Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
FullMoon
Posts: 772
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

shoshin wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:13 pm
A no doubt minority view on Russia/Ukraine: Putin is a second-rate KGB bureaucrat who serves at the pleasure of the Russian oligarchs. They were miffed at the (albeit weak) sanctions imposed by Obama, but very pleased with Trump’s loosening of those sanctions. Now that Biden is re-imposing some of those sanctions, and threatening tougher ones should Russia invade Ukraine, they would rather that Putin refrain from an invasion. Putin is more or less pursuing the Kim Jong Un approach of bellicosity aimed at getting attention and thus getting relief from sanctions.

Therefore, he will continue to threaten, but refrain from attacking, pleasing his oligarch pals.
Let's hope you're right!
Possibly the threats will accomplish their objective without having to use force. Possibly not. We will soon find out. It would be nice to enjoy a springtime without war.

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Chinese Economic Meltdown

Post by Navigator »

I had been doing reading on what is happening regarding the Evergrande default in China.

In doing so, I found this great article in Forbes on the "shadow government borrowing" by local governments in China.

It puts the Evergrande (and now probably Shimao as well) to shame.

I believe there is a very definite limit on how long the CCP can keep this from imploding.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampes ... 2fd5f515cc

As discussed previously, an economic crisis in China will most likely force the CCP to do something drastic, like start a war.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Chinese Economic Meltdown

Post by John »

** 16-Jan-2022 World View: China's Country Garden
Navigator wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:30 am

> I had been doing reading on what is happening regarding the
> Evergrande default in China.

> In doing so, I found this great article in Forbes on the "shadow
> government borrowing" by local governments in China.

> It puts the Evergrande (and now probably Shimao as well) to shame.

> I believe there is a very definite limit on how long the CCP can
> keep this from imploding.

> https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampes ... 2fd5f515cc

> As discussed previously, an economic crisis in China will most
> likely force the CCP to do something drastic, like start a
> war.
The situation is continuing to deteriorate. Evergrande has essentially
gone bankrupt. In the last few days, the property crisis hit
China's biggest builder, Country Garden. A lot of bondholders are
going to lose their money, and millions of people are going to
lose their down payments, with their homes uninhabitable.

Image
  • Country Garden bonds crash


Crisis Impacts Major Developer Country Garden: Evergrande Update

Key Developments:
  • Property Crisis in China Reaches Biggest Builder Country Garden
  • China’s Property Market Is Set for State-Dominated ‘Age of Rust’
  • Chinese Developer R&F Downgraded to Restricted Default by Fitch
  • China’s Economy Loses Steam Just as Omicron Spreads: Eco Week
  • Volatility in China High-Yield Property Bonds Hides Progress: BI
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/crisis-impa ... -1.1708549
(Bloomberg, 16-Jan-2022)

** 25-Sep-21 World View -- China Evergrande construction firm heads to default
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210925

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

DaKardii wrote:
Fri Jan 14, 2022 3:09 pm
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:52 pm
Your points show that that Nursultan (and now Tokayev) run a tightly controlled administration that strictly limits Western influence. That supports my own arguments, not yours.
You originally said foreign influence, not Western influence. So you used a term that was far broader in scope than the term you're using now. That's why I brought up the CSTO and the EAEU. Because it's very clear from Kazakhstan joining those organizations that Nursultan did not pursue a policy of strictly limiting Russian influence.

On the other hand, you are correct that he strictly limited Western influence. But since he didn't strictly limit Russian influence, the situation on the ground proves my point.
OK, you're correct that I initially said foreign rather than Western, but in this context they're the same thing. Russian influence in Kazakhstan has remained strong since the breakup of the USSR by Western influence has been minimal. This makes if quite unlikely that Western influences are the cause of the demonstrations and general unrest in Kazakhstan.
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:52 pm
Does it really? Is fomenting unrest in Central Asia really to the benefit of the US when the primary beneficiaries of that would be Russia of China? There aren't calls for liberty of democracy; it has been lower gas prices and curbs on the official corruption. The US has no real influence in any of the Central Asian states and no real ability to even do so. Occam's razor suggests that that the real cause is exactly what everyone (except Putin and Tokayev) have been saying; a sudden increase in gas prices and a long simmering discontent over corruption.

And do you really think the Biden administration could even find its ass with both hands let alone do what you're claiming?
We both agree that Biden is incompetent. But the bureaucracies that have done much of the real work for the last few decades are not. They are more than capable of making up for the competency deficit in the White House.
You obviously have a much higher opinion of the ability of the US to influence foreign countries in which the US has little to no influence.
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:52 pm
Just because you like the theory doesn't make it so. China, Iran and Russia aren't allies; at best they are co-belligerents whose interests intersect at various points. They all have very clear and very strong differences and oppose each other on other points.
I don't like the theory. I despise it actually, because it's been used to cause so much harm. Not just be the US, but also the British and the Germans.

