Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 27-Sep-2019 World View: Trump considers blocking all US investments in China

The Trump administration is discussing a major escalation in the
US-China trade war, whose purpose is to curtail or end US investments
in China. China's economy is already suffering because of the
existing trade sanctions, and preventing US investments would cause
severe new disruptions.

Among the options being considered are these:
  • Delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges
  • Limiting Americans’ exposure to the Chinese market through
    government pension funds
It's not clear whether there's a legal way for the administration to
require the delisting of Chinese companies from US stock exchanges,
but if successful it would put harsh new limits on Chinese access to
American dollars.

For example, the MSCI World Index is a broad global equity index that
represents large and mid-cap equity performance across 23 developed
markets countries. According to msci.com, it covers approximately 85%
of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country and
MSCI world index does not offer exposure to emerging markets.

Hundreds of Chinese businesses have been added into the MSCI Inc.’s
indexes since last year, in order to increase the volume of American
investments in China. Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio and
others in Congress have become alarmed by this, and have been
advocating for stronger investment restraints and greater scrutiny for
Chinese companies in stock indexes and U.S. pension funds.

Trump's nominal strategy is to force China to stop intellectual
property theft and forced technology transfers. But as I've written
in the past, the larger picture is that Trump's strategy is to disrupt
disrupt critical places in China's economy in order to stop or slow
its headlong rush to launch a war with Japan, Taiwan and the United
States.

*** 23-Sep-2019 World View: Trump's strategy with China
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=47804#p47804

Escalating the trade sanctions will certainly succeed in disrupting
China's economy further. The intent is to stop or slow its headlong
rush to launch a war with Japan, Taiwan and the United States, but
when sanctions were imposed on Japan in 1941, Japan responded by
bombing Pearl Harbor.

---- Sources:

-- Trump considers delisting Chinese firms from U.S. markets: sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN1WC1VP
(Reuters, 27-Sep-2019)

-- White House deliberates block on all US investments in China
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/27/white-h ... china.html
(CNBC, 27-Sep-2019)

-- China trade talks are set to resume on Oct. 10
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/26/china-t ... ct-10.html
(CNBC, 26-Sep-2019)

-- U.S. Stocks Hit 3-Week Low as Trade Tensions Rise: Markets Wrap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rkets-wrap
(Bloomberg, 27-Sep-2019)

-- White House Weighs Limits on U.S. Portfolio Flows Into China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... a-k12ahk4g
(Bloomberg, 27-Sep-2019)

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 28-Sep-2019 World View: Climate change timeline

OK, here's the final climate change timeline:
  • Today: Climate change currently caused by human
    activities
  • 2020s: World War III. Climate change will be reduced sharply
    for these reasons: (*) Reduction in population or growth of population;
    (*) Widespread destruction of industry (*) Re-growth of forests
    and other oxygen-producing land
  • One question: Tens of thousands of nuclear weapons will be
    deployed. Will nuclear emissions improve or worsen climate change? I
    haven't seen research on this subject, because it's a forbidden topic
    among climate "scientists."
  • 2030s: The Singularity will occur around 2030, and with the world
    flat on its back, AI robots will be used to take on the difficult tasks
    that humans can't easily handle.
  • Some obvious tasks for the AI robots will be cleaning up nuclear
    waste and buried land mines.
  • At the same time, new developments in computer technology,
    biotechnology and nanotechnology will enable AI robots to perform a
    myriad of additional tasks not previously conceivable. Several such
    tasks will undoubtedly be related to removing carbon from the
    atmosphere.
  • 2040s: As AI robots become increasingly skilled and intelligent,
    they'll begin to form and manage small businesses, or even become
    mayors of small towns.
  • 2050s: With AI robots getting much smarter than humans, they'll
    increasingly be in charge of governments and business. During the
    Awakening era, young people will be demonstrating against computer
    overlords and clashing with them. Any war that begins in this time
    frame will be fought by AI robots and under the command of AI
    robots.
  • 2060s: Computer overlords will take charge completely. Dissidents
    will be punished, tortured or killed, just like in China today.
  • 2100: The earth will be one degree warmer, but no one will
    care.

zzazz

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by zzazz »

as gramps often said.......there is no fool like an old fool

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 28-Sep-2019 No fool like an old fool
zzazz wrote:as gramps often said.......there is no fool like an old fool
Image

There's no fool like an old fool.

utahbob
Posts: 138
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:10 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by utahbob »

You might find this interesting: https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/ ... h-forecast

"Going by the first estimate, China's GDP growth [in 2018] was about 1.67%," he said. "And according to the other calculation, the growth rate was negative." Both are a far cry from the 6.6% expansion released by the National Bureau of Statistics....Xiang argued that Beijing's aggressive economic stimulus efforts back up his theory. "If the 6.6% [official growth rate] was accurate, there would be no need to rush to loosen monetary and fiscal policy," he argued. "The only way to interpret it is that China's growth isn't that high."
Asked about the causes of the slowdown, Xiang pointed to the damaged confidence of private business owners as the biggest culprit.

