Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 22-Feb-2020 World View: Spanish Flu
utahbob wrote: > Time to put your tin foil hats on:

> https://news.webindia123.com/news/Artic ... 09051.html

> Since the Corona virus is spreading into the the Middle East and
> Africa, would this stop the wars in Yemen, Libya, Iraq/Syria in
> their tracks as the Spanish Flu in 1918 with WWI?

> I am wondering if the Spanish Flu model of multiple waves
> spreading around the globe would apply this time to Corona?

> Did past iterations of Ebola and Marl-burg in Africa slow down the
> local wars?
Well, there's been big ethnic war going on in eastern DRC for years,
and the arrival of a new Ebola outbreak hasn't slowed it down, but in
fact has made Ebola an additional weapon of war.

The things that make this possible are: (1) The difficulty in
transmitting Ebola, requiring close physical contact, and (2)
aggressive use of newly developed vaccines.

Neither of those things apply with Covid-19. It can be transmitted
through the air, and there are no vaccines.

With regard to the Spanish Flu ending WW I, note that Russia and
the Mideast were in a generational Recovery era, with no desire for
another war, and Europe and America were in a generational Unraveling
era, also with no desire for war.

Today, much of the world is in a generational Crisis era, and many
countries are actively planning for wars of revenge. Army generals
would have to have ways of isolating coronavirus infections, but that
would stop them from waging war. Also, coronavirus may become a
weapon of war, as some people believe has already happened for the
Chinese.

gfhgjh

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by gfhgjh »

From the numbers it looks like we are about where China was 4 weeks ago.

It would be reasonable to assume that there will be 80-100K cases worldwide in another 4 weeks.

South Korea and Japan are in the hot seat now.

There are already 77,923 cases worldwide, if you believe the numbers.

And I don't.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

If you live in NYC a million people a day ride in packed trains to and from work. If one person has it EVERYONE HAS IT.

Can’t wait to see how things are in two weeks. I’ll either feel like an ******* for believing this was the real deal or I will be bunkered and manning the turrets picking off viral zombies...

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

I'm guessing the real threat is the break of the supply chain.

Just about everything in Wal Mart is from China. Think about that as you walk down the isles. Consider the pharmacy section with all the prescription and over-the-counter drugs, personal hygiene, linens, all the plastic containers, auto parts, tools, soap, cleaning products, paper products, etc. Now consider those shelves getting empty. Same goes for dozens of other stores.

What about the hardware stores? What happens to construction when there's no nails or screws or saw blades? What happens when your local mechanic can't get parts to repair your car? Trains? Ships?

Outsourcing to China is a curse.

Great time to be alive. Yeah. Sure it is.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Just about everything in Wal Mart is from China. Think about that as you walk down the isles. Consider the pharmacy section with all the prescription and over-the-counter drugs, personal hygiene, linens, all the plastic containers, auto parts, tools, soap, cleaning products, paper products, etc. Now consider those shelves getting empty. Same goes for dozens of other stores.
Well, it that case, I'm glad I splurged on that expensive bedding at the Zara Home store. Nothing like a soft white duvet to keep the zombies away.

John
Posts: 11485
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 22-Feb-2020 World View: Supply Chain
Guest wrote: > I'm guessing the real threat is the break of the supply chain.

> Just about everything in Wal Mart is from China. Think about that
> as you walk down the isles. Consider the pharmacy section with all
> the prescription and over-the-counter drugs, personal hygiene,
> linens, all the plastic containers, auto parts, tools, soap,
> cleaning products, paper products, etc. Now consider those
> shelves getting empty. Same goes for dozens of other stores.

> What about the hardware stores? What happens to construction when
> there's no nails or screws or saw blades? What happens when your
> local mechanic can't get parts to repair your car? Trains? Ships?

> Outsourcing to China is a curse.

> Great time to be alive. Yeah. Sure it is.
Of all disasters surrounding coronavirus, the supply chain issue is
probably the best understood, and the earliest to fix. A closed
business goes bankrupt, and so everone will be looking for ways --
robotics, working at home, hazmat suits, etc. -- to get things going
again. When I said that there would be no "V-Shaped Recovery," I
didn't mean that there would be no recovery at all. I would expect
most companies to be at least partially back in business by summer.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest wrote:
Just about everything in Wal Mart is from China. Think about that as you walk down the isles. Consider the pharmacy section with all the prescription and over-the-counter drugs, personal hygiene, linens, all the plastic containers, auto parts, tools, soap, cleaning products, paper products, etc. Now consider those shelves getting empty. Same goes for dozens of other stores.
Well, it that case, I'm glad I splurged on that expensive bedding at the Zara Home store. Nothing like a soft white duvet to keep the zombies away.
It sound like the perfect love nest to enjoy your last days.

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Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4181
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Why the US Is Headed into Its Fourth Turning
https://internationalman.com/articles/w ... h-turning/
Let me start off by recommending both Generations and The Fourth Turning to everybody. Both books offer quite a scholarly, readable, and prescient view of the cyclicality of history. And offer a very plausible forecast for the 2020s.
History’s best seen as cyclical, rather than a straight-line progress to some preordained end the way both the Marxists and the Abrahamic religions see it. But then, Ecclesiastes has its famous quote that there’s nothing new under the sun.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

200 under observation in San Diego? My prediction is that this thing has already blown wide open in the US. California cases will be going exponential in the coming weeks. Up and down the west coast and Las Vegas won't escape.

None of this looks promising.

guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by guest »

Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Just about everything in Wal Mart is from China. Think about that as you walk down the isles. Consider the pharmacy section with all the prescription and over-the-counter drugs, personal hygiene, linens, all the plastic containers, auto parts, tools, soap, cleaning products, paper products, etc. Now consider those shelves getting empty. Same goes for dozens of other stores.
Well, it that case, I'm glad I splurged on that expensive bedding at the Zara Home store. Nothing like a soft white duvet to keep the zombies away.
It sound like the perfect love nest to enjoy your last days.
I bet you're a riot in Sunday school.

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