Yes, I did say "Germans." Heartland Theory also influenced the ideas of Karl Haushofer, who in turn was a major influence on Nazi Germany's foreign policy towards Eastern Europe in general and the USSR in particular. Hell, Haushofer was a mentor of both Rudolf Hess and Hitler himself, and it was Haushofer who coined the term Lebensraum. So Heartland Theory is not only contributing to the current situation, it also (indirectly) contributed to the mass genocides which occurred on the Eastern Front of WWII, including the Holocaust.

https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/20 ... eopolitics

As for Americans who were influenced by Heartland Theory, besides Brzezinski, look to people like James Burnham, George Kennan, John Foster Dulles, and Henry Kissinger.

https://americandiplomacy.web.unc.edu/2 ... d-warrior/
See Kissinger, Henry, (1994). Diplomacy, New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 814.

Oh, Heartland Theory is also an influence on modern Russian foreign policy too.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/27/ge ... iny-putin/
The point is that there is not widespread support for this theory. It remains fringe and has little to back it up. I have little regard for Nazi theorists who had little to no interest in Central Asia at all. In any case, they're all dead. As more "modern" support you're bringing up people who are dead (Kissinger is mostly there) and have not had any influence in foreign affairs in decades. There are few to no people in any kind of power or influence who support this theory. As for Dugin, it's questionable how much influence he has on anyone in power. He's an anti-Western fascist (interestingly he accuses Ukrainians of being neo-Nazis when he really is a Russian Nazi.)
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:52 pm
That's a facile view of the world. What is a direct threat? Only someone pointing guns or missiles? What about threats to trade partners? How about the cold war? Should the US have left Western Europe to its fate against the USSR? How about China and Taiwan? How about Japan and South Korea? None of these would have been "direct" threats to the US but the impacts on the US would have been huge. How about WWI and WWII? Should the US have sat back and let Nazi Germany and the USSR fight it out until one of they got nuclear weapons and incinerated most of Europe?

I think your view of what is an actual threat could use some more thinking. Now, if you wanted to say that the US has at times gone overboard and gotten involved in actions that weren't necessary, I could agree with you there.
I get it. You don't think I have a definition of a "direct threat." I'll admit, there are a lot of so-called "experts" who say what I say about American interests and then fail to establish what those interests are. So, I'll do it for them.

My definition of a "direct threat" is any threat to our soil or to countries which directly border us by land or by sea. By this definition, the most important region to our national security is the Northern Pacific region. Why? Because that region is the only thing keeping China from directly invading US soil.

That's why its so important that we maintain good relations with Russia and not push it into China's arms. Russia, along with Japan, would be able to guarantee that we have countries serving as "barriers" between our territory and Chinese territory.
The thing keeping China from invading the US is the fact that it 1. doesn't have the sealift to move appreciable numbers of troops to the US, 2. doesn't have the ability to outfight the US Navy 3. doesn't have the ability to take over a large landmass and 4. doesn't have a particular desire to invade the US. The importance of the Western Pacific is to keep China from trying to invade its neighbors; something still difficult but within the realm of possibilities. Invading the US is a fantasy.

The US isn't pushing Russia anywhere. If anything the US has tried to bring Russia in the Western world as an equal partner; not to the US of course, but to one of the smaller European nations with similar economy sizes. The problem is that the Russian government is determined to try to achieve the power level it has as the USSR even when it doesn't have the economic or military power to do so. A different Russian government with different policies would find lots of Western hands extended to them and lots of economic possibilities. The current bad and declining economy and foreign status of Russia rests entirely on the mismanaging hands of Putin and his cronies. And there will never be an "alliance' between Russia and China; China has its own desires for Russian territory as well as influence in Central Asia.
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:52 pm
In approving the NATO treaty, Congress did not nullify its own powers. At most you could say that it deferred certain decision making powers to another agency which Congress does all the time domestically. However, consider what Article 5 of the NATO treaty actually says:

"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area."

Note the such action as it deems necessary

Also note Article 11:

This Treaty shall be ratified and its provisions carried out by the Parties in accordance with their respective constitutional processes.

I think your argument has failed.
I agree that Article V's language is vague enough to be open to alternate interpretations regarding Congressional war powers. That's why I said that our membership is arguably unconstitutional, as opposed to saying that it is just unconstitutional.
By the exact words of the treaty it is subject to the constitutional demands of each state. That automatically removes any ability to be unconstitutional. In any case, the Supreme court has ruled on the constitutionality of foreign treaties and does not support your view. Besides, presidents have an immense ability to engage in armed conflict without a declaration of war.

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4180
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

January 17, 2022
Putin’s Dangerous Ukraine Gambit
By Ed Sherdlu

https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... ambit.html
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Chinese Economic Meltdown

Post by John »

** 17-Jan-2022 World View: Another disastrous day for China's property developers

Yesterday, we described how the bonds for China's largest developer,
Country Garden, were crashing.

Today, there's another Chinese property developer in distress -- Logan
Bonds.

