Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

( Are the Japanese considered the "Jews" of Asia? )
Absolutely not. The Chinese are the 'Jews' of Asia. Here in lies the problem with arm chair types like you: you don't know what you are talking about. Ethnic Chinese live in and often dominate the economies of Asian countries, to the point of being despised. I don't know how many would actually support the Red Chinese government. That's an open question.


John is spot on in his analysis of Asia.

--A guest from Seoul

zzazz

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by zzazz »

CH86>>"...While Modern nukes are a lot bigger than those used in 1945, they are much smaller in yield than nukes were during the cold war...."
Actually with Trump tearing up treaties right and left we can expect both more and bigger weapons when the war occurs.

zzazz

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by zzazz »

If as many GD posts suggest, the next big war is the genocidal kind, then analyses of the aftermath should account for the fact that in a genocidal war the targeting will be different. Specifically, instead of having the bulk of the nukes incoming to North America targeting missile silos located in the desolate areas near the Dakota bad lands they will instead target cities, nuclear reactors, spent nuclear fuel storage depots, and major dams. It is true that the most dangerous radiotelephones quickly decay out of spent nuclear fuel, but the resulting radiation is still at least twice as bad as it would have been.

Waring parties will immediately lose the ability to manufacture new nukes as well as any other modern weapon, so there will be weapon hoarding, which in turn means that the destruction will be drawn out, perhaps over decades as hoarded weapons are gradually used to wipe out the enemy's attempts to reorganize a civilization.

josa0512
Posts: 46
Joined: Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:56 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by josa0512 »

In the next major war, I'm assuming that the Scandinavian nations will be our allies but honestly, will their militaries provide any meaningful assistance?
The Norwegian Navy just sunk its most expensive and technologically advanced military naval vessel through sheer incompetence.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02- ... -shipwreck

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 10-Feb-2019 China releases video of Uigher singer, claiming it proves that he's alive

Yesterday, I posted a story about Turkey's harsh condemnation of
China's concentration camps in East Turkistan (Xinjiang provice),
where over a million ethnic Uighurs are allegedly being subjected to
beatings, torture, rape and other atrocities before they are executed
and sent to the new crematoria.

The statement was out of character for Turkey, but it was triggered by
the the reported death from torture of Abdurehim Heyit, a formerly
very popular Uighur singer and musician, who was once venerated across
China.

So on Sunday, China released video on China Radio International's
Turkish-language service, showing Heyit sitting in a chair, happy and
grinning. They claim that this proves that Keyit is alive and happy,
and being happily "re-educated."

Image

In addition to becoming increasingly sleazy and ghoulish, the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) is becoming stupider by the day if they
think that anyone believes that this proves that Heyit
is still alive.

These are the people planning to launch a nuclear war against
the world. Let's hope that their massive stupidity continues
to grow.



https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpspr ... 592774.jpg

--- Related:

*** 9-Feb-2019 Turkey condemns China's Uighur 'concentration camps,' then backs down
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 985#p43985

CH86
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by CH86 »

JohnX, I am going to state another clear position here: If China or Russia is the enemy in the 4T Crisis War; that means that 9/11 could NOT have been the catalyst of the the 4T crisis era. That means that America was still in a generational Unraveling Mood until around 2011 with the start of Arab Spring and direct tensions with Russia and China, if the crisis war enemy is going to be China (or Russia). During the last crisis war (WW2) the international crisis started in 1931 with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria, after that until 1945 the enemy was always Germany/Japan/Fascism, communism did emerge as an enemy after 1945 but that was after the Crisis war and after Fascism was defeated. For this reason 9/11 could not have started the Crisis because the crisis enemy leading to the crisis war is usually the same until the war climax of the crisis war.

Burner Prime

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Burner Prime »

John wrote:
Navigator wrote:
OK, that all makes sense to me. Let me add a couple of additional
thoughts, and ask your opinion.

First, a lot of people talk about civil war within the US, but I just
don't see it. I expect the country to unify behind President Trump or
whoever follows him (in generational theory this is the "Regeneracy").
The fault line from the American Civil War has pretty much healed.

But China has had two major, bloody civil wars -- the Taiping
Rebellion and Mao's civil war -- along the north vs south fault line.
And as we know, there are hundreds of thousands of "mass events" in
China every year, and one of those could certainly spiral out of
control.

Mao and Chiang were able to put the civil war on hold because of the
Japanese invasion. But if China is the aggressor this time, then
China's society may be split and remain split, causing China to be
bogged down with an internal civil war. Have you looked into that at
all?
This is where Fourth Turning prophecies and Generational Dynamics falls apart. The assumptions are that America and Europe are a homogeneous Western peoples on the same generational timeline, which is certainly not the case. Since 1965, tens of millions of non-western peoples have migrated to the US and Europe coming from countries with differing generational timelines. This doesn't even take into consideration that those people are not assimilated or adhere to Western principles at all, and have no national love for their host countries. Recently-arrived Mexicans and Somalis do not wave the American flag and eat apple pie.

The tensions among ethic groups are masked by the more prominent widening gap in left and right philosophies. During WW II, ethnic populations were not a factor on the directions the US took, whereas now they might be due to their higher percentage.

When the US enters the next world war and the existential crisis comes, third world religious and ethnic groups who have no strong ties (patriotism) to the US will not participate in large numbers. No one will be able to shame or force them to either as they will opt out or simply relocate back to their home countries or other locales outside the reach of coercion or military draft.

In addition, as the US is weakened by full scale war, she will be unable to police the southern part of the US where the populations are overwhelmingly Hispanic. Mexico could use some pretext of racism to secure the safety of her ethnic brethren and assume control or annex parts of the south, just as Russia did with Ukraine and many countries have done throughout history.

