Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

mooreupp wrote:Forgot this thread existed and happy to find. Will have download book. Thanks John
Xeraphim1 wrote:My copy arrived yesterday. Looking forward to reading it over the weekend.
Thanks guys!

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 15-Jun-2019 World View: Hong Kong government backs down on extradiction law

After a week of Hong Kong's largest pro-democracy protests
since the 1997 handover of Britain's colony to China, and
perhaps the largest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre,
Hong Kong's government temporarily backed down on the passage
of the disputed extradition law.

The law would permit Hong Kong's government to extradite anyone in
Hong Kong -- citizens, businessmen and tourists alike -- to China, to
be tried by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thugs in Beijing courts.
When Britain handed Hong Kong over to China in 1997, there was a "one
country, two systems" agreement that would allow HK to retain its own
social legal and political systems. There was a strong firewall in
the agreement between the two legal systems that the extradition law
would breach.

China already feels free to abduct people in Hong Kong, and has done
so. But these abductions have generated bad publicity for the CCP.
Under the extradition law, the CCP can simply order Hong Kong to
arrest anyone, even someone passing through the airport, and ship him
off to the CCP thungs in Beijing.

With activisits planning massive new pro-democracy demonstrations on
Sunday, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, who was selected by Beijing,
announced on Saturday:
"After repeated internal deliberations over the last
two days, I now announce that the government has decided to
suspend the legislative amendment exercise, restart our
communication with all sectors of society, do more explanation
work and listen to different views of society."
Activists are demanding that the extradition law be scrapped
completely, so this temporary suspension will not satisfy
activists.

As positions have hardened, this issue has taken on a symbolism
that goes far beyond Hong Kong.

Hardliners in Beijing will be strengthened, and are blaming
the situation of Xi Jinping, who has personal responsibility
for Hong Kong. Xi's position as "dictator for life" is
not 100% secure, and a palace coup would undoubtedly bring
to power someone younger and even more bellicose and belligerent.

Hardliners in Taiwan will also be strengthened. China has been using
a carrot and stick approach with Taiwan. On the one hand, Chinese
officials say that any move toward independence would result in
military reprisals. On the other hand, China has been on a continual
charm offensive to convince the Taiwanese people how much better off
they'd be as a province of China. Part of that charm offensive has
been to claim that Taiwan could have the same "one country, two
systems" perks that Hong Kong has. The protests in Hong Kong have
emboldened the pro-independence factions.

In my new book, War between China and Japan, I emphasized that my
criticisms of China are with the CCP, not with the Chinese people.

The following table appears later in my book. The table shows the
average IQ (intelligence) and income for several countries, ranked by
IQ, based on 9 international studies conducted between 1990-2010:

Code: Select all

  Rank    Country                IQ   Income per capita
    1     Singapore              108  $25,407
    2     Hong Kong              108  $25,419
    3     Taiwan                 106  $25,000
    4     South Korea            106  $13,710
    5     Japan                  105  $36,785
    6     China                  104  $ 1,375
    27    United States           98  $36,609
[/b]


You can see from this table that the Chinese people are extremely
intelligent, but that the income of the Chinese people in Taiwan
and Hong Kong is ten times as great as that of the Chinese
people in China, and the quality of life is much better. The
same is true of Hong Kong, which was a British colony until 1997.

This is an important point. Some people who reviewed early versions
of this book criticized it because it seemed to be racist to say that
the Chinese people were totally incompetent. But this is not about
race. The Chinese are great people, and very intelligent. The really
stupid people in China are those in the CCP, who only care about
keeping their power and their money and their mistresses, and don't
care about the devastation they're causing to the great Chinese
people.

Every year, the Chinese people in Taiwan (and Hong Kong) are
substantially more successful than the Chinese people in China. This
is a major embarrassment and humiliation to the CCP. No wonder the
CCP would like to destroy Taiwan's government, so that the Chinese
people in Taiwan will be as poor and miserable as the Chinese people
in China.

The same is also true of Japan. Japan has repeatedly and consistently
bested China in all areas -- economically, diplomatically, militarily,
and in governance. The bottom line appears to be the fact that the
reason that China suffered a "Century of Humiliation" is because they
were inferior to Japan, time after time.