**** Chinese developer bond rout deepens on hidden debt concerns

Image
  • Many Chinese developer bonds crashed on Monday (Bloomberg)


From Bloomberg:

Mounting concerns about the transparency of China’s better developers
is forcing bondholders to question the liquidity of firms whose
finances appear sound. More debt would mean more creditors, some of
whom could demand early repayment. There’s also the risk that hidden
liabilities like trust loans, private bonds or high-yield consumer
products receive preferential treatment over money owed to offshore
creditors. China Evergrande Group, Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd and Shimao
Group Holdings Ltd have all faced such obligations.

“Risks across the Chinese property sector are rising, evident from
difficult refinancing conditions for even the most well-regarded
firms,” said Wei Liang Chang, a macro strategist at DBS Bank
Ltd. Greater clarity on the disclosure of liabilities as well as asset
sales are crucial to shore up confidence, he added.

Chinese property firms need to repay or refinance some US$99 billion
of local and offshore bonds this year. Just under half of that is
outstanding dollar debt, Bloomberg-compiled data show.

Image
  • Chinese builders need to repay $99 billion this year


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... t-concerns
(Bloomberg, 17-Jan-2022)

**** China says tickets for Beijing Winter Olympics will not be sold to general public due to COVID-19

Adding to China's troubles, the spread of Covid is resulting in tens
of millions of people being locked down. Several hours ago, China
annouced that no tickets will be sold to the games, due to the "grave
and complicated situation of the pandemic."

https://www.arirang.com/News/News_View. ... seq=291663
(Arirang, Korea, 17-Jan-2022)

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Chinese Economic Meltdown

Post by Navigator »

Navigator wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:30 am
I had been doing reading on what is happening regarding the Evergrande default in China.

In doing so, I found this great article in Forbes on the "shadow government borrowing" by local governments in China.

It puts the Evergrande (and now probably Shimao as well) to shame.

I believe there is a very definite limit on how long the CCP can keep this from imploding.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampes ... 2fd5f515cc

As discussed previously, an economic crisis in China will most likely force the CCP to do something drastic, like start a war.
Its not just the real estate developers that are imploding. The above article (see link) points to the massive amount of hidden local government debt in China (LGFVs). This "black" debt has been used by local and regional governments to goose economic data higher, resulting in better promotion opportunities in the party for the officials doing this. It is yet another layer of the massive house of cards that is CCP run finance in China, and it is coming apart at the seams right now.

Xeraphim1

Re: Chinese Economic Meltdown

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Navigator wrote:
Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:21 am
Navigator wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:30 am
I had been doing reading on what is happening regarding the Evergrande default in China.

In doing so, I found this great article in Forbes on the "shadow government borrowing" by local governments in China.

It puts the Evergrande (and now probably Shimao as well) to shame.

I believe there is a very definite limit on how long the CCP can keep this from imploding.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampes ... 2fd5f515cc

As discussed previously, an economic crisis in China will most likely force the CCP to do something drastic, like start a war.
Its not just the real estate developers that are imploding. The above article (see link) points to the massive amount of hidden local government debt in China (LGFVs). This "black" debt has been used by local and regional governments to goose economic data higher, resulting in better promotion opportunities in the party for the officials doing this. It is yet another layer of the massive house of cards that is CCP run finance in China, and it is coming apart at the seams right now.
Most Chinese figures over the past three decades have been artificial. Local debt is truly huge and the localities can only pay if they can keep the Ponzi running. The problem is that at some point it's all going to catch up with them. It looks like like the CCP has been trying to do something to deflate the housing bubble, but will the cure be worse than the sickness?

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

https://unherd.com/2022/01/why-biden-ha ... d-ukraine/
Why Biden has sacrificed Ukraine
Putin sees through the West's empty rhetoric

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Chinese Economic Meltdown

Post by Cool Breeze »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:20 am
Navigator wrote:
Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:21 am
Navigator wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 12:30 am
I had been doing reading on what is happening regarding the Evergrande default in China.

In doing so, I found this great article in Forbes on the "shadow government borrowing" by local governments in China.

It puts the Evergrande (and now probably Shimao as well) to shame.

I believe there is a very definite limit on how long the CCP can keep this from imploding.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampes ... 2fd5f515cc

As discussed previously, an economic crisis in China will most likely force the CCP to do something drastic, like start a war.
Its not just the real estate developers that are imploding. The above article (see link) points to the massive amount of hidden local government debt in China (LGFVs). This "black" debt has been used by local and regional governments to goose economic data higher, resulting in better promotion opportunities in the party for the officials doing this. It is yet another layer of the massive house of cards that is CCP run finance in China, and it is coming apart at the seams right now.
Most Chinese figures over the past three decades have been artificial. Local debt is truly huge and the localities can only pay if they can keep the Ponzi running. The problem is that at some point it's all going to catch up with them. It looks like like the CCP has been trying to do something to deflate the housing bubble, but will the cure be worse than the sickness?
That's probably when war, or the potential for war, actually breaks out. Yes.

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