The only thing preventing ethnic bloodbaths today are strong paramilitary police forces who ruthlessly clamp down on any racial strife between groups. Those forces and the entire will to use them for internal stability would be severely weakened due to being allocated to national defense or war fighting. Pent up frustration and animosity between ethnic groups would be unleashed. This would be the nature of civil war in the US during the next world war. It would be more akin to ethic cleansing that happened in the Balkan wars.

It is important to understand the only thing that stopped the Yugoslav wars and ethnic cleansing was intervention by NATO. Those hatreds still exist today and are waiting to explode. The same sort of powder keg is brewing in the west.

Burner Prime

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Burner Prime »

John wrote:
Navigator wrote:
But despite the divisiveness of FDR, the country was quickly united
behind FDR, first by the attack on Pearl Harbor, and then by the
Bataan Death march. In generational theory, this is the "Regeneracy,"
which refers to the recreation of civic unity for the first time since
the end of the previous crisis war.

So, exactly the same thing will happen today. If there's an attack on
American soil, or a major military defeat overseas, then Americans
will put aside their political differences and unite behind Trump (or
the next president) overnight.
The left and right may unite but the same cannot be said for the tens of millions of disparate and newly-arrived religious and ethnic groups.

The population in the US is not the same homogeneous Western-European population (largely in any case) it was during WW II. Today a large percentage are new arrivals from the third world and Latin America - and in some areas are the majority. Those people have little vested interested in the US other than to extract resources. They have no strong ties, no enduring love, no willingness to die for the "American Way of Life". When the existential crisis comes, they will not lay their lives on the line or unite in defense of Jeffersonian principles. They will be immune to public pressure to defend their newly-adopted country. Instead they will opt out, relocate to safer areas out of the line of fire, or otherwise be safe from US jurisdiction to coerce or draft them into service.

It is not impossible that huge resentment will arise from this as groups who have been here for generations see the "cowardly act" of abandoning the nation in her time of need. At the same time fault lines may grow among ethnic groups who would want to defend the US (black descendants of slaves) vs newly-arrived Africans such as Somalis who may not care whether the US survives or not. This could lead to slaughter along ethnic and religious lines.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Guest wrote:
( Are the Japanese considered the "Jews" of Asia? )
Absolutely not. The Chinese are the 'Jews' of Asia. Here in lies the problem with arm chair types like you: you don't know what you are talking about. Ethnic Chinese live in and often dominate the economies of Asian countries, to the point of being despised. I don't know how many would actually support the Red Chinese government. That's an open question.


John is spot on in his analysis of Asia.

--A guest from Seoul
I was referring to the possibility of the Japanese being perceived of as the "Jews of Asia", especially by the Chinese, due to the fact that the Japanese are (as a nationality/country) smarter, more industrious, more successful, and more of a "World Icon" than other asian populations.

It seems to me that the Chinese are more like the Colonialist English than the Jews of Western Eurasia.

The Chinese dominate very overtly, and by not only economic and political power, but also by increasing their populations in "host" countries.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 11-Feb-2019 Fourth Turning theory vs Generational Dynamics theory
Burner Prime wrote: > This is where Fourth Turning prophecies and Generational Dynamics
> falls apart. The assumptions are that America and Europe are a
> homogeneous Western peoples on the same generational timeline,
> which is certainly not the case. Since 1965, tens of millions of
> non-western peoples have migrated to the US and Europe coming from
> countries with differing generational timelines. This doesn't even
> take into consideration that those people are not assimilated or
> adhere to Western principles at all, and have no national love for
> their host countries. Recently-arrived Mexicans and Somalis do not
> wave the American flag and eat apple pie.

> The tensions among ethic groups are masked by the more prominent
> widening gap in left and right philosophies. During WW II, ethnic
> populations were not a factor on the directions the US took,
> whereas now they might be due to their higher percentage.

> When the US enters the next world war and the existential crisis
> comes, third world religious and ethnic groups who have no strong
> ties (patriotism) to the US will not participate in large
> numbers. No one will be able to shame or force them to either as
> they will opt out or simply relocate back to their home countries
> or other locales outside the reach of coercion or military draft.

> In addition, as the US is weakened by full scale war, she will be
> unable to police the southern part of the US where the populations
> are overwhelmingly Hispanic. Mexico could use some pretext of
> racism to secure the safety of her ethnic brethren and assume
> control or annex parts of the south, just as Russia did with
> Ukraine and many countries have done throughout history.

> The only thing preventing ethnic bloodbaths today are strong
> paramilitary police forces who ruthlessly clamp down on any racial
> strife between groups. Those forces and the entire will to use
> them for internal stability would be severely weakened due to
> being allocated to national defense or war fighting. Pent up
> frustration and animosity between ethnic groups would be
> unleashed. This would be the nature of civil war in the US during
> the next world war. It would be more akin to ethic cleansing that
> happened in the Balkan wars.

> It is important to understand the only thing that stopped the
> Yugoslav wars and ethnic cleansing was intervention by NATO. Those
> hatreds still exist today and are waiting to explode. The same
> sort of powder keg is brewing in the west.

You may know something about the Fourth Turning, but you obviously
know nothing about Generational Dynamics. The core basis of
Fourth Turning theory is that the entire world is on the same
timeline. All kinds of other errors fall out of that incorrect
assumption.

Since I started developing Generational Dynamics in 2003, the
core basis is the "Principal of Localization," which says
that each generational timeline is unique to a particular
country or society.

** Book I / Chapter 3 -- The Principle of Localization
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... ation1.htm
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... ation2.htm

** Book II - GD model vs TFT model
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... #lab102223

A lot of what you've written here is based on the incorrect
TFT assumption. Once you introduce the Principal of Localization,
a lot of what you've written has to be changed.

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