** 29-Jul-2019 World View: Brexit disaster approaches a final dénouement on October 31
- Boris Johnson and Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon
meeting in Edinburgh on Monday
I look at the Brexit issue (and most issues) as if I were a Martian
looking out at earth and wondering what the hell is going on. And
I've been writing since day one after the June 23, 2016, referendum
that Brexit was a total disaster in the making. And I was repeatedly
called things like "scumbag globalist" (whatever that means) for
saying that.
One insurmountable problem has always been the border between Northern
Ireland (which is part of the UK) and (Southern) Ireland (which will
remain part of the EU). Ireland and Northern Ireland have an
extremely violent history described as "The Troubles," characterized
by violence between the indigenous Gaelics versus the descendants of
the English and Scottish invaders of old. The violence was resolved
by the Good Friday agreement in 1998 which, among other things,
committed to remove any physical border between the two, and allow
free movement of goods and people. It's been apparent since the
beginning that no solution exists to meeting the objectives of the
"Brexiteers" (the people who wanted Brexit) and maintaining a
barrier-free border. So that problem has always been insoluble and
remains so today.
As I've been writing since 2016, there is no solution to the Ireland
problem. And when I say "there is no solution," I don't mean that no
politician has yet been clever enough to devise a solution. What I
mean is that no solution exists, no matter what the politicians do,
given the two red lines of an open border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland and between Northern Ireland and England. You don't have to
be a "scumbag globalist" (whatever that means) to see that, but
apparently the politicians can't. And the "Northern Ireland Backstop"
is a product of extreme hilarity to us Martians.
One thing that people forget is how people's attitudes have changed
since the 1990s. At that time, the WW II survivors were running
things, and they knew how to negotiate and compromise. Today,
Gen-Xers are running things, and have no ability or desire to
compromise on anything. Each Gen-Xer hates every other Gen-Xer and
demands that the other side do all the compromising. When both sides
have that view, then disaster ensues. That's why Brexit is headed for
disaster, and the world is headed for other disasters (i.e., a world
war).
Several months ago, it became clear to me that a "no deal Brexit" was
going to occur, not because it was a good option, but because it is
the default option on October 31. In order to avoid a no deal Brexit,
there has to be some compromise, and that's impossible with the
Gen-Xer negotiations. The no-deal Brexit is the only option that
happens automatically, and doesn't require anyone to negotiate or
compromise.
Since that time, the House of Commons has held eight votes -- to
remain in the EU, to leave the EU without a deal, and several variants
to leave the EU with a deal -- and they had voted NO on all of them,
and had never voted YES on anything. That's what I mean about
a refusal to compromise.
In a television interview on Monday, the new prime minister Boris
Johnson said there's still time to negotiate a new UK-EU Brexit
agreement. Boris Johnson is saying that the Northern Ireland Backstop
is dead and buried, while the EU officials say that it's a
requirement. Johnson said that it's still possible to get a deal:
'We’re very confident, with goodwill on both sides,
two mature political entities -- the U.K. and EU -- can get this
done."
Did you get that? Johnson says that if the UK is willing to
compromise, then they'll get a deal.
Johnson said something else that was silly. He referred to the UK and
EU as "two mature political entities." What exactly is "a mature
political entity?" Presumably it means that the entity has been in
existence for centuries, with some sort of consitutional government.
But entities don't negotiate. It's politicians who negotiate. And
politicians are seldom "mature," even in mature entities.
I heard a lot of wishful thinking on the BBC today, mostly claiming
that Johnson's back was to the wall, and he would forced to back down
and accept the Northern Ireland backstop. That's the BBC assuming
that Johnson is willing to compromise, just as Johnson is assuming
that the UK is willing to compromise.
As I'm typing this, I'm listening to a news report about what the
protesters in Hong Kong are saying: "I'm willing to die for this. I
have nothing to lose." Hong Kong is another example today where
nobody is willing to compromise.
I was watching al-Jazeera over the weekend, just as Boris Johnson was
moving into Number 10 Downing Street, and they had sent a reporter to
Edinburgh, the capital city of Scotland, to ask Scottish people what
they thought of Boris Johnson. Apparently the reporter was unable to
find a single person who likes Johnson. But they found many, many
people who hated Johnson. Not surprising, since Scotland had voted
overwhelmingly against the Brexit referendum in 2016.
Boris Johnson visited Edinburgh on Monday to meet with Scotland's
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. They did not reach a meeting of the
minds.
There is a big political faction in Scotland that says that if Britain
leaves the EU, then Scotland should leave Britain, and join the EU as
a separate country. In 2014, Scotland voted on a referendum to leave
the UK, but the referendum failed. It might not fail next time.
---- Sources:
-- Boris Johnson Issues Ultimatum to EU Over Brexit Talks as Pound
Slumps
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... exit-talks
(Bloomberg, 29-Jul-2019)
-- Scotland / Nicola Sturgeon: No-deal Brexit 'almost inevitable'
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sc ... s-49154491
(BBC, 29-Jul-2019)
-- Boris Johnson won’t start Brexit talks unless EU moves on backstop
https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-j ... -backstop/
(Politico-eu, 29-Jul-2019)