Once I finish your books, this will be next on the reading list: The China Order: Centralia, World Empire, and the Nature of Chinese Power
byFei-Ling Wang

https://www.amazon.com/China-Order-Cent ... ll_reviews

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
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2-Oct-19 World View -- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence

Post by John »

2-Oct-19 World View -- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence

Hong Kong violence may be reaching a boiling point

** 2-Oct-19 World View -- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e191002




Contents:
Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence
Hong Kong violence may be reaching a boiling point


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Hong Kong, umbrella protests,
Mao Zedong, Long March, Taiping Rebellion

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
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Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Just a reminder:
A nuclear war in South Asia would kill more people directly than WWII, and indirectly a significant percentage of the world's population (and the Singularity will not happen in time to save us from nuclear winter, unlike global warming) even if it doesn't spread:
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-india-pak ... eaten.html
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Tom Mazanec wrote:Just a reminder:
A nuclear war in South Asia would kill more people directly than WWII, and indirectly a significant percentage of the world's population (and the Singularity will not happen in time to save us from nuclear winter, unlike global warming) even if it doesn't spread:
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-india-pak ... eaten.html
So much for global warming... :D
It might also plunge the entire planet into a severe cold spell, possibly with temperatures not seen since the last Ice Age.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 03-Oct-2019 World View: The Brexit Game and Boris Johnson's Rube Goldberg proposal

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has proposed a new solution
to the problem of allowing goods to pass over the border between
Ireland and Northern Ireland without requiring customs checks.

The proposal for the last few months has been the "Northern Ireland
backstop," which would keep the boundary open, but would require
either that Northern Ireland become part of Ireland, or that the EU
have control of the UK's laws and courts. Obviously that will never
work.

In fact, it's clear that there is no possibility for the UK to leave
the EU with a "deal," since no acceptable deal exists. The "deal" is
all a part of the game:
  • Boris Johnson knows that no deal is possible, but he doesn't
    want to be blamed for a "no deal Brexit," so he wants to be able to
    blame the EU when no deal is reached.
  • The EU knows that no deal is possible, but they don't want to be
    blamed for a "no deal Brexit," so keep promising that they'll evaluate
    any "deal" that the UK puts forth, even though none is
    acceptable.
  • Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn wants the entire Brexit plan to be
    abandoned completely, but doesn't want to be blamed if Brexit is
    canceled, since that would mean that he ignored the wishes of millions
    of people who voted for Brexit. So he keeps demanding that Johnson
    produce new deals, and then he vitriolically criticizes every
    proposal, and demands a new one. Alternatively, he's demanding a new
    national referendum, in the hope that the vote in a new referendum,
    the vote will be "no".
In summary, there are only two possibilities, Brexit without a deal,
and Remain. A "deal" is impossible, and all sides are using it a ploy
to get what the want, and avoid being blamed.

Image
  • Rube Goldberg device to put toothpaste on a toothbrush.
    The device is operated by pushing the button at step A, and the
    toothpaste reaches the toothbrush after step P.


So on Wednesday, Boris Johnson put forth a Rube Goldberg proposal with
so many parts that it's almost incomprehensible. Johnson's part of
the game is that he has to make a proposal that's different from
previous proposals, and this is it.

He's saying to the EU that if they reject it, there will be a no-deal
Brexit on October 31.

The EU responded: "We want more details. Send us another proposal."
The game goes on.

There are some scenarios where the October 31 date will be extended,
although a lot of people in the EU and UK are saying that they've been
debating this for three years, they're sick of it, and they just want
to get it over with, even if "it" is a no-deal Brexit.

---- Source:

-- Brexit: New UK plan for Northern Ireland to stay in single market
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49909309
(BBC, 2-Oct-2019)

---- Related article:

** 25-Sep-19 World View -- The Brexit comedy continues as the UK Supreme Court repudiates Boris Johnson
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190925

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 04-Oct-2019 World View: Hong Kong face mask ban triggers more anger

It's just past midnight on Saturday morning in Hong Kong,
and a new "emergency" law has just taken effect that makes it
illegal for anyone taking part in a protest to wear a face mask.
Violating this law can be punished with one year in jail.

When the law was announced on Friday afternoon, masses of young
people went to convenience stores and bought face masks,
and began blocking roads wearing these face masks.

Live shots from Hong Kong on the BBC show large numbers of protesters
blocking intersections after midnight, wearing face masks.

It's not known how the police will enforce the face mask rule on
Saturday. Will they start ripping people's face masks off? Will
there be mass arrests of people wearing face masks?

The protests are being led by young people who see 2047 as just around
the corner, at which time Hong Kong will lose all its autonomy and
just be another region under the violent thumb of the Chinese
Communist Party. Any young person would be wondering how he or she
could get married and bring children into the world, if it means
making their children slaves of the CCP.

---- Source:

-- Hong Kong: Face mask ban prompts thousands to protest
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-49939173
(BBC, 4-Oct-2019)

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