Generational Dynamics World View News

[Cool Breeze]

John, there are many Americans who understand that Russia isn't a US enemy, but sadly you are correct the general propaganda for some time has been that Russia is evil (said by both politicians and media pundits, left or right leaning) ... until the last couple of years where the discernment that China truly is the problem (and Russia blame is a hoax) is generally held by those who have sniffed out the traitorous leftist movements, ie the Democrat party. Still, only Tucker Carlson will tell you (unlike guys like O'Reilly or Hannity) that Russia isn't an issue, and that's because he and his staff read forums that guys like me go to.

Moving along to the economics part of this, do you still hold that deflation is how the economic collapse will start? Insolvency phase? And then possibly the direct money printing? It seems to me that when Trump wins the election upcoming, state pensions hoping for a Fed bailout are going to be in REAL big trouble.

[John]

** 07-Oct-2020 World View: The US Constitution and Confucianism

> If one is to compare the United States to all the empires of the
> past, then the United States is now impressive influence, power,
> stability, and prosperity. The United States may not have be an
> empire in the sense of having a monarch claiming to be more than a
> king. Call it (at best) an Empire of Liberty. Its territorial
> expansion effectively ended about 120 years ago. It has a high
> win-loss record. Aggressive powers that have thought the Unite
> States soft and decadent find themselves facing an
> exhaust-and-kill strategy. If it finds its own weakness it tends
> to self-correct.

> The President of the United States is rarely around long enough to
> become a doddering old man or to develop the madness of absolute
> power. Competitve elections prove the right way to deal with
> politicians becoming too big for their breeches.

My research has led me to believe that a lot of the credit for the
impressive stability of the United States has to do with the
brilliance of the US Constitution. For my Iran book, I traced the
history of national constitutions, leading to Iran's Constitutional
Revolution in the 1900s decade, and I really began to grasp how
brilliant the US Constitution is. Thanks to the Constitution, the US
has survived multiple "constitutional crises," as well as the Civil
War and other wars, and is still a functioning constitutional
democracy.

In another message you refer to Trump as "despotic," which is the
usual idiotic silliness from people like you who hate the 63 million
Tea Partiers and Trump supporters. Trump has stayed well within the
lines of the US Constitution, including court decisions, so he isn't
"despotic" at all. But, thanks to the Constitution, he's survived the
huge Russia hoax, the special prosecutor hoax, the impeachment hoax,
and so forth. As he himself has pointed out, he must be the most
honest and effective politician in the history of the world to have
survived all that.

Just yesterday, the handwritten notes of the sleazy John Brennan were
released, proving that Obama was in on the illegal spying and hoaxes.
This is actually a big bombshell, but you wouldn't have a clue about
that, since CNN carefully avoids reporting news like that to people
like you, lest you get confused about whom to hate. Better for you to
stay completely in the dark.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/06/br ... operation/

So this year the Democrats are resorting to fascist antifa-blm
violence in cities across the country, threats to overwhelm the
election with mail-in ballots, threats to pack the Supreme Court, and
anything else they can do to destroy the Constitutional government
that has protected the loathsome Tea Partiers from the Democrats.

Look what's happening this week in Kyrgyzstan. One side sabotaged the
election, just as the Democrats are trying to do here, but
Kyrgyzstan's constitution doesn't have the checks and balances of the
US Constitution, and the government is in collapse, and the election
will have to be rerun. It's a great lesson.

The US Constitution has numerous checks and balances designed to make
sure that elections produce a result. These include the Electoral
College and various rules to be applied if there's no election result.
My point is that by January or February of next year, I expect that
the Constitutional process will produce a president to take office.
Maybe it will be Trump, maybe it will be Biden. But there will be a
president. That's what I mean by "impressive stability." There are
few, if any, other countries in the world that could say the same
thing.

> ** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Rise and fall of empires

> Getting back to the original subject, what I call the "Western
> Civilization Empire," starting from ancient Athens and Crete, has
> succeeded because it's based on the core principle of Democracy.
> It has spawned sub-empires over the centuries, but in one form or
> another this empire will continue to lead the world, because only
> Democracy is capable of governing empires.

> The problem with this theory is that Eastern civilization was more
> advanced from the fall of the Roman Empire to the Renaissance.
> Democracy is really only an advantage in the gunpowder age, when
> you win wars with large numbers of minimally armed troops that you
> only trust because they have a stake in your government.

