Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 20-Jan-2020 World View: Iraq's Muhasasa System - Confessional form of government
Warren Dew wrote: > Not correct. The Islamic State started as the Islamic State in
> Iraq in 2006, and both Abu Omar Al Baghdadi, its first leader, and
> Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, its late leader, were Iraqis. When the
> Syrian civil war resulted in large numbers of Sunni militias being
> formed, the Islamic State absorbed some of them, but that was
> recruitment, not the foundation of the state.

> That said, I don't think Iraq actually has a confessional form of
> government; its democratic government doesn't guarantee any power
> for the Sunnis.
Well, ok, in 2006 it was called al-Qaeda in Iraq, though al-Baghdadi
began putting out press releases calling it various flavors of Islamic
State in Iraq / Iraq and Syria / Sham / the Levant or whatever, or
Daesh in Arabic. I think of ISIS as beginning in 2013-14, when
al-Baghdadi broke from al-Qaeda and formed a caliphate in Raqqa,
Syria. But I wasn't seeking to get into that kind of history. I was
trying to make the simple point that the rise of ISIS was not caused
by Iraq's confessional form of government, since al-Qaeda originated
in Afghanistan and has spread to many other countries from southeast
Asia to northern Africa where there is no confessional form of
government.

However, you seem to have changed your mind anyway, because now you're
saying that Iraq's government isn't confessional after all.

Here's an article on the subject:

-- Muhasasa system / Confessional politics ensured Iran’s colonisation
of Iraq
https://thearabweekly.com/confessional- ... ation-iraq
(ArabWeekly, 4-Dec-2019)

This article blames Iraq's confessional Muhasasa System on the
Americans, who supposedly imposed it on the Iraqis, after Saddam was
deposed. Whereas you blame the rise of ISIS on the confessional
system, this article blames the violent interference of Iran into Iraq
on the confessional system.

Both of these make the logical error of assuming that correlation
implies causation. Irrespective of the form of government, both
al-Qaeda and Iran would have infiltrated Iraq. Iran's infiltration
follows from the Iran/Iraq war, and al-Qaeda's infiltration follows
from its spread to numerous countries.

Reading the Arab Weekly article leads me to an interesting
speculation. We know that Iraq attacked Iran with WMDs, and Iran was
convinced that Iraq was developing more WMDs, and only ended their own
nuclear development program in 2003 with Khamenei's fatwa, after the
Iraq war proved that Iraq was not developing WMDs. The speculation,
based on my reading of the Arab Weekly article, is that Iran demanded
of George Bush to implement a weak confessional form of government in
Iraq, in exchange for the fatwa to end nuclear development.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Climate Change Trans Counselling



the 998th second part (very important!) <chuckle!>
https://youtu.be/uo8qXxnFuRQ?t=998

mr nobody

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by mr nobody »

Hi John,
I strongly disagree about your analysis about impending financial doom.
First of the bat, using P/E as the basis for explaining the coming crash is outdated by at least 40 years.
US dollar got of the Bretton Woods in the 1976 and since then any prices in USD are meaningless, because it doesn't have an 'intrinsic value' anymore. 'Historical average' of P/E 14 doesn't mean anything, because the dollar and also the world is so much different now, especially in financial terms.
If you want to analyse financial markets, use gold, as in this example(S&P500vsGold):
https://sdbullion.com/blog/gold-vs-sp-500-chart

A simple trend can be established, where a single unit of S&P500 is becoming more valuable in gold over time. If 40 years ago, 1 oz could be used as average, then in these days its around 2 oz.
Now this is not the case, for instance in China or Japan.

But I still agree that financial ruin is coming, partly because nothing was fixed, banksters weren't put in jail, and the ginormous financial hole was mended with public funds(government), and partly because central banks all over the world 'bought'/'centralized' large portions of state economies(with printed money).

Now I don't now which one will happen first: government insolvency or currency crash(central bank 'insolvency'/'overextension'), but it will. I bet on EU, because its even bigger house of cards than China. But one of them will break, maybe even both. Kinda depends on the US.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 21-Jan-2020 World View: Financial doom
mr nobody wrote: > I strongly disagree about your analysis about impending financial
> doom. ...

