Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 193
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

John wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:55 am
** 01-Dec-2020 World View: Peter Turchin
JCP wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:20 am
> https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... re/616993/

> "The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse

> A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the
> rise and fall of societies. He has bad news."

> This guy seems to be copying you, John.
Peter Turchin hates Generational Dynamics. If you suggest that he's
copying me, he might send someone out to cancel you.
What's funny is that I read that article last week. He says similar things to gen-dyn, but then just gives a blanket "2020s are going to be bad".

Well no shit sherlock. Even saying that 5 years ago isn't a big deal, because of selection or recall bias (no one would remember if he were wrong, it'd be just another 15 minute waste of time by the Atlantic). John makes very specific calls even if he can't make particular timing, which of course is the near impossible part. But this guy, while he had some interesting ideas along with the tough 2020s (I'll give him some credit), said basically nothing we didn't already know or could guess. It's not like there hasn't been rampant economic sensationalism and otherwise after 2008 to give us some kind of hint.

Why would you say he's going to cancel anyone, though, John? :D

Higgenbotham
Posts: 5615
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:55 am
** 01-Dec-2020 World View: Peter Turchin
JCP wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:20 am
> https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... re/616993/

> "The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse

> A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the
> rise and fall of societies. He has bad news."

> This guy seems to be copying you, John.
Peter Turchin hates Generational Dynamics. If you suggest that he's
copying me, he might send someone out to cancel you.
Turchin says the main problem is overproduction of elites - too many wannabe elites for the roles available, leading to infighting amongst the elites.

In 2013, I quoted from an interview with Mexican billionaire Hugo Salinas Price where he talked about the problem of elites.

http://www.gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic ... nas#p20530

Salinas Price says that the main problem is not really the overproduction of elites, it's that the systems put into place to produce large numbers of elites has resulted in leadership that doesn't know what they're doing, comparable to monkeys flying 747s.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

DaKardii
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:11 pm
Turchin says the main problem is overproduction of elites - too many wannabe elites for the roles available, leading to infighting amongst the elites.
I 100% agree with that statement. And that is exactly why I refuse to recognize the current political divide as being "globalist vs. nationalist" in nature. What's really going on (in my humble opinion) is that the powers that be are turning against each other and adopting nationalistic tendencies as a means rather than an end.

In some ways, it reminds me of Europe immediately before World War I. Recall that the monarchies were all interrelated in one way or another, but that didn't stop war from happening.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Infowars is now reporting on an SEC investigation into Dominion Voting Systems, alleging the company was the recipient of $400 million in laundered money from China through Swiss banks. This report was referenced on The Gateway Pundit in their own article on the topic. Attorney Lin Wood is now stating Trump should declare "limited martial law" in response to throw out the fraudulent 2020 election.
https://www.infowars.com/posts/watch-li ... iday-fear/
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/1 ... overnment/

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 01-Dec-2020 World View: Expert punditry
Cool Breeze wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:01 pm
> Why would you say he's going to cancel anyone, though, John? :D
>
It was hyperbole. I'm sure he wouldn't hurt a flea.

In 2004, I sent Peter Turchin my book, and I met with him at UConn.
He was very generous with his time, and we had a long discussion, but
the net was that he blew me off because I wasn't following the strict
narrative in the Fourth Turning book, even though that book contains a
number of errors that I corrected. Subsequent e-mail discussions
didn't go well, so I have little respect for Turchin. In particular,
his "Cliodynamics" is heavily dependent on cherry-picking.

Turchin is part of the "Fourth Turning community" that's heavily
committed to the Democrats, and considers any FT predictions as being
in support of the Democrats. This means two things. First, it means
that the FT predictions are completely meaningless, and ironically the
entire FT theory has been effectively abandoned by the FT community.
Second, it means that they hate me and Generational Dynamics.

I've been in the Fourth Turning forum since 2003, and I still am, and
I make contributions. Most of the other members are totally in the
loony left, and I frequently point out to them that the FT forum is a
generational theory forum, and I'm the only member of the forum who
still considers generational theory to be valid. To me, this is a
matter of some amusement.