> That's going to change in the next century or so as war shifts to
> nuclear weapons.

This is a new area of analysis for me, following on my research on
China and Vietnam. I've found it appalling that the CCP has made one
incredibly stupid decision after another since Mao came to power, and
you have to wonder why that keeps happening. But now I see the same
kind of stupidity taking place historically in Vietnam's Confucian
governments, and I realize that it's Confucianism that's a cancer that
causes the repeated destruction and self-destruction of these
governments.

The contrast is between the cancer of Confucianism and the brilliance
of the US Constitution, with its system of checks and balances that
prevents things similar to the "Great Leap Forward" in America. I
used the word "Democracy" because the Chinese Communists themselves
use the word democracy as the ideological evil whose only purpose is
to destroy the CCP -- i.e., Chinese Confucianism. But there are so
many destructive things about Chinese Confucianism that a better
contrast will have to be found. What I need is a word that captures
the essence of the Constitution's system of checks and balances as a
contrast to Confucianism. The word "democracy" is close, but not
quite right.

[Jeepdinger]

@John

I think there isn't a word to describe the entirety of what we have as a Constitutional Republic. Perhaps "Republicanism" or "constitutional republicanism". As we are the only government in the world with this exact system, it is unique and I don't think we have a word for this. I'd love to learn that it exists.

I just call it "Murica".

[Cool Breeze]

Wow, great posts. Well done, gentlemen.

John, do you see the major economic problems coming before the start of whatever WWIII-type conflict? Or that the start of the war causes inflation, as noted by historian Niall Ferguson, as a usual case in the "search for inflation"?

[FullMoon]

The nations of the world should "see each other as members of the same big family, pursue win-win cooperation, rise above ideological disputes, and avoid falling into the trap of a clash of civilizations," Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a recorded address to the UN recently.
2 weeks of sorties crossing into Taiwanese airspace...

[John]

** 07-Oct-2020 World View: Democracies and useful idiots

> I think there isn't a word to describe the entirety of what we
> have as a Constitutional Republic. Perhaps "Republicanism" or
> "constitutional republicanism". As we are the only government in
> the world with this exact system, it is unique and I don't think
> we have a word for this. I'd love to learn that it exists.

> I just call it "Murica".

That's an interesting idea, but few people even know what a Republic
is, or that the US is a Republic (not a Democracy), or that the
Constitution requires each state to have a "Republican form of
government."

> John, do you see the major economic problems coming before the
> start of whatever WWIII-type conflict? Or that the start of the
> war causes inflation, as noted by historian Niall Ferguson, as a
> usual case in the "search for inflation"?

A financial crisis can cause a war, and a war can trigger a financial
crisis. They can occur in either order.

It's possible that the war will begin with something huge -- a massive
Chinese missile attack or a massive deflationary financial crisis.

But in my opinion, the most likely way the war will start will be with
something small -- something in the Mideast, or one of China's 21
border conflicts, or a small nation or company unable to pay its
debts, triggering a chain reaction of bankruptcies.

> The nations of the world should "see each other as members of the
> same big family, pursue win-win cooperation, rise above
> ideological disputes, and avoid falling into the trap of a clash
> of civilizations," Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a recorded
> address to the UN recently. 2 weeks of sorties crossing into
> Taiwanese airspace...

Yeah this is the typical Communist charm offensive, or Hitler's "peace
in our time." The American press and most politicians always fall for
this stuff -- hence the phrase "useful idiot."

[Guest]

** 07-Oct-2020 World View: Democracies and useful idiots

> I think there isn't a word to describe the entirety of what we
> have as a Constitutional Republic. Perhaps "Republicanism" or
> "constitutional republicanism". As we are the only government in
> the world with this exact system, it is unique and I don't think
> we have a word for this. I'd love to learn that it exists.

> I just call it "Murica".

That's an interesting idea, but few people even know what a Republic
is, or that the US is a Republic (not a Democracy), or that the
Constitution requires each state to have a "Republican form of
government."

> John, do you see the major economic problems coming before the
> start of whatever WWIII-type conflict? Or that the start of the
> war causes inflation, as noted by historian Niall Ferguson, as a
> usual case in the "search for inflation"?