This is not because the Chinese people are inferior. In fact, the
same Chinese people in Taiwan and colonial Hong Kong have also beaten
the Chinese people in China, by a factor of ten. It's the Chinese
government that's inferior to the governments of Japan, Taiwan and
South Korea. The great and brilliant Chinese people are being led by
corrupt idiots in the CCP.

The Chinese are running out of time in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and they
know it. The survivors of Mao's Communist Revolution are almost all
gone now, and the younger generations are increasingly anti-communist
and pro-democracy and pro-independence. At the same time, China's own
economy is hugely unstable and under pressure from the US tariffs.
China's entire business model, which involves stealing intellectual
property from the West, is also under attack.

China cannot tolerate this situation much longer. For 30 years, China
has been conducting a vitriolic hate campaign against Japan, and has
been planning for war to annex Taiwan and exterminate the Japanese.
The Chinese do not want war with the US (because they like us), but
they've been preparing for full-scale war with the US because they
know that the US will defend Japan and Taiwan.

----- Sources:

-- Bowing to pressure, Hong Kong leader suspends extradition bill
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hong ... SKCN1TG01Z
(Reuters, 15-Jun-2019)

-- Hong Kong unrest alarms Taiwan with wary eye on China
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/as ... l-11629986
(ChannelNewsAsia/AFP, 15-Jun-2019)

-- Hong Kong tycoons start moving assets offshore as fears rise over
new extradition law
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/as ... n-11628446
(ChannelNewsAsia/Reuters, 14-Jun-2019)

-- China's Hard Line in Hong Kong Boosts Beijing Critics in Taiwan
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -in-taiwan
(Bloomberg, 13-Jun-2019)

---- Related:

World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2)
by John James Xenakis
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

So I take it that I should probably leave Seoul before the end of July?

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

Guest wrote:So I take it that I should probably leave Seoul before the end of July?
You have a big decision to make. You have my sympathy.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 16-Jun-2019 Trade negotiations Japan 1980s vs China today

A magazine editor is writing an article comparing today's trade
war with China vs the trade war between Reagan and Japan
in the 1980s. The following are her questions and my responses:

1) Is this trade war between China and the US in any
way similar to the one led by Reagan between Japan and the US,
where Tokyo had been accused of intellectual property theft among
other things? If so, can the US and China learn anything from
it?"
The 1980s trade war with Japan is almost completely irrelevant, since
it was much smaller, involving only a few specific products, and
because Japan is an honest negotiator, unlike China. The 1980s trade
war was actually about trade, while the current trade war is about
geopolitics and national security.

China is contemptuous of international law, claiming that it suffered
from "a century of humiliation" because of "unfair treaties." In
researching my book, this led me to a question that I've never seen
discussed: Since the West tried to impose the same "unfair treaties"
on Japan, why didn't Japan also suffer a "century of humiliation"?


What I discovered is that Japan has repeatedly and consistently
bested China in all areas -- economically, diplomatically, militarily,
and in governance. The bottom line appears to be the fact that
the reason that China suffered a "Century of Humiliation" is because
they were inferior to Japan, time after time.

This is not because the Chinese people are inferior. In fact, the
same Chinese people in Taiwan and colonial Hong Kong have also beaten
the Chinese people in China, by a factor of ten. It's the Chinese
government that's inferior to the governments of Japan, Taiwan and
South Korea. The great and brilliant Chinese people are being led by
corrupt idiots in the CCP.

So when you compare trade negotiations with Japan and China, you
have to understand that Japan is committed to observing international
law and its own commitments, whereas China has no intention of
observing international law and its own commitments, and has repeatedly
said that international law is irrelevant compared to Chinese law.
We see this in the South China Sea, where the Chinese have become
international criminals with respect to international law (which they
say doesn't apply to them), and in Xinjiang province, where they're
conducting genocide and ethnic cleansing of Uighurs.

When the Chinese recently reneged on their agreements with the US
trade negotiators, what they suddenly threw out was all the written
agreements related to stealing intellectual property.

In fact, it's much worse than that. The Chinese really said "f--k
you" to the American negotiators when they passed the Foreign
Investment Law in March. It allows any Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
official to visit any foreign-owned business and demand copies of all
confidential company business records and company data, as well as its
source code and all other intellectual property. Compliance is
required.

