Generational Dynamics World View News

[FishbellykanakaDude]

... Without Google's operating system, Google mail and Google
maps, Huawei would be out of business.

Is it pouring gasoline, or NAPHTHA, on the fire to nationalize Google at this point?

..<chuckle!>,.. yeah,.. I dare say it would be.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

[im g]https://s15-us2.startpage.com/cgi-bin/s ... 3170cc7599[/img]

..if you're particularly interested, just copy/paste the url into the location field of your favorite browser thingy, and be astounded...

Otherwise,.. don't bother.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

[John]

3-Jul-19 World View -- Vietnam to gain from collapse of US-China trade talks

North vs South Vietnam


** 3-Jul-19 World View -- Vietnam to gain from collapse of US-China trade talks
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190703


Contents:
Vietnam to gain from collapse of US-China trade talks
Business opportunities in Vietnam
North vs South Vietnam
Doing Business in North Vietnam after the US-China negotiations
Doing business in South Vietnam -- Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC or Saigon)


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, Vietnam, North Vietnam, South Vietnam,
Vietnamese Kingdom, Champa Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Tay-Son rebellion, France, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam War, Doi Moi,
Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, HCMC, Saigon

[John]

4-Jul-19 World View -- UK-China war of words escalates sharply over Hong Kong riots

Did China set a trap for the protesters?

** 4-Jul-19 World View -- UK-China war of words escalates sharply over Hong Kong riots
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190704



Contents:
UK-China war of words escalates sharply over Hong Kong riots
Nearing a repeat of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre
Britain and China exchange threats in escalated war of words
Did China set a trap for the protesters?


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, Britain,
Legislative Council, LegCo, one nation - two systems,
Tiananmen Square massacre, Opium Wars, Joint Declaration,
Jeremy Hunt, Liu Xiaoming

[guest]

Did China set a trap for the protesters?

If the scenario follows what you have proposed, then a Tiananmen Square style massacre is just days or at the most, weeks away. That would lead to pell mell capital flight out of HK and mainland China. And that would lead to the complete collapse, of the Chinese economy.

China would erupt in revolution. The elites of Shanghai and Beijing would be massacred by the unwashed masses of China. The Chinese hate their government. The average person knows their government is corrupt. I don't see civil war, I see a bloody uprising of the poor. The Chinese army is made up of the poor. I don't believe they would go along with it. In 1989, there was the pretense of true communism and everyone, including the elites, wore Mao suits. Now the elites were Rolex watches.

The Chinese are not stupid. They know life sucks in China. And they are fed up.

[John]

** 04-Jul-2019 World View: Britain seizes Iranian tanker carrying oil to Syria

Britain's Royal Marines have seized an Iranian oil tanker, the Grace
1, a "very large crude carrier" or VLCC, allegedly carrying Iranian
oil to Syria. The tanker would have been violating two different
sanctions -- the sanctions against Iran selling oil, and the sanctions
against Syria receiving oil.

• Path of Iran's Grace 1 oil supertanker (The Sun)

The geopolitical effects are that Syria will feel the immediate impact
of losing a crucial oil shipment, while tensions between Iran and the
West will be further inflamed.

According to a report in World Oil:

"Gibraltar didn’t say where the crude came from, but
shipping tracking data compiled by Bloomberg suggest the vessel
loaded at Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal in mid-April. After
anchoring off the United Arab Emirates for several weeks, the ship
began a journey around the southern tip of Africa, passing Cape
Town in early June, rather than taking the more direct route
through the Suez Canal.

That route from Iran to Syria is about 23,300 km (14,500 mi),
compared with just 6,600 km via the Red Sea and Suez Canal. A ship
the size of the Grace 1, known as a Very Large Crude Carrier, or
VLCC, can’t pass through the canal fully loaded. The shorter route
would require it to discharge half its cargo, load it on to a
smaller ship or send the oil through the Sumed Pipeline, and pick
it up again in the Mediterranean.

Iran can’t pump oil through the pipeline, which spans Egypt from
the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, because the link is owned by
companies from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates,
Kuwait and Qatar. The pipeline’s owners have not permitted the
transit of Iranian crude since August 2012."

Gibraltar is a British territory on Spain's southern tip that
overlooks the strait between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic
Ocean. Britain acquired the Gibraltar territory during the War of the
Spanish Succession (1704-1709), which was settled by the Treaty of
Utrecht of 1714.

Gibraltar has been a part of the Brexit negotiations. Media reports
usually say that there is only one land border between the UK and the
EU27 (the rest of the EU), but that's not true. There's another land
border -- between Spain and the British territory of Gibraltar. The
border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is highly contentious
because of fears that introducing customs checks on that border will
once again inflame "The Troubles," the centuries-old clash between the
indigenous Gaelics versus the descendants of the Scottish and English
invaders. However, there is no such concern with Gibraltar, and there
will be customs checks between Gibraltar and Spain (assuming that
Brexit actually occurs).

The Donald Trump administration has place extremely harsh sanctions on
Iran, and the current incident will certainly inflame tensions
further. In my opinion, Trump has been following a dual strategy with
Iran -- a short range strategy and a long-range strategy.

Since 2015, Iran has been using the billions of dollars they received
from the JCPOA to build up the IRGC and to fund military and terrorist
activities in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Gaza (Hamas).
Trump's short-range strategy was to cut off this flow of money, and
it's already been effective, since there are reports that Hezbollah
and Hamas are having financial problems.

The other part of the short-range strategy is to keep Iran from
doing stupid things like exploding oil tankers in Hormuz Strait
or shooting down drones. This whole song and dance about planning
a military strike and then calling it off ten minutes before launch
seems to have accomplished that strategy, at least so far.