A financial crisis can cause a war, and a war can trigger a financial
crisis. They can occur in either order.

It's possible that the war will begin with something huge -- a massive
Chinese missile attack or a massive deflationary financial crisis.

But in my opinion, the most likely way the war will start will be with
something small -- something in the Mideast, or one of China's 21
border conflicts, or a small nation or company unable to pay its
debts, triggering a chain reaction of bankruptcies.

> The nations of the world should "see each other as members of the
> same big family, pursue win-win cooperation, rise above
> ideological disputes, and avoid falling into the trap of a clash
> of civilizations," Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a recorded
> address to the UN recently. 2 weeks of sorties crossing into
> Taiwanese airspace...

Yeah this is the typical Communist charm offensive, or Hitler's "peace
in our time." The American press and most politicians always fall for
this stuff -- hence the phrase "useful idiot."

How can Navigator (Who I believe is extremely intelligent) believe that we are 5, 20, or 15 years away from world war? I would not be surprised if we had a war in Asia by the end of the year.

[Guest that matters]

"There is no fix for a 70 IQ and no impulse control."

[Cool Breeze]

Yes, it seems that the insolvency phase of things starts next year when we see an attempt to a return to normalcy (not that the globalists want that, and the peons that listen to them also don't have enough courage to tell them to F off with all of this mask and covid hysteria). What I have written at other places is amusing, since I also thought the demise of certain states and pensions is on the brink, yet they still can push them off. The shutdowns basically show that they accelerated an untenable situation, but that likely without their stupidity and greed (they think a Fed bailout is possible and coming) they could have kicked the can a few more years - beyond what all of us thought. Yes, NY, NJ, IL/Chicago, etc. all did this. And if you listen to their governors or mayors you'll see they will never be the same without money that the Feds won't pop for. They will drastically cut services and add to the demoralization; this on the back end of letting BLM rioters and other "protestors" shut down their downtown areas and lose a huge tax base for a decade forward.

Yes, anything can happen next year but usually the point is, when you think something is going to happen, take your time frame and multiply it by at least 3. I think that's why Navi sees it the way he does. It's the same thing in the econ world, guys like Peter Schiff have been claiming (another) collapse since he first predicted a crisis in 2006, and it's already 15 years later. He got the first one right, and he'll be right again eventually (who wouldn't be) but it'll be for the wrong reasons.

[Navigator]

How can Navigator (Who I believe is extremely intelligent) believe that we are 5, 20, or 15 years away from world war? I would not be surprised if we had a war in Asia by the end of the year.

I can assure you that I do not think it is that far away. My personal estimation is less than a year, but it might be two.

I am personally convinced that war will follow some kind of political upheaval in the United States. This could be due to election results or due to an economic implosion, either of which are highly likely.

Also, wanted to chime in on what John has been saying about the US Constitution. Frankly, I believe that God arranged for such selfless people to be together, in positions of influence, to effect the revolution, and then work together to create the constitution.

Here is a great link on the background and sacrifices made by the founding fathers.

https://www.familylife.com/articles/top ... g-fathers/

And, as John points out, the vast majority are clueless about the fact that we live in a REPUBLIC, not a "one person one vote" democracy. The founders never intended for mob rule, which is what a democracy turns into. Instead the REPUBLIC was set up to protect minorities, small states and their interests, and to ensure that "level heads" (what congress was intended to be) would prevail.

A major blow to the Republic was the 17th amendment. This is when Senators, who had been chosen by state legislatures, were instead directly elected. This was NEVER intended. You should read what Elihu Root, a great American of the time, said and wrote about this.

This amendment was passed around the same time that the Federal Reserve Bank was set up and Income Tax started. I frequently see posted here people blaming the Baby Boom generation for what is happening. Most of what we are going thru is the culmination of things set in motion eighty to a hundred years or so ago. Each generation has of course added to mess, but you can go back to these 3 big ones (17th amendment, Fed Reserve, Income Tax) when things really were set in motion.

BTW, without the 17th amendment, I figured there would have been close to 70 republican senators (due to that many states with republican controlled legislatures) during the early part of Trump's presidency. With such a number, they could have completely changed the current legal system by wholesale impeachment of federal judges trying to "legislate from the bench".