This is the law of the land now in China, and it's the way that the
Chinese do business, unlike the Japanese. So US-Japan trade
deals are completely irrelevant to US-China trade negotiations.
"2) Do you think this trade war could escalate in a
real war? What could trigger it? China has recently said it won't
shoot first but Beijing will be ready to fight if the US launches
an attack."
If you want to compare the current trade negotiations to historical
trade issues with Japan, the correct analogy is not the 1980s.
The correct analogy is 1941.

Japan invaded China in 1937, and on August 1, 1941, US president
Franklin Roosevelt showed his displeasure by establishing an embargo
on oil and gasoline exports to Japan. Three months later, Japan
attacked Pearl Harbor.

The CCP government is highly dysfunctional and delusionsal, and is
losing control of many of its 1.4 billion people. They're already
violently attacking Buddhists, Christians, Muslims and Falun Gong
practitioners, out of a paranoid fear that any of these religious
groups could trigger an anti-government rebellion.

So we're headed to a world war with China with 100% certainty. And it
might be triggered by the trade dispute, but the CCP is so
dysfunctional and delusional that there are many other events and
incidents that could trigger it.

In my opinion, a more likely scenario that could start a world war
could come out of China's aggressive illegal fishing operations.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warn ... war-2019-1

This past week, a Chinese vessel intentionally rammed and sank a
Philippines fishing vessel. This kind of thing could easily trigger a
war.
https://www.rappler.com/nation/233107-p ... ip-assault

If you get my book, then read section 18.3: "How World War II started
-- someone had to pee." In today's febrile world, any event of any
kind can start a war.
"3) Trade war, Huawei and tensions in the South China
Sea: why do you think China seems to have become a major source of
problems for Washington from an economic, tech/security and
political point of view?"
I've been writing about Huawei since the whole subject became public
because of statements by Leon Panetta in 2012.

** 14-Oct-12 World View -- Huawei scandal exposes potential
'Cyberwar Pearl Harbor' from China
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e121014

So let me make this clear. I'm the expert on this subject. I worked
for five years developing board-level systems software for embedded
systems. You can ask some politician what he thinks, or some banker
or investor what he thinks, but unless he's worked in the trenches as
I have, then he doesn't know crap. And if you ask a politician, then
chances are he's being paid off by the CCP anyway with bribes and
kickbacks.

So I'm telling you two things: I have the skills to easily implement
an undetectable backdoor in any device like a Huawei router, and there
are many Chinese engineers who also have the skills. I provided some
of the technical details in my book. So the Chinese military could
easily implement an undetectable backdoor in Huawei's devices. All
the military needs to do is take control of a small group of engineers
within Huawei. China has militarized its entire fleet of thousands of
fishing boats, and if it's doing that, then you can be sure that
they've militarized Huawei's chips, which is far easier to do.

And as if we needed any more proof, the Chinese are no longer even
pretending. In November 2017 they passed their National Intelligence
Law that requires all Chinese companies to cooperate with the
military, even when doing so breaks the law. Like the Foreign
Investment Law that was passed in March, the National Intelligence Law
was a real "f--k you" to the entire West.

So here are two things: It's really easy for the Chinese military
to install undetectable backdoors in Huawei devices, and Chinese law
requires Huawei and any other Chinese company to cooperate with
the Chinese military in stealing foreign intelligence. That law
even commits the military to protecting anyone who violates the
law in stealing foreign intelligence.

China's military is preparing for war in every possible way. By
aggressively subsidizing Huawei's 5G products, the CCP's strategy is
to have as much of the global internet running on Huawei devices as
possible. When China launches its war, China's control of the global
internet will give China's military an enormous advantage.

In a related story, China has heavily subsidized the camera drone
company DJI. DJI has sold many thousands of these camera drones in
many countries, and they're used by many organizations for law
enforcement and to examine infrastructure. This past week, the US
Dept of Homeland Security warned that these DJI cameras were sending
sensitive information back to the Chinese military.
https://cbs4indy.com/2019/05/20/homelan ... teal-data/

China's military will analyze the images sent back, using artificial
intelligence algorithms (probably supplied by Google), to create a map
of all the vulnerable targets and people in other countries.

---- Related:

World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2)
by John James Xenakis
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

Aaron C

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Aaron C »

John wrote:
Guest wrote:So I take it that I should probably leave Seoul before the end of July?
You have a big decision to make. You have my sympathy.
Is the situation really that bad?