> But I still agree that financial ruin is coming...
Well, that makes sense.
mr nobody wrote: > 'Historical average' of P/E 14 doesn't mean anything, because the
> dollar and also the world is so much different now, especially in
> financial terms.
So I guess you think that 2% interest rates will last forever, in
this "so much different" world.
mr nobody wrote: > A simple trend can be established, where a single unit of S&P500
> is becoming more valuable in gold over time. If 40 years ago, 1 oz
> could be used as average, then in these days its around
> 2 oz.
Gold, like the stock market, is in a huge bubble. Anyone who invests
in gold will lose a great deal of money.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

mr nobody wrote:Hi John,
I strongly disagree about your analysis about impending financial doom.
First of the bat, using P/E as the basis for explaining the coming crash is outdated by at least 40 years.
US dollar got of the Bretton Woods in the 1976 and since then any prices in USD are meaningless, because it doesn't have an 'intrinsic value' anymore. 'Historical average' of P/E 14 doesn't mean anything, because the dollar and also the world is so much different now, especially in financial terms.
If you want to analyse financial markets, use gold, as in this example(S&P500vsGold):
https://sdbullion.com/blog/gold-vs-sp-500-chart

A simple trend can be established, where a single unit of S&P500 is becoming more valuable in gold over time. If 40 years ago, 1 oz could be used as average, then in these days its around 2 oz.
Now this is not the case, for instance in China or Japan.

But I still agree that financial ruin is coming, partly because nothing was fixed, banksters weren't put in jail, and the ginormous financial hole was mended with public funds(government), and partly because central banks all over the world 'bought'/'centralized' large portions of state economies(with printed money).

Now I don't now which one will happen first: government insolvency or currency crash(central bank 'insolvency'/'overextension'), but it will. I bet on EU, because its even bigger house of cards than China. But one of them will break, maybe even both. Kinda depends on the US.
When a host dies, do it's parasites "leave the host", by either dying or moving?

Insolvent governments are STILL governments. Even abject anarchic chaos is still "government" which "represents" a "country".

People with money (ie "banks") simply move away from chaos.

When a government has little credibility, with anyone, banks leave.
When a government has no credibility, with anyone, governments are replaced.

"DOOM" only happens if a non-coordinated mass of "interests" (powerful people) simultaneously "quasi-realize" (explanation below) that a "DOOM" is in their best interest.

Localized "DOOM" is not "DOOM", where "DOOM" is veritably global/universal.

By "quasi-realization" (above) I mean: "They (the entities involved) are SURPRISED, and yet quite doubtful, that their 'peers' are aligned or aligning with them."

...there is no "Illuminati"! :)

Will there be a "DOOM"? I predict rather large localized dooms, but no DOOM until 80% of the combined "governance of the world" reaches the "very-near-no-confidence" point, which won't happen until AFTER the "Surveillance State" ceases to become the predominant form of "state" on the planet.

We must first see the RISE of the Surveillance State (AI enabled), then it's "maturation" and subsequently it's FALL.

The "Rise" will not occur until the "perceived" Small Singularity occurs, which will actually be a "Multularity", which will allow the tech necessary for "proper/desired" surveillance to be developed.

The "true Singularity" will likely never happen, or at least won't happen for several hundred years (most likely three or four 4-generation cycles [320 to 410] years), primarily because of the "Multularity" inhibiting it's development.

..info from the future. Aren't you guys lucky you've got a feed from the teleological retrocausal mechanism? :)

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

'A few gold coins and pistol will get you over the Canadian border' --Roger Ailes

But considering Canada still has Prime Minister Zoolander running the show, there is no guarantee Canada will be any better off then the US.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Gold is not an investment. It's a measure and store of value and a medium of exchange. No national currencies fit that description. They are merely mediums of exchange. In USD, gold is fairly valued at $1000-2000. USD is constantly losing value due to inflation. Gold has shown for 100 years as a predictable inflation hedge. It's one of the least volatile ways to save your assets.

mooreupp
Posts: 34
Joined: Thu May 19, 2011 6:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by mooreupp »

Agree on gold being a bubble unfortunately. I would like to buy something I feel fairly sure would keep value under any circumstance and I'm not sure of one (not that we are talking any huge sum of money regardless). I have bought a few silver coins and plan several more in case the government ultimately decideds fire is better than ice (hyperinflation over debt collapse). Leave the rest in cash to hedge.

Guys watching the flu out of China? Not yet sure this is a huge deal but is spreading quick.

P.S. bought your physical books and realy like so far.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

mooreupp wrote:Agree on gold being a bubble unfortunately. I would like to buy something I feel fairly sure would keep value under any circumstance and I'm not sure of one (not that we are talking any huge sum of money regardless). ...
Invest in huge quantities of non-perishable antibiotics (!?) and (non-perishable) pain medication.

..the "non-perishable" part might be tricky.

..also,.. drug enforcement agencies may find you "of interest".

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Guest wrote:Gold is not an investment. It's a measure and store of value and a medium of exchange. ...
Anything that is a "store of value" over time is an investment.

..might be a good one, or a bad one, though, depending... just sayin'... :)

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