Today, there are a lot of people who see the signs that "the 2020s are
going to be bad." The same thing was true in 1929. From Kenneth
Galbraith's book, The Great Crash - 1929:
> "Chapter 11 - Something should be Done?

> Purely in retrospect it is easy to see how 1929 was destined to be
> a year to remember. This was not because Mr. Hoover was soon to
> become President and had inimical intentions toward the market.
> Those intentions developed at least partly in retrospect. Nor was
> it because men of wisdom could tell that a depression was overdue.
> No one, wise or unwise, knew or now knows when depressions are due
> or overdue.

> Rather, it was simply that a roaring boom was in progress in the
> stock market and, like all booms, it had to end. On the first of
> January of 1929, as a simple matter of probability, it was most
> likely that the boom would end before the year was out, with a
> diminishing chance that it would end in any given year thereafter.
> When prices stopped rising -- when the supply of people who were
> buying for an increase was exhausted -- then ownership on margin
> would become meaningless and everyone would want to sell. The
> market wouldn't level out; it would fall precipitately.

> All this being so, the position of the people who had at least
> nominal responsibility for what was going on was a complex one.
> One of the oldest puzzles of politics is who is to regulate the
> regulators. But an equally baffling problem, which has never
> received the attention it deserves, is who is to make wise those
> who are required to have wisdom.

> Some of those in positions of authority wanted the boom to
> continue. They were making money out of it, and they may have had
> an intimation of personal disaster which awaited them when the
> boom came to an end. But there were also some who saw, however
> dimly, that a wild speculation was in progress and that something
> should be done. For these people, however, every proposal to act
> raised the same intractable problem. The consequences of
> successful action seemed almost as terrible as the consequences of
> inaction, and they could be more horrible for those who took the
> action.

> A bubble can easily be punctured. But to incise it with a needle
> so that it subsides gradually is a task of no small delicacy.
> Among those who sensed what was happening in early 1929, there was
> some hope but no confidence that the boom could be made to
> subside. The real choice was between an immediate and
> deliberately engineered collapse and a more serious disaster later
> on. Someone would certainly be blamed for the ultimate collapse
> when it came. There was no question whatever as to who would be
> blamed should the boom be deliberately deflated. (For nearly a
> decade the Federal Reserve authorities had been denying their
> responsibility for the deflation of 1920-21.) The eventual
> disaster also had the inestimable advantage of allowing a few more
> days, weeks, months of life. One may doubt if at any time in
> early 1929 the problem was ever framed in terms of quite such
> stark alternatives. But however disguised or evaded, these were
> the choices which haunted every serious conference on what to do
> about the market."
Galbraith's remarks apply equally today. People who are benefiting
massively from the situation ("the élites") aren't going to say
anything, because they want to keep benefiting. People who foresee
the disaster and who would like to fix the problem realize that they
can't do so without bringing about the disaster they'd like to prevent
-- and getting blamed for it. People like me (the Cassandras) are
hated by both groups.

People like Turchin can say "the 2020s will be bad" or "we'll have war
with China before 2050" or a similar example of expert punditry that
means that if something bad happens then you can claim credit, but if
nothing bad happens you can say it's still coming.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 193
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

Johnny boy is catching fire. Another good post.

I am curious about your statement that these guys are committed to the Democrats, though. And I know you don't mince words, so this should be fun. Do you believe Howe and Strauss were/are as well? I wouldn't be surprised, though I don't know him except for a few presentations here and there, but Howe looks like that Jamie character from the progressive commercials, only 30 years older.

What do you think the FT crowd thinks will happen now? Do you think Howe is even really saying anything? I've found his historical analysis interesting, but that's just because I hadn't been introduced to it as formally in the past. As you said, however, he only analyzed the USA and not the world. In that sense I agree, he is missing out on quite a lot of X factors that seem pretty relevant as to what might happen this time.

Thanks for the Galbraith quote. Good stuff.

See John? I'm on your side. ;)

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

I'm not your boy.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 12:39 am
I'm not your boy.
Maybe you're someone's huckleberry?

Cool Breeze
Posts: 193
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

Just trying to be cool, and there's the salt.

Eh, moving on.

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