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Hi John,

I've been reading your pages for many years and I'm forced to agree with you regarding the point that the ground swell of public opinion is what moves and shapes a nation's politics, as seen by the recent demonstrations in Hong Kong. While acknowledging, its absolute influence at the macro level, over the CCP may be ultimately negligible, it does show that even strong leaders (at least at the local level) can be bent to the will of the populous.

However I do have a question regarding the coming war involving China.

Over the years you have consistently stressed the high probability of conflict between China and the US, which seems more sure with every passing day. Yet with your new book and your more recent posts, I get the impression that you see the coming war will be mainly between China and Japan, with America being suck into this vortex more due to its military alliances. An I reading things correctly?

Jack

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4180
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Kindle version purchased.

BTW, I hope you live to see your predictions come true and your vindication.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 17-Jun-2019 World View: China's motives in war against America
Guest wrote: > Hi John, I've been reading your pages for many years and I'm
> forced to agree with you regarding the point that the ground swell
> of public opinion is what moves and shapes a nation's politics, as
> seen by the recent demonstrations in Hong Kong. While
> acknowledging, its absolute influence at the macro level, over the
> CCP may be ultimately negligible, it does show that even strong
> leaders (at least at the local level) can be bent to the will of
> the populous.

> However I do have a question regarding the coming war involving
> China.

> Over the years you have consistently stressed the high probability
> of conflict between China and the US, which seems more sure with
> every passing day. Yet with your new book and your more recent
> posts, I get the impression that you see the coming war will be
> mainly between China and Japan, with America being suck into this
> vortex more due to its military alliances. An I reading things
> correctly? Jack
For over 15 years, I've been writing about China's preparations for
war with the United States, particularly building and deploying one
advanced nuclear-capable ballistic missile system after another with
no purpose other than to attack American cities, aircraft carriers and
bases, as well as massive cyberwar. So there's never been any doubt
that China is planning to launch a war against the United States.

However, I was never entirely comfortable with that prediction, since
there's no apparent hatred of Americans by the Chinese. I've
personally known many Chinese during my life, and they were always
friendly unlike, for example, some Mexicans. Furthermore, Chinese
media has always been critical of US political policies, but there was
no hatred directed at the American people the way there is, for
example, against the Japanese people. In other words, I knew that
China was going to launch a war with the US, but I really didn't know
why.

As a result of research on my book, late last year I had a major
change in views. China does not want war against the United States,
but does want a war of revenge against Japan for the atrocities
committed during WW II. China also wants to invade Taiwan, in order
annex it. China does not want war with the US, but the CCP knows that
it will have no choice, since the US will defend Japan and Taiwan
against China's war of extermination against Japan and war of
annexation against Taiwan.

There's even an alternate explanation for all those missile systems
that China has been developing and deploying for decades. It's
possible that the Chinese believe that just having those missile
systems will serve as a threat to deter the US and to force the US to
remain neutral when China invades Japan and Taiwan. If this is what
the CCP hopes, then it's entirely delusional.

Although I've changed my views about China's motives, the bottom line
is still the same. China has developed these massive nuclear-capable
missile deployments because China expects to use them to attack
the US, and they will. It's just that the motives are different
than I said prreviously.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 17-Jun-2019 Vindication
Tom Mazanec wrote: > Kindle version purchased.
Thanks.
Tom Mazanec wrote: > BTW, I hope you live to see your predictions come true and your
> vindication.
There will be no vindication for me.

The Biblical Jeremiah was thrown into a pit when he predicted the fall
of Jerusalem. He was stoned to death when his predictions came true.

The mythical Cassandra was ridiculed when she predicted the fall of
Troy. After her predictions came true, she was assaulted and raped in
the temple of Apollo. Then she became the slave and mistress of her
captor, the Greek king Agamemnon. She warned Agamemnon that if they
return to Greece then his wife, Clytemnestra, will kill them both.
Agamemnon did not believe her and they returned to Greece, where
Clytemnestra killed them both.

Winston Churchill did better when his predictions came true, but he
was powerful and wealthy, whereas I'm a nobody. After Churchill's
predictions came true, he became prime minister and "saved the world."
When the war ended, he was still hated so much that he lost the
election in his own district.

So people like me never receive vindication. I have absolutely no
hope for vindication, as long as I'm alive. I have one and only one
hope for the rest of my life: that I die quickly and painlessly.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 42 guests