Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:47 am
I get it. You don't think I have a definition of a "direct threat." I'll admit, there are a lot of so-called "experts" who say what I say about American interests and then fail to establish what those interests are. So, I'll do it for them.

My definition of a "direct threat" is any threat to our soil or to countries which directly border us by land or by sea. By this definition, the most important region to our national security is the Northern Pacific region. Why? Because that region is the only thing keeping China from directly invading US soil.

That's why its so important that we maintain good relations with Russia and not push it into China's arms. Russia, along with Japan, would be able to guarantee that we have countries serving as "barriers" between our territory and Chinese territory.

...

The thing keeping China from invading the US is the fact that it 1. doesn't have the sealift to move appreciable numbers of troops to the US, 2. doesn't have the ability to outfight the US Navy 3. doesn't have the ability to take over a large landmass and 4. doesn't have a particular desire to invade the US. The importance of the Western Pacific is to keep China from trying to invade its neighbors; something still difficult but within the realm of possibilities. Invading the US is a fantasy.

The US isn't pushing Russia anywhere. If anything the US has tried to bring Russia in the Western world as an equal partner; not to the US of course, but to one of the smaller European nations with similar economy sizes. The problem is that the Russian government is determined to try to achieve the power level it has as the USSR even when it doesn't have the economic or military power to do so. A different Russian government with different policies would find lots of Western hands extended to them and lots of economic possibilities. The current bad and declining economy and foreign status of Russia rests entirely on the mismanaging hands of Putin and his cronies. And there will never be an "alliance' between Russia and China; China has its own desires for Russian territory as well as influence in Central Asia.
Great post, Xeraphim.

I enjoy the back and forth. I think DaK hits on quite a few good ideas too, but I'm also skeptical of all that Mackinder/Dugin stuff and everyone knows the petrodollar stuff is my main beef with DaK. Otherwise, I enjoy all of y'all's posts.

I think people here on GD drastically underestimate the real desire of the global world, which (and it does include a possibility of at least scary regional or larger war) is to have a surveillance state and one world gov't (at least a loose confederation led by some BS entity like the IMF). It's quite obvious if you have the eyes to see.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

I find the lack of journalistic challenge to the EU as pathetic. We regularly here how the EU wants a common foreign policy, Armed forces and ‘be relevant’ in the world, and yet in the face of the threat of invasion to a blameless neighbour the German government hasnt the stomach to support its allies.

No country east of Germany should be confident of their safety if they give up their sovereignty to a common EU defence.

guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by guest »

The German actions demonstrate why America is slowly withdrawing from the world order. It doesn't need it at all, and it is tired of paying for everyone's defense. Germany will be the first to come running with it's hand out when Russia pulls the chain of energy supplies, but I don't expect America will be picking up the phone. We still remember Merkel saying, "Germany does not owe America anything. America owes us!" That sentence signed the death warrant of NATO, and America's commitment to European security. We are just waiting for the fat lady to sing.

Mark D

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Mark D »

Russia is looking a few years down the road. Europe is still in denial, but Russia is facing the fact of imminent implosion in the Chinese economy. When China goes, Germany goes. When Germany goes the Euro and the EU goes. The world free trade order collapses leaving only North America as a viable consumer market. In such a world Russia faces biblical famine, UNLESS it gains control of Ukraine and it's food production. Don't get between the greatest nuclear power on earth and dinner.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

DaKardii wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:37 pm
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:33 pm
Are we supposed to ignore the fact that Nursultan ran a very tight ship and strongly limited all foreign influences?
It was under Nursultan that Kazakhstan joined the CSTO. A literal military alliance with Russia. It was also under Nursultan that Kazakhstan joined the Eurasian Economic Union, which basically cannot function without Russian membership.
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:33 pm
Are we supposed to ignore that fact that Kazakhstan removed price caps on fuel at the same time as the Ukraine standoff?
Color revolutions ALWAYS start off as organic unrest based on existing grievances. They then become color revolutions because outside forces exploit those grievances to their own advantage.
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:33 pm
The US has never had a very strong interest in Central Asia despite what you pet theory says.
You're definitely right that we have no natural interests in the region. But the consensus among so-called "geopolitical experts" is that we need to copy the British Empire and wage our own version of the "Great Game." Why? Because they think if we control Central Asia, we control the world? Why? Because Heartland Theory.
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:13 pm
Russians refuse to ask why all the countries that used to be part of the Russian Empire/USSR/Warsaw Pact want to join NATO. They refuse to accept that the one common feature is Russia. If Russia didn't have such shitty policies and shitty relations with its neighbors, they'd have no interest in NATO.
That may be true, but it isn't in our interests to protect them. Also, our NATO membership is arguably unconstitutional because Article V could be used as a pretext to enter an armed conflict without a Congressional declaration of war.
That’s a modern equivalent of what they said about Poland in 1939. Great stuff!

