Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 17-Sep-2020 World View: Orthodox Amusement

> I find dire predictions and sites like this amusing, because I
> believe structurally that there are great problems too, but like
> the economy, it seems everyone predicts calamites for years or
> decades and then spends even more years explaining why "It hasn't
> happened yet."

I'm glad that we're amusing you. I'll try to throw in some
additional jokes here and there, to add to the entertainment.

But hey, I guess you're right. There'll never be another war, and the
stock market will go up forever. I guess I'd better shut down the
site.

> John, we spoke (wrote) past each other here, but please clarify,
> do you have knowledge of the Orthodox faith? I'm uncertain due to
> the way that you responded; just an honest question. I ask because
> you seem to think that people denying the truth of the world are
> the same with those who love life/goodness/truth/virtue, the
> eternal things, which are of course both God and are of God. Every
> religion and ideology is the same? That's an odd thing for a
> learned man to say, first because they are so objectively
> different even when one doesn't consider (the most important part)
> their metaphysical qualities.

> You seem to unfortunately conclude that all evil or deceived
> "ideologies" or "belief systems" are the same. Well, yes, of
> course they share many sad characteristics. That doesn't mean
> anything other than that in itself --- what's more, you presuppose
> that mental illness is bad (of course) and that the alternative is
> good, which gets at the heart of my real point.

I was raised as Greek Orthodox, but have only general knowledge of
Orthodox theology beyond general Christian theology.

You can say that dogs and cats are profoundly different, but
they share a lot of characteristics in common -- they're both
animals, they both provide companionship and comfort to humans. Those
are good things. However, they're both dumber than a bag of hammers,
compared to (most) humans.

So dogs and cats are profoundly different, but they have a lot in
common, both good and bad. The same is true of religions.

All religions have characteristics in common -- they provide a
framework for day to day living, they provide comfort and guidance in
difficult times, and so forth. But they all have a "jealous god,"
they all refer to people of other religions as some variation of
"infidels," and they all, at times in their history, committed
genocide and ethnic/religious cleansing on populations of other
faiths. (This is clearly documented in the Old Testament, for
example.)

Furthermore, there are a few major religions in the world, and dozens
of minor religions, and they largely contradict each other in
important ways. This is a simple observation, and it has the
following logical consequence: There is at most one true religion.

So when you say, "you seem to think that people denying the truth of
the world are the same with those who love life/goodness/truth/virtue,
the eternal things, which are of course both God and are of God," I
really have no idea what you're talking about. What is truth? Was
Jesus a man or a god or both? There are billions of people whose
"truth" contradicts Christians. Are Jews really going to hell? There
are billions of people who say they will. And what is virtue? Is
it virtuous to have two wives, or is it more virtuous to leave a
single woman unattached in society at war where she might well
be raped with impunity?

There's one more thing that all religions have in common: A believer
can always find a way within the religion to justify any action.

The examples that I gave -- the Nazis kill the Jews or Maduro destroys
Venezuela or Lori Lightfoot destroys Chicao or Ted Wheeler destroys
Portland -- can all be justified by religion. That's a kind of mental
illness. And that's what I meant.

[John]

** 17-Sep-2020 World View: Persecution in South Vietnam

I received the following e-mail message from a Vietnamese web site
reader, in response to my article on Vietnam:

> "I have read the article and to be honest, you've
> probably done more research and have a broader and more in depth
> understanding of Vietnam and its history than I. But intuitively
> I believe what is written is true. My family is from South
> Vietnam, close to Saigon, and my family follows Buddhist
> traditions, however, not devoutly, almost as if they've had to
> hide it which I never understood. But now makes sense as it
> wasn't from shame but could be from possible persecution. I also
> definitely agree with other aspects of separation between North
> and South Vietnamese cultures as I believe my parents do not see
> Vietnam as their homeland anymore, or if they do, they almost view
> it as still being occupied by foreign invaders if that makes
> sense, probably one of the reasons they've never gone
> back."

One thing I've noticed pretty consistently in developing Generational
Dynamics is that people who grow up after a generational crisis war
know almost nothing about it, except the bare facts. Their parents
just don't want to talk about it. In developing Generational Dynamics
I've been told by many people that their parents never talk about what
happened during WW II. I attribute this to the fact that the
atrocities that were committed (on both sides) are best forgotten.

The result is a gaping hole in the knowledge that people have about
their own countries. And of course this is one reason that there's a
new crisis war several decades later, when the people with the gaping
hole are running the world.

Here's another example: I just saw on al-Jazeera a report of some
horrific human rights abuses in Burundi. They had video of a poor guy
who was thrown into a pit who was screaming for help while security
forces looked on. The report talks in terms of "security forces" and
"political opponents" and so forth, never once mentioning that the
government is run by Hutus and the "political opponents" are all
Tutsis, and that the violence is a consequence of the 1994 Rwanda
genocide. Why is that fact, which is the core reason for the human
rights abuses in Burundi, completely unmentioned and ignored? Why are
the important facts buried, and leaving some bland mealy-mouthed
political explanation behind as the only reason given.

