The last
known Cathar burning occurred in 1321."

Here are the sources I read:

https://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/en ... an_Crusade
https://www.ancient.eu/Albigensian_Crusade/
http://www.cathar.info/cathar_wars.htm

The analysis that I wrote above makes sense and appears to be correct,
and as you say, it does seem to be a "pre-modern genocide," but
there's a lot missing from it. In particular, what's needed is to
identify the preceding generational crisis war, and why it led to the
rise and spread of the Cathars during the Awakening and Unraveling
eras.

In particular, who are the Cathars? What's their history? Are they
an ethnic group? A geographic group? Did they speak a different
language? Have a different skin color or appearance? What happened
to them in the preceding crisis war? What do they have in common that
caused them to form an identity group based on the Cathar heresy?

A complete analysis would require going back a couple of crisis wars,
and show what led up to the Cathar Crusade.

Next, what happened to the Cathars after that? Maybe their heresy
religion disappeared, but the people didn't disappear. What role did
they play in the crisis war that followed the Cathar Crusade?

This is the difference between ordinary historical accounts versus
generational analyses. An ordinary historical account that any
historian might write just says something happened on a certain date
or in a certain decade, and lists names, dates and places. A
generational analysis has to include the flow of generations and
identity groups through multiple generational eras over two or three
centuries, to show how one era leads to the next.

A generational analysis is clearly a lot more complicated than a
simple historical account that a historian typically writes. If you
want to carry this further, I suggest just reading 20 or 30 more
relevant sources. My experience is that once you've read enough stuff
from different political points of view, the generational events and
eras become very clear, and everything falls into place.

Millenial83

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Millenial83 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:08 pm

John wrote:** 04-Aug-2019 El Paso manifesto

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:> https://drudgereport.com/flashtx.htm
> ..who, around here, does this moron sound like to you?
> Hint: <do I really need to give hints?>


Millenial83 wrote:> Sad, he should have waited. Better to run with a pack in the
> coming Civil War than jump the gun as a lone wolf.


The person who wrote that manifesto, allegedly the El Paso
shooter, clearly had mental health issues and was clearly
delusional.

Are you saying that you agree with the manifesto?


What he said in the manifesto isn't delusional it's rather logical. I don't condone lone wolf vigilantism but his overall world view is correct. Civil War is coming to America

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:16 pm

** 04-Aug-2019 Idiocy

Millenial83 wrote:> What he said in the manifesto isn't delusional it's rather
> logical. I don't condone lone wolf vigilantism but his overall
> world view is correct. Civil War is coming to America


I'm going to give you some advice. With two mass shootings in one
day, there are a lot of very raw emotions right now. And now you
apparently are excusing and condoning the actions of the shooters.

I realize that you take pride in your stupidity, but the way you're
going you could easily really piss someone off, and people are being
told "if you see something, say something." You may think that you're
totally anonymous, but if you say something so stupid that you become
a person of interest, then you could be tracked down through your
internet trail.

I suggest that you put aside your fun, mocking role as a total idiot,
and start to appreciate the fact that a lot of people have been badly
hurt and many who aren't directly affected are still in shock over
what happened in El Paso and Denver, and none of them will appreciate
your total stupidity, even if you think you're being cute. It's time
for you to start acting like an adult.

Millenial83

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Millenial83 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:30 pm

John wrote:** 04-Aug-2019 Idiocy

Millenial83 wrote:> What he said in the manifesto isn't delusional it's rather
> logical. I don't condone lone wolf vigilantism but his overall
> world view is correct. Civil War is coming to America


I'm going to give you some advice. With two mass shootings in one
day, there are a lot of very raw emotions right now. And now you
apparently are excusing and condoning the actions of the shooters.

I realize that you take pride in your stupidity, but the way you're
going you could easily really piss someone off, and people are being
told "if you see something, say something." You may think that you're
totally anonymous, but if you say something so stupid that you become
a person of interest, then you could be tracked down through your
internet trail.

I suggest that you put aside your fun, mocking role as a total idiot,
and start to appreciate the fact that a lot of people have been badly
hurt and many who aren't directly affected are still in shock over
what happened in El Paso and Denver, and none of them will appreciate
your total stupidity, even if you think you're being cute. It's time
for you to start acting like an adult.


Why are combining the two events (Dayton not Denver by the way)? There was no political motive at all in Dayton.

John I realize the acceleration of current events upsets you since it shows us on the Civil War Crisis War view are correct and you on the WWWIII with China side are wrong, but please keep your emotions at bay and try to stay objective.

John
Posts: 8716
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby John » Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:43 pm

** 04-Aug-2019 World View: China's yuan (renminbi) currency breaks 7 to the dollar

For those who care about such things, in the last hour, China has just
fixed its yuan (renminbi) currency exchange rate to 7.0335 to the
dollar, as reported on Bloomberg TV.

The exchange rate has been below 7 for years, and China has remained
committed to keep it below 7. The fact that the exchange rate
has increased above 7 means that the yuan currency has been
falling in value (since you pay more yuan when you use the
currency to purchase dollars).

