Generational Dynamics World View News

[Tom Mazanec]

It has been speculated here that October is the most likely time for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. As we saw in Ukraine that is not something you do at the drop of a hat, and the Russians did not have to cross a channel. Now that August is mostly over, how much longer till we see preparations for such an invasion or decide that this is not it?

[NoMansLand]

Do you mean Final prep such as massing troops and transport capabilities, or more national stage level prep?

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/08/chi ... ufacturers.

I would have sworn you posted that story earlier Tom but I couldn't find it here.

[thomasglee]

Do you mean Final prep such as massing troops and transport capabilities, or more national stage level prep?

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/08/chi ... ufacturers.

I would have sworn you posted that story earlier Tom but I couldn't find it here.

This might be the post you are thinking about...

One thing we know, however. With the Chinese economy contracting, Beijing will not be able to afford the most rapid military build-up since the Second World War. Chinese leaders must see a closing window of opportunity. Their motto for the generals and admirals: Use it or lose it.

China's Strategic Incoherence on Taiwan Shows Ominous Mindset

[Tom Mazanec]

Do you mean Final prep such as massing troops and transport capabilities, or more national stage level prep?

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/08/chi ... ufacturers.

I would have sworn you posted that story earlier Tom but I couldn't find it here.

Final prep.

[Tom Mazanec]

DEATH TO THE WEST Russia threatens West with nuclear war & vows to prepare BOMB SHELTERS in rage over Putin guru daughter assassination
Ethan Singh
9:58 ET, Aug 23 2022Updated: 10:01 ET, Aug 24 2022
https://www.the-sun.com/news/6060220/ru ... rs-dugina/

Punishment Time: Car Bomb Sends Russia Into Peak Menace Mode
Julia Davis
Published Aug. 22, 2022 7:00PM ET
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-ca ... rya-dugina

In Ukraine, a Nuclear Plant Held Hostage
August 23, 2022in News
https://dnyuz.com/2022/08/23/in-ukraine ... d-hostage/

The Conflict Between The West And Russia Is A Religious One
21837 ViewsAugust 23, 2022 80 Comments
by Emmet Sweeney for the Saker blog
http://thesaker.is/the-conflict-between ... gious-one/

Oil Spikes After Local Media Reports 'No Iran Nuclear Deal'
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, AUG 24, 2022 - 12:37 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-s ... clear-deal

[FullMoon]

Do you mean Final prep such as massing troops and transport capabilities, or more national stage level prep?

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/08/chi ... ufacturers.

I would have sworn you posted that story earlier Tom but I couldn't find it here.

This might be the post you are thinking about...

One thing we know, however. With the Chinese economy contracting, Beijing will not be able to afford the most rapid military build-up since the Second World War. Chinese leaders must see a closing window of opportunity. Their motto for the generals and admirals: Use it or lose it.

China's Strategic Incoherence on Taiwan Shows Ominous Mindset

"Because China is doing something that makes no strategic sense, there must be something terribly wrong inside the Chinese political system at the moment"

The crisis intensifies across most fronts. When they get US inflamed and distracted, the destruction of our own democracy will overshadow that of that faraway waterway. Their proxies are determined to bring down this republic through the same level of foolishness as CCP exhibits.
A contested election, market crash, new virus, police shooting or possibly something new added to the proven repertoire.

[FullMoon]

It has been speculated here that October is the most likely time for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. As we saw in Ukraine that is not something you do at the drop of a hat, and the Russians did not have to cross a channel. Now that August is mostly over, how much longer till we see preparations for such an invasion or decide that this is not it?

They want control of the waterways. If anything happens this autumn, they'll probably pick up some islands and consolidate. It's proven successful up to this point. But in war we should expect the unexpected.
Xi PigKing will want few surprises before coronation.

[NoMansLand]

It has been speculated here that October is the most likely time for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. As we saw in Ukraine that is not something you do at the drop of a hat, and the Russians did not have to cross a channel. Now that August is mostly over, how much longer till we see preparations for such an invasion or decide that this is not it?