Perhaps a good way to explain it is "dirty laundry." There's plenty
of dirty laundry left over from a generational crisis war, and the
winners, the loses, the media, the trolls, the deniers, the
collaborators, and the various international politicians all cooperate
to hide the dirty laundry. This is unfortunate, because the only way
that there's any hope to prevent a new generational crisis war is for
the dirty laundry from the last one to be well known by the public.
Instead, they know almost nothing.

So I could modify ‎George Santayana's famous saying as follows: "Those
who cannot remember the dirty laundry of the past are
condemned to repeat it."

I could not have written that article on Vietnam until recently. The
bare facts of Vietnam's history -- domination by China, invasion by
French, America's defeat in the "Vietnam war" -- are well known, but
beyond those facts, almost all other facts in the narrative of that
article had to be dug out from the 350 or so sources that I've been
reading. For example, the reconstruction of the Tay-Son rebellion
alone required a dozen sources, with each source describing a
different angle, but avoiding dirty laundry mentioned in another
source.

So I appreciate the comment from the web site reader, telling me what
he does not know, because what he does not know is almost more
important than what he does know.

** 16-Sep-20 World View -- Economic powerhouse Vietnam scrambles to recover from pandemic setbacks
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200916

[DaKardii]

John, how do you think Brexit will affect the WWIII alignments in Europe?

I personally believe that Germany and the UK will be on opposing sides, and France could go either way.

Since the end of the Franco-Prussian war in 1871, France and the UK have worked closely together to prevent a unified Germany from dominating the European continent. This common goal was the central reason why they were allies in both World Wars, despite being historic enemies. It was also the central reason why they both opposed German re-unification in 1990, despite the US supporting it. Since 1990, they have been trying to accommodate Germany while also serving as soft counterbalances against it.

However, France hasn't always been so committed to counterbalancing Germany. Many French sympathize with Germany because they would prefer Europe to be dominated by a continental power (such as France and Germany), as opposed to a non-continental power (such as Russia, the UK, and the US). This sentiment may have been the central reason why many French willingly collaborated with Germany during WWII, and it was definitely the central reason why France was initially strongly opposed to the UK joining the EU in the first place.

With Brexit completed, tensions are starting to rise between the EU and the UK over post-Brexit trade arrangements. These disagreements have the potential to escalate into territorial disputes between the UK and the EU members bordering it, especially Ireland. Should that happen, Germany could use these disputes as a pretext to promote both further European integration and the creation of a "European Army" that would effectively serve as a way around the post-WWII restrictions on German rearmament. Because both the UK and most of Western Europe are in a crisis era, odds are such escalations will indeed occur.

At this point, France will face a serious dilemma. On one hand, it supports further European integration and the formation of a "European Army" just as much, if not more than Germany does. But on the other hand, such developments would significantly increase the stakes of a future unbalancing of the current continental co-hegemony existing between the two countries. France probably recalls that the last time Germany was forced to share hegemony with another continental power (Austria) in a confederate union (the German Confederation), the unbalancing of that co-hegemony led to war. Germany decisively won that war within six weeks, and Austria's loss of that war caused it to undergo a slow decline that led to the complete collapse of its empire within three generations. France obviously does not want to meet the same fate as Austria. So, what does it do in this situation?

[Guest]

It is becoming difficult to be optimistic about the future. As events unfold the growing opinion is being battered around that something sinister is happening beneath the surface. The uneasy feeling that things will get far worse is being heightened by the suggestion the economy and society is being undermined by design.

[utahbob]

John,

I have been away for a while, but here is some good news. I know most people will pour cold water on it, but even the discussion of it is progress: http://www.algemeiner.com/2020/09/06/im ... ay-sermon/

Here is one lady who found the smoking gun and put it on the table:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Lq3_rs ... e=emb_logo

Her paper: https://zenodo.org/record/4028830#.X2DFr2hKiUn

[Guest]

We live in an age where every loser and misfit can declare themselves judge, jury and executioner of the society in which they live, and will meet little resistance and even support.

[guest]

It is becoming difficult to be optimistic about the future. As events unfold the growing opinion is being battered around that something sinister is happening beneath the surface. The uneasy feeling that things will get far worse is being heightened by the suggestion the economy and society is being undermined by design.

How could it possibly be any worse...... right?

[Buy gold]

It is becoming difficult to be optimistic about the future. As events unfold the growing opinion is being battered around that something sinister is happening beneath the surface. The uneasy feeling that things will get far worse is being heightened by the suggestion the economy and society is being undermined by design.

How could it possibly be any worse...... right?

You had to go and ask that. God just said "hold my beer."

[JJ333]

We stepped onto an old path that still leads to the same place.

1920s/2000s – neoclassical economics, high inequality, high banker pay, low regulation, low taxes for the wealthy, robber barons (CEOs), reckless bankers, globalisation phase

1929/2008 – Wall Street crash

1930s/2010s – Global recession, currency wars, trade wars, austerity, rising nationalism and extremism

1940s – World war.

We forgot we had been down that path before.



It does get worse, look where we are going.

[guest]

China needs to stop provoking Taiwan. Taiwan does not wish to unite with Mainland China, whose government is a totalitarian dictatorship.