Generational Dynamics World View News

[utahbob]

John, Good analysis. ** 16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan . The real impact will not be evident to most Westerners for a few months due to the real action is out of sight of the media in the hinterlands, deserts, mountains and rural area in the south. English is hardly spoken, so reporters will be in the dark. Most media and their handlers will stay in Kabul with a few brave or stupid souls venturing into Kandahar. They will not go to the farmers and see what they are doing or thinking, most of the time they hole up in the Hotel Intercontinental or Serena. There a few cities that have a bit of “modern” sheen, but really the real power of Afghanistan is the countryside. We might get inkling if a semi-clean election is held and a new Wolesi Jirga/Parliament is sworn in. I am not sure when the next election scheduled. Most of the Afghans don’t really care who runs the government: it is a feudal society with local warlords on the hook to deliver to the tribe or clan. If they don’t, somebody will step over their predecessor, take over and give it a try, line theirs, family and friends pockets.

Many of the Taliban and government officials are related or known associates to each other. The powerful families, tribes, clans and ethnic groups are intertwined they will hash it out in local shuras after bazaars , back rooms and alleys. The drug industry and lords will have a say. In a few weeks or month spring will be back with warmer weather, the snowbirds or fighters will migrate back to the central highlands from Quetta and Karachi, dig up weapons in caches around Tarin Kowt and fighting season will start again.

I hate to be cynical, but if or when this coronavirus hit Afghanistan, it will be very easy for the US and NATO to pull out.

[utahbob]

I just found this: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN2060L4
If it is in Iran, it is or will be soon in Afghanistan. There is no border control between the two countries.

[John]

** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus in Iran and Afghanistan

> John, Good analysis. ** 16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to
> sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan.
> The real impact will not be evident to most Westerners for a few
> months due to the real action is out of sight of the media in the
> hinterlands, deserts, mountains and rural area in the south.
> English is hardly spoken, so reporters will be in the dark. Most
> media and their handlers will stay in Kabul with a few brave or
> stupid souls venturing into Kandahar. They will not go to the
> farmers and see what they are doing or thinking, most of the time
> they hole up in the Hotel Intercontinental or Serena. There a few
> cities that have a bit of “modern” sheen, but really the real
> power of Afghanistan is the countryside. We might get inkling if a
> semi-clean election is held and a new Wolesi Jirga/Parliament is
> sworn in. I am not sure when the next election scheduled. Most of
> the Afghans don’t really care who runs the government: it is a
> feudal society with local warlords on the hook to deliver to the
> tribe or clan. If they don’t, somebody will step over their
> predecessor, take over and give it a try, line theirs, family and
> friends pockets.

> Many of the Taliban and government officials are related or known
> associates to each other. The powerful families, tribes, clans and
> ethnic groups are intertwined they will hash it out in local
> shuras after bazaars , back rooms and alleys. The drug industry
> and lords will have a say. In a few weeks or month spring will be
> back with warmer weather, the snowbirds or fighters will migrate
> back to the central highlands from Quetta and Karachi, dig up
> weapons in caches around Tarin Kowt and fighting season will start
> again.

> I hate to be cynical, but if or when this coronavirus hit
> Afghanistan, it will be very easy for the US and NATO to pull
> out.

> I just found this:
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN2060L4
> If it is in Iran, it is or will be soon in Afghanistan. There is
> no border control between the two countries.

We don't know how the Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) is going to affect
the world in the next couple of months.

And you've given a good example. A big virus outbreak in Afghanistan
would change everything. Iran is already suffering from the virus
because China is buying far less oil from Iran, and Iran's economy is
already sick. If there's a big outbreak in Iran, and it's blamed on
the fact that the leadership ignored it until it was too late, that
could cause a palace coup.

There's a lot of nervousness among medical analysts that we might
still see a big explosion. Of course, here in the United States, or
in Britain or Europe, we all have sophisticated medical
infrastructures, so we'll stop it in its tracks if it gets here.

Oh wait a minute. Singapore has a very sophisticated medical
infrastructure, and some analysts are saying that it will have to burn
through Singapore. Japan is also a modern developed nation, and it's
spreading across the entire country.

The same is true in China. The Chinese are claiming that it's
contained now, but of course that just means the epiceneter, Hubei
province. China has 1.4 billion people, and it may already have
spread to even millions of people without the CCP yet knowing it.