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

Mark D wrote:
Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:35 pm
Russia is looking a few years down the road. Europe is still in denial, but Russia is facing the fact of imminent implosion in the Chinese economy. When China goes, Germany goes. When Germany goes the Euro and the EU goes. The world free trade order collapses leaving only North America as a viable consumer market. In such a world Russia faces biblical famine, UNLESS it gains control of Ukraine and it's food production. Don't get between the greatest nuclear power on earth and dinner.
Why does Germany go when China goes?

And why can't I say that women shouldn't rule over anybody?

Mark D

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Mark D »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:03 pm
Mark D wrote:
Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:35 pm
Russia is looking a few years down the road. Europe is still in denial, but Russia is facing the fact of imminent implosion in the Chinese economy. When China goes, Germany goes. When Germany goes the Euro and the EU goes. The world free trade order collapses leaving only North America as a viable consumer market. In such a world Russia faces biblical famine, UNLESS it gains control of Ukraine and it's food production. Don't get between the greatest nuclear power on earth and dinner.
Why does Germany go when China goes?

And why can't I say that women shouldn't rule over anybody?
Are you serious? You don't see the connection between the Chinese and German economies?

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

19-Jan-22 World View -- Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones

Iran's support for the Houthis

** 19-Jan-22 World View -- Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e220119


Contents:
Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones
Iran's support for the Houthis
The purpose of the Houthi attack on the UAE


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Iran, Houthis,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
Port Hodeidah, Zaydis, Fivers, Twelvers,
Hans Grundberg, Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Guest wrote:
Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:40 pm
That’s a modern equivalent of what they said about Poland in 1939. Great stuff!
Who's "they," and what did "they" say?

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Guest wrote:
Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:47 am
I don't know why the US doesn't fly over a few extra squadrons of planes and base them in Eastern Europe till the Russian return they're troops back to camp. Minimal cost compared to a war. I doubt the Russian S400 anti air defence is as good as claimed. The RAF and USAF have been probing it for the past 2 years they must know it's weaknesses by now.
This is actually a quite insightful question, as it lays bare the empty rhetoric of the west right now.

The reason is that the US, and the rest of NATO, have no plans to do anything to substantially help the Ukrainians when the Russians attack. They may send some supplies, but it will be too late at that point.

I most of the wargames about potential conflict (see the lengthy article on this I posted a few days back), the west reinforces Europe and S Korea/Japan BEFORE the start of hostilities. They also get their reserves mobilized while the bad guys are mobilizing theirs, and all of the other sane moves one would take when you see your enemies moving towards war.

In reality, NONE of the western world (I would include not only NATO, but S Korea and Japan as well) are not going to do anything until well after the shooting starts. Even then, they will attempt to do nothing until they are almost forced to do so. On top of that, their readiness state when they join hostilities (if they ever do) will be abysmal.

Once they take over the Ukraine, Russia is going to find that NATO will do almost nothing to increase the defense of the Baltics, or even Poland. Nobody is going to mobilize their reserve forces, nobody will even increase defense spending.

In the case of Taiwan, I have serious doubts the current US Administration would do anything to defend them. I would not be surprised at all that in the case of an actual Chinese attack that Biden would order the American carriers out of the area.

As far as the Germans go, I could even see them going so far as to tell NATO that in the event of a war with Russia in Poland/Baltics, that no-one with "hostile intent" is allowed to transit their country (meaning no land reinforcement of Poland/Baltics). The new German Foreign Minister is from the Green party, and God only knows how far left German foreign and defense policy is moving right now.

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