They want control of the waterways. If anything happens this autumn, they'll probably pick up some islands and consolidate. It's proven successful up to this point. But in war we should expect the unexpected.
Xi PigKing will want few surprises before coronation.

They may already be in the initial stages of buildup under the guise of domestic relief programs. As an example, just this week the CCP announced they were going to try to make it rain by seeding clouds. This sounds insane to me. Even IF it works, the amount of chemicals, equipment, and men needed to achieve an effective level of mitigation over that much raw acreage would be staggering. However, the humanitarian pain it could alleviate makes mobilizing any and all resources look down right noble. If anyone in the, at least American, press questioned any of the movements they will be accused of wanting Chinese children to starve and will shrink back into their hole.

On the other hand, it has been said that the Chinese may be watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine and trying to learn any lessons they can. The Russians were supremely confident that they would be welcomed as liberators (That sounds familiar...) and the weight of the Russian army would crush the few holdouts in a timely manner. Chinese hubris has historically been just as powerful as Russian or US versions, and they may be recalculating based on what they have seen in reality.

Regarding Xi and not wanting to rock the boat for fear of losing power, the current speculation is that the Chinese plan to hold their congress, ie. refresh Xi's mandate, in November. An event like this takes time to coordinate and plan. Given that, if you work backwards 18ish months, it is possible that there was a timeline where Xi was going to present the reunified island as a prize to cement his position.

Finally, I can see a case where even the Chinese don't actually know when or if they will kick off a forceful reunification. They may be waiting for some other condition to be met that we haven't even factored in. Stereotypes are bad, but for some reason I keep thinking of the old "inscrutable Asian" cliche' from the '70s.

[FullMoon]

They've been cloud seeding for a while now.
Everyone is learning the flow of the conflict, yes. Russia was held up strongly and the US has support for E Asia of which they must be thinking hard about.
Xi is, by most accounts, a shoo-in for election. He's spent his 10 years in power relentlessly eliminating opposition and promoting his own sycophants. Any mistake before election could undo all of his efforts. But of course they have plans and are waiting for the time when it all comes together. But we something is going to give and probably soon.

[Tom Mazanec]

Will The UN’s Ukraine Grain Deal Fail?
gCaptain
13.8K subscribers
1,897 views Aug 20, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnBWa50WamU

U.S. senator arrives in Taiwan, defying angry Beijing
Reporting by Ben Blanchard in Taipei and Michael Martina and Susan Heavey in Washington; Editing by Howard Goller, Alistair Bell and Sandra Maler
August 25, 2022
3:13 PM EDT
Last Updated 6 hours ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 022-08-25/

Putin orders Russian military to increase its forces as Ukraine war passes the six-month mark
The Russian leader's decree will increase the number of service members in the country's armed forces by 137,000.
Aug. 25, 2022, 8:35 AM EDT / Updated Aug. 25, 2022, 11:46 AM EDT
By Yuliya Talmazan
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/puti ... -rcna44774

Friends of Putin Critic Found Dead in D.C. Spurn Suicide Theory
Allison Quinn, Zachary Petrizzo
Wed, August 24, 2022 at 11:53 PM·8 min read
https://news.yahoo.com/friends-putin-cr ... 32797.html

Will Putin's troops cause another Chernobyl disaster? Russian-held nuclear plant is cut off from Ukraine's power grid due to nearby FIRE – risking cooling system failure
By RACHAEL BUNYAN and ADAM SOLOMONS and ELENA SALVONI FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 04:19 EDT, 25 August 2022 | UPDATED: 21:01 EDT, 25 August 2022
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -grid.html

Six months of war in Ukraine — and it's only growing more dangerous
Tracy Wilkinson, Laura King
Wed, August 24, 2022 at 5:00 AM·7 min read
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-marks-in ... 39487.html

Ukrainian Nuclear Plant Was Cut From Power Grid For 1st Time In History
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, AUG 25, 2022 - 12:21 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... me-history