Iran's younger generations, the ones that grew up after the 1979 civil
war, hate the hard-line geezers and are mostly pro-Western and
pro-American, and as the younger generations grow in size, while the
old hard-line geezers die off, Iran's policies are gradually changing.
So Trump's long-range strategy is to encourage that change of policy.

As far as I can tell, the European countries favor this policy, but
can't say so for domestic reasons. Thursday's seizure of the Iranian
oil tanker is likely to cause expressions of outrage from Iran, but
will probably not generate more than perfunctory political complaints
within the EU.

---- Sources:

-- Grace 1 supertanker / Iran / British forces seize oil tanker for
violating Syria sanctions
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/7/4/ ... -sanctions
(WorldOil, 4-Jul-2019)

-- Eyes on Iran as Britain seizes oil tanker over Syria sanctions
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mide ... SKCN1TZ0GN
(Reuters, 4-Jul-2019)

-- Syria / Iran / U.K. Marines Seize Oil Tanker, Causing Diplomatic
Row With Iran
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-to-syria
(BB, 4-Jul-2019)

-- Royal Marines and Gibraltar seize ship suspected of taking Iranian
oil to Syria
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... -sanctions
(Guardian, 4-Jul-2019)

---- Related:

** 20-Aug-13 World View -- Sinai 'is almost an all-out war' as attack kills 24 Egyptian policemen
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e130820


** 4-Jan-19 World View -- Britain may establish a military base in South China Sea after Brexit
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190104

[John]

** 04-Jul-2019 Independence Day

Wow! That was absolutely spectacular and amazing! Donald Trump
really knows how to put on a show.

[John]

** 04-Jul-2019 La Marseillaise and Star Spangled Banner

Whenever I hear someone sing the Star Spangled Banner, I'm always
reminded of the contrast between its lyrics and those of France's
national anthem, La Marseillaise:

Arise children of the fatherland
The day of glory has arrived
Against us tyranny's
Bloody standard is raised
Listen to the sound in the fields
The howling of these fearsome soldiers
They are coming into our midst
To cut the throats of your sons and wives

To arms citizens
Form your battalions
March, march
Let impure blood
Water our furrows

By contrast, here are four stanzas of the Star Spangled
Banner by Francis Scott Key:

O say can you see, by the dawn's early light,
What so proudly we hail'd at the twilight's last gleaming,
Whose broad stripes and bright stars through the perilous fight
O'er the ramparts we watch'd were so gallantly streaming?
And the rocket's red glare, the bomb bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there,
O say does that star-spangled banner yet wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave?

On the shore dimly seen through the mists of the deep
Where the foe's haughty host in dread silence reposes,
What is that which the breeze, o'er the towering steep,
As it fitfully blows, half conceals, half discloses?
Now it catches the gleam of the morning's first beam,
In full glory reflected now shines in the stream,
'Tis the star-spangled banner - O long may it wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!

And where is that band who so vauntingly swore,
That the havoc of war and the battle's confusion
A home and a Country should leave us no more?
Their blood has wash'd out their foul footstep's pollution.
No refuge could save the hireling and slave
From the terror of flight or the gloom of the grave,
And the star-spangled banner in triumph doth wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave.

O thus be it ever when freemen shall stand
Between their lov'd home and the war's desolation!
Blest with vict'ry and peace may the heav'n rescued land
Praise the power that hath made and preserv'd us a nation!
Then conquer we must, when our cause it is just,
And this be our motto - "In God is our trust,"
And the star-spangled banner in triumph shall wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave.

Many people consider the third stanza to be racist because Francis
Scott Key, who was a slaveowner, refers to the escaped slaves who were
considered to be traitors for joining the British in fighting against
America in the War of 1812, at a time when the continued survival of
country was in doubt.

Most people consider the rest of the lyrics to be uplifting, an appeal
to God to preserve the nation, "the land of the free and the home of
the brave."

[John]

** 04-Jul-2019 God Save the Queen and My Country Tis of Thee

While I'm at it, here are the lyrics to Britain's national
anthem, God Save the Queen:

God save our gracious Queen,
Long live our noble Queen,
God save the Queen!
Send her victorious,
Happy and glorious,
Long to reign over us;
God save the Queen!

O Lord our God arise,
Scatter her enemies
And make them fall;
Confound their politics,
Frustrate their knavish tricks,
On Thee our hopes we fix,
God save us all!

Thy choicest gifts in store
On her be pleased to pour;
Long may she reign;
May she defend our laws,
And ever give us cause
To sing with heart and voice,
God save the Queen!

Not in this land alone,
But be God's mercies known,
From shore to shore!
Lord make the nations see,
That men should brothers be,
And form one family,
The wide world over.

From every latent foe,
From the assassins blow,
God save the Queen!
O'er her thine arm extend,
For Britain's sake defend,
Our mother, prince, and friend,
God save the Queen!

Lord grant that Marshal Wade
May by thy mighty aid
Victory bring.
May he sedition hush,
And like a torrent rush,
Rebellious Scots to crush.
God save the King!

The American patriotic song My Country Tis of Them was written
by Samuel Francis Smith, who stole the tune from God Save the Queen:

My country tis of thee,
Sweet land of liberty,
Of thee I sing.
Land where my fathers died!
Land of the Pilgrim's pride!
From every mountain side,
Let freedom ring!

My native country, thee,
Land of the noble free,
Thy name I love.
I love thy rocks and rills,
Thy woods and templed hills;
My heart with rapture fills
Like that above.

Let music swell the breeze,
And ring from all the trees
Sweet freedom's song.
Let mortal tongues awake;
Let all that breathe partake;
Let rocks their silence break,
The sound prolong.

Our father's God to, Thee,
Author of liberty,
To Thee we sing.
Long may our land be bright
With freedom's holy light;
Protect us by Thy might,
Great God, our King!