The weakening of China's currency has been a subject of debate in
Washington recently because of the US-China trade war. Donald Trump
has place tariffs on Chinese products. This means that when US
companies purchase these products, they have to pay a tax that goes
into the US treasury, and the company passes those taxes on to
consumers in the form of price increases.

However, the Trump administration claims that China is paying for the
tariffs, and points to the fact that prices have not been increasing
since the tariffs were implemented.

The way this works, according to the Trump administration, is that
China has been absorbing the cost of the tariffs in two ways -- by
lowering their prices for products, and by weakening the yuan currency
so that you need fewer dollars to pay for a Chinese product priced in
yuan.

This evening, China weakened the yuan currency significantly, and this
supports the position of the Trump administration.

---- Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe
(Bloomberg, August 4, 2019, 9:22 PM EDT)

market_marinade
Posts: 11
Joined: Sun May 12, 2019 5:23 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby market_marinade » Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:18 pm

John wrote:** 04-Aug-2019 World View: China's yuan (renminbi) currency breaks 7 to the dollar

For those who care about such things, in the last hour, China has just
fixed its yuan (renminbi) currency exchange rate to 7.0335 to the
dollar, as reported on Bloomberg TV.

The exchange rate has been below 7 for years, and China has remained
committed to keep it below 7. The fact that the exchange rate
has increased above 7 means that the yuan currency has been
falling in value (since you pay more yuan when you use the
currency to purchase dollars).

The weakening of China's currency has been a subject of debate in
Washington recently because of the US-China trade war. Donald Trump
has place tariffs on Chinese products. This means that when US
companies purchase these products, they have to pay a tax that goes
into the US treasury, and the company passes those taxes on to
consumers in the form of price increases.

However, the Trump administration claims that China is paying for the
tariffs, and points to the fact that prices have not been increasing
since the tariffs were implemented.

The way this works, according to the Trump administration, is that
China has been absorbing the cost of the tariffs in two ways -- by
lowering their prices for products, and by weakening the yuan currency
so that you need fewer dollars to pay for a Chinese product priced in
yuan.

This evening, China weakened the yuan currency significantly, and this
supports the position of the Trump administration.

---- Sources:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe
(Bloomberg, August 4, 2019, 9:22 PM EDT)



The U.S. Treasury is now likely (almost definitely) to label them a currency manipulator, with China barely avoiding the label from the last Report the Treasury released.

From the October 2018 Foreign Exchange Report, published by the U.S. treasury:

"Treasury places significant importance on China adhering to its commitments to refrain from engaging in competitive devaluation and to not target China’s exchange rate for competitive purposes."

I don't think the explicit labeling of a currency manipulator will have much of an immediate impact (other than the movement of prices/futures in various exchanges), but it is likely that other countries will be encouraged to limit or disengage their trading activities with the country, as the manipulator is "cheating" its way towards a higher trade surplus, faster GDP growth, higher employment rates, etc.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm528

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Postby Guest » Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:21 am

Millenial83 wrote:
John wrote:** 04-Aug-2019 Idiocy

Millenial83 wrote:> What he said in the manifesto isn't delusional it's rather
> logical. I don't condone lone wolf vigilantism but his overall
> world view is correct. Civil War is coming to America


I'm going to give you some advice. With two mass shootings in one
day, there are a lot of very raw emotions right now. And now you
apparently are excusing and condoning the actions of the shooters.

I realize that you take pride in your stupidity, but the way you're
going you could easily really piss someone off, and people are being
told "if you see something, say something." You may think that you're
totally anonymous, but if you say something so stupid that you become
a person of interest, then you could be tracked down through your
internet trail.

I suggest that you put aside your fun, mocking role as a total idiot,
and start to appreciate the fact that a lot of people have been badly
hurt and many who aren't directly affected are still in shock over
what happened in El Paso and Denver, and none of them will appreciate
your total stupidity, even if you think you're being cute. It's time
for you to start acting like an adult.


Why are combining the two events (Dayton not Denver by the way)? There was no political motive at all in Dayton.

John I realize the acceleration of current events upsets you since it shows us on the Civil War Crisis War view are correct and you on the WWWIII with China side are wrong, but please keep your emotions at bay and try to stay objective.


I'm mixed ethnicity (American), and I can see that we are heading for a race war. It's not just that. The country is being overrun with foreigners who have no interest in being American except for welfare benefits. Latinos in Cali are openly racist and hostile towards Asians. Why? Because Asians make real money, pay taxes, own nice homes, and go to the best schools. Asians also assimilate. Latinos are by far the most racist people I have ever encountered. They are the worst. Not white people, Latinos.

A lot of Asians are leaving the US and heading to Canada or Australia. Most of my in-laws live in Canada. They're done gone.

I don't see how anyone can deny that the US is heading for a race war. Whatever the Mexicans take, will be as bad off as Mexico. I don't want to live there. Neither do the Mexicans.


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