Generational Dynamics World View News

[richard5za]

22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu

Why the Covid-19 crisis won't be over by summer

Bangladesh, Greece, Syria, Yemen, Venezuela, Mumbai, Lagos

John, I agree the this pandemic won't be over by summer. However how long?
I came across information that says the 1918 flu started January 1918 and ended December 1920 - that's 3 years!

[Guest]

The America of 1918 was a very different country from the America of today...

Just saying.

[Guest]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcoYLH50lqM

Double Bear Market, Crime Wave, Interactive U - March 20, 2020

[FishbellykanakaDude]

What makes this image iconic?


..is this a "holy shit!" moment captured on "film", or what?

[John]

** 22-Mar-2020 World View: Advice

Advice from experts: Stay away from people.

People, people who don't need people,
Are the LUCKIEST PEOPLE in the world.
We're children, needing other children,
But then letting our grown-up experts,
Crush all the need inside,
Acting more like scared rabbits than children.

(After Barbra Streisand)

[John]

Stop.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Stop.

Start.


..not sure where this game is going, but..... <chuckle!>

[FishbellykanakaDude]

** 22-Mar-2020 World View: Advice

Advice from experts: Stay away from people.

People, people who don't need people,
Are the LUCKIEST PEOPLE in the world.
We're children, needing other children,
But then letting our grown-up experts,
Crush all the need inside,
Acting more like scared rabbits than children.

(After Barbra Streisand)

Here's a game to play in "public" (which your'e NOT supposed to go out into) if you DO NEED to go out...

Reference list:
one two three FOUR FIVE six seven eight NINE ten ELEVEN TWELVE THIRTEEN FOURTEEN fifteen sixteen seventeen EIGHTEEN NINETEEN TWENTY THIRTY

"Game":
Only go out on the following days (not including emergencies) while dressed up as a zombie, while wearing a mask and gloves (duh!), on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays where the number of letters in the "second" (or only) word of the NUMBER of the day of the month (in English) is even.

That would be 4, 5, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 18, 19, 20, 24, 25, 29, 30.

So, this month (March) would have zombie days (after the 22nd) on: Wed 25th and Mon 30th
..April zombie days would be: Mon 13th, Mon 20th, Fri 24th and Wed 29th

This CAN be turned into a drinking game,.. 'though I'm not sure how,.. and it would probably be ill advised.

Let's make the pseudo-apocalypse FUN*....!

*DISCLAIMER: Any interactions with your local authorities are the responsibility of the player. Side effects can include pummeling by the local populace, rash, being burned at the stake, head shots inflicted by skilled marksmen, arrest, imprisonment, diarrhea, and/or death in veritably any combination whatsoever.


Whatcha think...!!?

[Navigator]

John,

Just read your latest article on the main site. Very thoughtful as always. Glad you take the time to research and deeply think about an issue before writing about it.

I agree that this virus and its effects are eerily similar to the Spanish flu. I am sure I posted something to that effect a couple of weeks ago.

I believe that everyone will be exposed to the current WuHu flu, just as everyone at the time was exposed to the Spanish flu. I think that the only thing the lockdowns will do in relation to the WuHu is slow down the infection rate.

If you believe a cure or vaccine is coming, I guess you would not want to get exposed to it until after the cure or vaccine is available. However, I believe this is wishful thinking. I think we will all be exposed by then.

One of the big differences between now and the Spanish flu period is the cost of medical care. Back then, it wasn't that much. Now it is astronomical. The 2019 rates of health care expenditure were already destroying the economy. We cannot afford putting 5-10% of the country into an ICU. Plus these "aid" packages are just contributing to the global debt bomb that is already in place.

The current health insurance setup cannot weather this. The insurance companies will all go bankrupt. Then no-one will have health insurance. Which will probably lead to health care nationalization, which will lead to even worse growth to debt and serious degradation of health care standards.

At some point, you do have do do a cost benefit analysis. If someone produces a million worth of value during their lifetime, but uses ten million worth of health care, you can absorb that so long as this is an abnormality. You cannot absorb this cost if it is common (and 10% of the population being in a similar situation would make it common). What can and what should a society afford?

I hope the death rates are not as high as the Spanish flu. I think they will be along the lines of the Diamond Princess for the Western World. On the ship there were about 3700 passengers and crew. ALL were exposed (due to the food handlers having it). About 700 contracted the disease. Of those, about half quickly recovered. And only 7 have died. But I would venture that any of the serious cases got the best medical care Japan could provide, which is a pretty high standard.

[John]

** 22-Mar-2020 World View: Cost-Benefit Analysis

> One of the big differences between now and the Spanish flu period
> is the cost of medical care. Back then, it wasn't that much. Now
> it is astronomical. The 2019 rates of health care expenditure were
> already destroying the economy. We cannot afford putting 5-10% of
> the country into an ICU. Plus these "aid" packages are just
> contributing to the global debt bomb that is already in place.

> The current health insurance setup cannot weather this. The
> insurance companies will all go bankrupt. Then no-one will have
> health insurance. Which will probably lead to health care
> nationalization, which will lead to even worse growth to debt and
> serious degradation of health care standards.

> At some point, you do have do do a cost benefit analysis. If
> someone produces a million worth of value during their lifetime,
> but uses ten million worth of health care, you can absorb that so
> long as this is an abnormality. You cannot absorb this cost if it
> is common (and 10% of the population being in a similar situation
> would make it common). What can and what should a society
> afford?

It doesn't make any difference what the cost of medical care was then
or is now. As I wrote in the article, there will be two million
deaths in America. That translates to about eight million
hospitalizations. The medical industry -- the hospitals and the
insurance companies -- will be overwhelmed. With limited resources
spread over eight million patients, the cost per patient will be close
to zero. Beyond that, a cost-benefit analysis is meaningless.