The problem is that it's apparently possible to spread the disease
asymptomatically. A person may become infected, and then spread it to
many other period during the 14-24 day incubation period, before he
even knows he has it.

The authorities are aware of all that, but are hoping that, at least
when warmer weather comes in April or May, the virus will stop
spreading. But I've heard several experts say that they don't know
whether or not warm weather will stop the spread of the virus. And
they don't know whether it will then start to spread in the
southern hemisphere, in Australia, South America, South Africa,
and so forth.

And those are developed countries. We don't know what will happen if
it spreads to underdeveloped countries in Central Asia, Africa,
and elsewhere.

So if the current glide path to "normalcy" continues, then the
crisis should be all over in two or three months. But if there
are very bombshells -- large unexpected outbreaks in various parts
of the world -- the the world may look very different in two or
three months.

[John]

** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Pandemics in liberal democracies

I just heard an interview on the BBC World Service where the guy said
that he expects the "liberal democracies" to experience pandemics, and
then what they'll have to do is let the virus spread, and then treat
the severe cases in hospitals.

The last I heard, the death rate is 2.1%. So that would imply that
the world population will be 2.1% smaller a year from now.

That would be good news for climate change activists.

[Navigator]

I cannot believe it, but it appears that the CCP is admitting that their own BioResearch lab in Wuhan may actually be the source of the virus.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... atory.html

[John]

** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Wuhan coronavirus laboratory

> I cannot believe it, but it appears that the CCP is admitting that
> their own BioResearch lab in Wuhan may actually be the source of
> the virus.

> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... atory.html

It's hard to know what to make of this article, since the claims are
still speculative.

At the very least, it means that the Chinese themselves aren't sure
whether the source of the virus is natural or man-made.

I also wonder what's going to happen to the authors, Botao Xiao and
Lei Xiao. I hope they enjoy living in a bottomless pit.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan

The year of laughable peace agreements ...

The Language of Nonsense™ comes after the Language of Diplomacy™ and before the Language of Force™ (violence).

When the Language of Nonsense™ comes AFTER the Language of Force™, the Language of Force™ is simply taking a breather.

It's not WHO is talking,.. it's which language they are using.

One can only use that which one can understand.

[Navigator]

I think that the Xiao's article may have gotten through the cracks somehow, but will quickly be quashed.

I think the CCP will eventually put the blame on USA/the West for infecting them.

During the 2008/9 recession, when Chinese factories had to lay off workers due to lack of demand, they didn't tell the workers that lack of orders was the reason. Instead, they told the workers that the American's had "refused to pay their bills". Meaning it was the Americans doing bad things that had resulted in the economic hardship.

In the end, the CCP will always put the blame on someone else. For anything that goes wrong. And I also believe that this will eventually lead to war.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

SUGGESTION:

Hey, John,..

I've been wondering if an interesting "metric" for use with GD Theory might be the percentage of a population who can physically speak with a Grandparent (and perhaps Great Grandparent), with a heavier "weight" being with MALE predecessors?

Let's call that quotient the "GQ", for "Grand Quotient", for brevity.

Since "living memory" is such a vital part of GD Theory, that "comm link" quotient may be indicative of... something.

My "guess" would be that a "low quotient" would predispose a population to "existential anxiety", with a subsequent acceleration toward fanaticism and fratricidal fragmentation. That would result in all the various "blowback" phenomena of "power capture", isolationism, and military expansion.

By "power capture" I mean some faction capturing internal political power (ultimately via violence) and using it to suppress "dissent", creating a "one party totalitarian state".


Now, my suspicion is that while the GQ in a population is relatively stable through time, there may be a statistically significant uptick (or downtick) at SOME point, or points, whose generational positioning (and amplitude?) might help diagnose SOMETHING about the upcoming cycle, such as severity or timing.

Questions such as "Do you talk with your Grandfather about the old days?", "Is your Grandfather a wise man?", and "Do you love your Grandmother's cooking?" might be worth asking.

Aloha a me nā mahalo. <shaka nui!>

[Guest]

The authorities are aware of all that, but are hoping that, at least
when warmer weather comes in April or May, the virus will stop
spreading. But I've heard several experts say that they don't know
whether or not warm weather will stop the spread of the virus. And
they don't know whether it will then start to spread in the
southern hemisphere, in Australia, South America, South Africa,
and so forth.

Singapore is hot and humid year round.